Will the Dutch say goodbye with their heads held high?

There is no longer any doubt that the writing is on the wall in this English-Dutch duel. For the Boeren, it is now only a matter of bowing out of the competition with dignity. However, there is not much to suggest that betting on another landslide victory for the Gunners will pay off against PSV Eindhoven at Arsenal. With a six-goal lead, it is more likely that one or two players will be rested for the upcoming derby against Chelsea.

Accordingly, the prediction that the Dutch team can achieve a narrow result at the Emirates Stadium is interesting for Arsenal against PSV Eindhoven. It remains to be seen whether it will be enough for a respectable result. However, it is unlikely to be as one-sided as the first leg, especially since both teams will have already shifted their temporary focus to the upcoming task in the league.

For the Gunners, who will face the winner of the Madrid city derby in the quarter-finals, it is still a matter of further improving their strong home record in the Champions League. They have not lost in nine Champions League home games (eight wins, one draw), keeping a clean sheet in eight of those nine games. However, with the possibility of tough rotation, keeping a clean sheet at the Emirates Stadium again is not a sure thing.

Arsenal vs. PSV Eindhoven prediction AI

While we consider a handicap of +2 for the Dutch team to be obvious and thus rule out a Gunners victory by more than one goal, the AI prediction of supercomputer BETSiE aims for exactly that in the Arsenal vs. The AI calculates an expected goals value of 2.37 for the Londoners and only 0.83 for the guests, which corresponds to a difference of 1.54.

Arsenal – Statistics & current form

While they are now 15 points behind league leaders Liverpool in the Premier League, Arsenal have put themselves in an almost perfect position for the second leg with a 7-1 away win in the Champions League first leg. It was the highest away win in a knockout game in the history of the Champions League and the highest number of goals scored by the Gunners in a European Cup game since October 2007 (7-0 against Slavia Prague).

The Gunners have won their last five Champions League games in a row, scoring 20 goals and conceding just three. The last time they had such a long winning streak in this competition was between March and November 2005 under the legendary Arsène Wenger.

Things are going perfectly at the Emirates Stadium too: this season, they have won all four Champions League home games – without conceding a single goal. Should Arsenal also keep a clean sheet against PSV Eindhoven, the Gunners would become the first English team since Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea in 2021/22 to win five consecutive home games in the Champions League without conceding a goal.

Will there be the next historic success for Arsenal?

Arsenal’s greatest dominance in a European knockout tie so far came in the 1993/94 European Cup Winners’ Cup, when Standard Liège were knocked out with an aggregate score of 10-0. That was also the last time an English club progressed with a double-digit aggregate in an international competition.

Ethan Nwaneri could set another highlight. The youngster is already the youngest player to score in two consecutive Champions League games in the history of the competition (17 years, 348 days). No player has ever scored three goals in this competition before their 18th birthday. Should Nwaneri, who is very likely to start, achieve this, he would replace Kylian Mbappé as the youngest player to score in three consecutive Champions League games (18 years, 113 days).

PSV Eindhoven – statistics & current form

PSV Eindhoven are in an almost impossible situation after the clear 1-7 defeat in the first leg. It was the highest defeat the Dutch club has suffered in an international competition, on a par with the 6-0 defeat to AS St.-Étienne in the 1979 UEFA Cup. No team has ever turned around a six-goal deficit in Champions League history.

The faces of Peter Bosz’s team are correspondingly long after they suffered a setback in the Eredivisie championship race with a 3-2 defeat at Go Ahead Eagles, having previously lost out to the same opponents in the KNVB Beker. However, the Boeren recovered from the three painful defeats in a row on Saturday, when they won their Eredivisie home game against Heerenveen 2-1.

Nevertheless, the red and whites are travelling to England with a poor record. In their last 13 visits to England, they have only won once (four draws, eight defeats) – a 1-0 victory against Tottenham Hotspur in the UEFA Cup in 2008. In the last 15 visits to the island, they have never scored more than a goal. Arsenal have also not been beaten by PSV in five home games (three wins, two draws).

Can PSV Eindhoven at least score the consolation goal?

The Dutch team’s defensive problems are glaring in the Champions League. Bosz’s team has not kept a clean sheet in an away game in the Champions League since March 2016. In their last 15 away games in this competition, the team has conceded a total of 33 goals – an average of 2.2 goals per game. It’s no wonder, then, that the odds are so clearly against the Boeren at Arsenal against PSV Eindhoven, with Winamax offering odds of 7.75 for an away win.

If the red and whites fail to win the second leg, as expected, it would also be their seventh consecutive away game in England without a win. In view of the crushing 7-1 home defeat last Tuesday, a positive end to the season in the premier league on the Thames hardly seems possible anyway.

Arsenal – PSV Eindhoven Head to head / H2H record

Head to head: 5 – 4 – 2

A total of eleven competitive matches have taken place between the two teams so far, with Arsenal FC leading the way with five wins. After four away matches without a win at PSV Eindhoven (two draws, two defeats), Arsenal managed a spectacular 7-1 away win at the Philips Stadium last Tuesday. At home, the Londoners have remained completely unbeaten in five games against the Dutch (three wins, two draws).

Arsenal – PSV Eindhoven betting tip

After the clear 7-1 away win in the Netherlands, the betting odds of the top bookmakers are also beating out in the run-up to the second leg between Arsenal and PSV Eindhoven, whose place in the quarter-finals, however, should already be set in stone. With that in mind, a lot of rotation is to be expected, which could be noticeable not only in the automatisms on the field, but also on the scoreboard. It shouldn’t be too high-scoring, although the Boers could be trusted to leave the premier class with their heads held high.

In this context, the prediction that the Dutch team will avoid a heavy defeat at Arsenal against PSV Eindhoven is very consistent. We are setting a handicap of +2 for the Boers, which, in addition to draws and away wins, also covers every defeat by just one goal.