Will BVB successfully take the lead at home?
In 2023/24, reaching the final of the UEFA Champions League outshone a very sobering BVB season on the domestic front. This season, the black and yellows are in danger of suffering exactly the same fate. While Borussia is lagging far behind its own expectations in the Bundesliga, at least in the premier league, a lot seems possible.
In any case, in the round of 16, Kovac’s team has an opponent that is absolutely feasible on paper. However, should the tip about the Bundesliga club progressing between Dortmund and Lille come true, Barcelona would probably be waiting in a potential round of 16.
But before that, the full focus is on the French first division club, which was certainly one of the biggest surprise teams in the league phase and was able to qualify directly for this round of 16. Among others, “Les Dogues” beat Real and Atletico Madrid in the preliminary round.
Jonathan David and Co. should not be underestimated under any circumstances. Nevertheless, when predicting the outcome of the game, the question must of course be asked as to whether the team, which is still quite inexperienced at this level, will be able to perform to its full potential in a knockout game in front of almost 80,000 spectators at the yellow wall.
The bookmakers, who enable sports betting with the Paysafecard, are also rather skeptical about the LOSC chances. At least for the first leg, the Dortmund vs. Lille odds leave the guest from northern France as clear outsiders. In the event of an away win, a five-fold stake could be collected. Even in the event of a draw, Bet365 will pay out four times the stake.
Dortmund vs. Lille Forecast AI
While the bookmakers with a German license were already quite optimistic in their assessment of the matter on Tuesday evening, the AI tops even that level of confidence. “BETSiE” sees an almost 60% probability of victory for BVB, so that even the 1.73 at Oddset on the Dortmund home success brings value. Even the Asian handicap (-0.75 AH) can easily be played according to the artificial intelligence at xG from 2.04 to 1.1. However, according to “BETSiE”, there is no way around the Dortmund vs. Lille AI prediction for BVB’s triumph.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
It seems as if Borussia Dortmund is out of the woods in terms of form. After the temporary low point was reached after the 2-0 defeat in Bochum, the Black and Yellows have recently been able to stabilise noticeably again and achieve better results. Against Sporting Lisbon, a good half in two games was enough to survive the playoffs unscathed, and in the Bundesliga, the in-form competition from Berlin-Köpenick (6-0) and Hamburg-St. Pauli (2-0) obviously at the right time.
BVB wants and needs to take advantage of the home bonus
Nevertheless, it is positive to note that BVB have now kept three of their last four competitive clean sheets and have at least put themselves back in contention at the national level when it comes to having a say in the CL ticket allocation. In general, Niko Kovac has recently managed to strike a better balance between intensive defensive work and creative offensive ideas. Given that a lot is at stake in the first leg at Signal-Iduna-Park on Tuesday evening, it is quite possible that the betting odds for a game with few goals will once again prevail between Dortmund and Lille.
However, the odds for last year’s finalist to win at home are also attractive, especially since BVB have only lost one of their last 16 home CL games (10-5-1). In the knockout phase, the Ruhr Valley team even went five consecutive matches without defeat (4-1-0), keeping a clean sheet four times. Home advantage also plays a major role in my considerations, which is also due to the fact that LOSC Lille has a fairly young team that, especially in knockout games, is far from having the experience of Borussia.
Anyone who therefore wants to bet on the favorites’ success on Tuesday evening will find odds of no more than 1.73 at Oddset before the first duel between Dortmund and Lille. Another betting tip is a goal from Serhou Guirassy. The attacker has already scored 14 goals in the Bundesliga, most recently against Union and St. Pauli, and also leads the scoring charts in the UEFA Champions League.
The summer signing has scored a whopping ten goals in ten appearances. On Tuesday, Guirassy, who was once under contract with LOSC, will have to beat the youngest remaining keeper in this competition at 23 years of age. Nevertheless, Lucas Chevalier is statistically one of the three best goalkeepers in the current CL season. If Guirassy scores, 2.20 is the maximum odds.
Lille – Statistics & current form
For the first time since 2021/22 and for only the third time in their history, Lille have reached the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League. However, the northern French side have never made it to the quarter-finals of Europe’s premier club competition. The bookmakers are once again giving the underdogs against Dortmund the worse odds. In the Betano app, a 2.37 is offered for the underdog to advance. With the €20 free bet from Betano, you could also try out such a bet risk-free.
Can the Lille Doges also convince in the knockout phase?
The fact is that the guest from the Belgian border should not be underestimated. The team of head coach Bruno Génésio made a very strong impression in the league phase. In particular, LOSC caused two major upsets in the early days of the competition, beating Real Madrid 1-0 at home and 3-1 away, before going on to beat Feyenoord, Sturm Graz and Bologna to finish a strong seventh in the league phase and avoid the playoffs.
One of the secrets of their success is undoubtedly their efficiency, with around one in every five shots on target crossing the goal line. Only Feyenoord Rotterdam outdid their own xG value more clearly than LOSC, who scored a whopping 17 goals from 9.6xG. The Doges don’t need many chances and will therefore take a wait-and-see approach on Tuesday evening.
Génésio’s players will be particularly on the lookout for chances to switch play, especially since the aforementioned Jonathan David, a real difference-maker, will be running around. The Canadian, who is being courted by many top clubs, has scored six goals in this CL season and, in the 4-2-3-1 system, is the only striker to be used again and again by very fast wingers.
Despite the many positive signs, it must be said in conclusion that the form before this highlight game in front of almost 80,000 spectators could definitely be better. At the weekend, for example, LOSC lost 4-1 to Paris St. Germain. Fifth place in Ligue 1 with only 11 wins from 24 games does not necessarily match the increased expectations of the red and whites, who, to make matters worse, were knocked out at the start of the month by a second division team in the national cup.
If you want to bet that the away team will hold its own well and only have to give in to the pressure of the home side as the game progresses, you should consider a prediction on the double result HTX/FT1 before the first leg of Dortmund against Lille.
Dortmund – Lille Head to head / H2H record
The only two direct duels took place over 20 years ago. In 2001/02, Borussia Dortmund reached the quarter-finals of the UEFA Cup thanks to the away goals rule, which still existed at the time. In the past four knockout ties against French clubs, however, BVB only advanced once – last season in the semi-finals against PSG. However, Lille have only won two of the past 11 European matches against German teams. The H2h is therefore of little significance for the upcoming encounter.
Dortmund – Lille Betting Tip
One German team will definitely make it to the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. Whether a second Bundesliga team will join them will be decided between Dortmund and Lille. The betting providers give BVB good chances of progressing and also assume that Kovac’s team will achieve a good result in their own stadium on Tuesday evening.
Basically, I agree with this opinion and also predict a home win for the black and yellow in the first leg, who have only lost one of their last 16 home CL games and have even won four of their last five knockout round matches in front of their home fans.
However, since the top odds of 1.73 do not offer me any value and, for example, the strong LOSC results from the league phase are far too weakly weighted, I am deviating from my primary recommendation to an alternative betting market. I am betting on at least one Guirassy goal at odds of 2.20 at Bet365 between Dortmund and Lille.