Like Liverpool: will Kiel also score at the Alte Försterei?
After last Saturday’s embarrassing performance in Dortmund, Union Berlin are keen to make amends in the top flight. Eight days after the 6-0 defeat at Signal-Iduna-Park, the Irons are facing the bottom-placed team at home, who are still waiting for their first three points in the second half of the season. The team, coached by Steffen Baumgart, has therefore firmly planned for a three-pointer and is primarily hoping for home advantage at the Alte Försterei. Nevertheless, the Union Berlin vs. Kiel betting tip seems to be on the home side, especially since it is not particularly attractively priced.
At the bookmakers that enable sports betting with Paysafecard, only odds of around 1.60 are offered for the home win before the Union Berlin vs. Kiel encounter. These are associated with a probability of over 60%, which is ambitious considering that the capital club has only won six times this season. And that despite the fact that the guests from the Baltic Sea have not yet managed to score a single away goal in this season after 23 match days and still have huge defensive problems.
Meanwhile, in the run-up to the basement duel between Union Berlin and Kiel, it can be predicted that the Irons could potentially take a decisive step away from the relegation zone if they win at home. With a double-digit cushion of points, the spectre of relegation should (temporarily) disappear from Köpenick.
Union Berlin vs. Kiel AI prediction
The artificial intelligence simulation for the Union Berlin vs. Kiel clash is largely in line with the betting odds offered by the bookmakers. Therefore, the “BETSiE” has not identified any value in the three-way market. This results in an xG difference that does not exceed the absolute value of 1.0, thus suggesting an Asian handicap bet. For the corresponding Union Berlin vs. Kiel AI prediction on the +1 (AH), the Bet365 app offers a 1.81.
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
The relationship between Steffen Baumgart and Union Berlin is definitely not a particularly intimate one yet. The coach, who also played for the club as a professional, only managed seven out of a possible 24 points in his first eight Bundesliga games. In fact, the Irons have only managed two wins in their last 16 matches in the German top flight. For this reason alone, it is out of the question to bet on the home win between Union Berlin and Kiel at the low odds. Only a odds boost or a match combo with increased prices would lead to a potential rethink.
Baumgart expects a reaction from his team
In particular, the lackluster performance in Dortmund last week was a clear sign that a lot is currently amiss at the former Champions League participant. Since match day nine, only 1. FC Heidenheim have collected fewer points in the Bundesliga than the Irons, who have also never scored less often after 23 match days. The offensive has gone without scoring ten times this season.
At least the latter should change on Sunday afternoon, because the capital club can generally be trusted to do better at home than away. In their own home stadium, the FCU has four wins, four draws and only three defeats. 16 of the 24 points in total come from home games. Also interesting: the Berliners have not lost any of their previous eleven Bundesliga home games against promoted teams (8-3-0).
Considering that the next games will be against Frankfurt, Bayern, Freiburg, Wolfsburg and Leverkusen, Baumgart’s charges would be well advised to go for a win. However, this approach could once again lead to carelessness in the work against the ball, which is why I am considering a prediction for the goals of both teams for the Sunday thriller Union Berlin against Kiel, despite only eleven goals conceded at the Alte Försterei (3rd in the league).
In four of the last six Bundesliga home games, a corresponding bet would have paid off. Alternatively, Benedict Hollerbach is emerging as a possible scorer (3.10 @Bet365). The Iron top scorer has scored four of his six goals this season in his own stadium.
Kiel – Statistics & current form
What do Liverpool FC and Holstein Kiel have in common? They are in fact the only two teams in the European top five leagues that have managed to score at least one goal in all away games this season. While the Reds are leading the league in England by a huge margin and are marching towards their 20th league title, the Störche are facing relegation in Germany.
KSV Holstein rarely manage to score a goal
Nevertheless, it is equally impressive and curious that the promoted team from the fjord was challenged a total of eleven times away from home in 2024/25 and never went home without scoring. Only six teams in total have scored more goals in opposing stadiums than KSV Holstein, whose 18 goals were only enough for three (!) points. The promoted surprise team is still waiting for their first away win in the Bundesliga and, with a 0-3-8 record, is the second-weakest away team in the league. The main reason for this is that they have conceded 30 goals – almost three on average per game on foreign pitches.
In general, it has been a good idea this season to bet on overbetting in the matches of coach Marcel Rapp’s team. For example, in nine of the last ten Bundesliga matches involving KSV, both teams scored. Over the course of the entire season, both teams scored in 17 of 23 Holstein league matches. Before the clash between Union Berlin and Kiel, the odds are logically 100% for away goals, which is why it is tempting not to deviate from this approach.
Incidentally, the fact that the Rapp team is virtually forced to play for victory in Berlin after only two points from the last six games and slipping to the bottom of the table also speaks in favor of this. The storks want to take an example from the strong final phase in Munich, in which three goals were scored, or the 2-2 draw in Wolfsburg. However, it will be even more important to minimize the defensive weakness, especially since the bottom-placed team has conceded at least two goals in 13 of the last 14 league games. You can get a 1.57 bet on the Betway app if you think that the Bundesliga’s most vulnerable defense will concede two or more goals again.
Union Berlin – Kiel direct comparison / H2H record
At the beginning of January, the clubs played a test match in preparation for the remaining round. Kiel won 2-1. In professional football, however, the storks have yet to record a victory against Union Berlin. After five meetings in the top two leagues, the Iron have a 4-1-0 record. The first leg was won by the Köpenickers thanks to Tom Rothe with 2:1. The full-back was still on the pitch for Holstein last season, celebrated the promotion and became a match winner in mid-October with a goal and an assist against his former employer.
Union Berlin – Kiel Tip
Important points will be handed out in the bottom half of the table on Sunday afternoon. Admittedly, KSV Holstein needs them even more than the Irons. At the bottom of the table, the storks are only aiming for the relegation place, even though coach Marcel Rapp’s team has scored at least once in all Bundesliga away games so far. Generally speaking, the offensive output of the guests from the Baltic Sea is not even close to being the problem. Instead, it is the incredibly vulnerable defense that regularly undermines better results.
Given that the Irons are not playing the stars from the sky at the moment either and even got beaten 6-0 in Dortmund, I think there is a lot to suggest that the back lines will not leave the yard without conceding a goal again. I therefore see outstanding value in the bet on “both teams to score” between Union Berlin and Kiel at a maximum rate of 1.76, which is why I am risking a confident bet with seven out of a possible ten units.