Can the Leones still turn it around?

AS Roma were able to confirm their great form in the Serie A at home in the Eternal City last Thursday, putting themselves in a good position to advance to the quarter-finals of the UEFA Europa League with a 2-1 home win over the Leones. If the tip for the home win of Athletic Bilbao against AS Roma does not pan out, the Giallorossi would advance to the next round. Meanwhile, a defeat by just a single goal would lead to extra time.

The leones still have a chance of turning the game around, though. After all, the Basques have won eight of their last ten international competitive home games against Serie A opponents (one draw, one defeat), while the Giallorossi have lost eight of their last twelve away games in Spain (two wins, two draws). Accordingly, the prediction that Ernesto Valverde’s team can make it exciting again is interesting in the game between Athletic Bilbao and AS Roma.

But in addition to their current form, the direct comparison also favors the Wolves. Not only did AS Roma remain the only club to remain completely unbeaten in the 2025 calendar year in the Serie A (eight wins, two draws), thus extending their unbeaten streak to twelve league games in the top division of Italian football, but they also remained unbeaten in the two previous international competitive games against Athletic Bilbao (one win, one draw).

Nevertheless, we think that the goal-scoring Basques have a certain chance of turning the game around at home. If the leopards take the lead, it could get very hectic very quickly, which is why we recommend betting on over 2.5 goals. The odds for this are 2.05 at Interwetten for Athletic Bilbao against AS Roma.

Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form

Athletic Bilbao have had a very strong season so far. Not only did the Leones (in English: the Lions) make it to the round of 16 in the Europa League, but they are also currently in fourth place in La Liga with only four defeats in 27 league games and would qualify for the league phase of the Champions League next season as things stand.

Internationally, the Basques have an impressive home record against Italian clubs. In European competition, the club has won eight of ten home games against Serie A teams (one draw, one defeat). The only home defeat against an Italian team came in February 2015 against Turin FC in the UEFA Europa League.

Ernesto Valverde’s side have been extremely strong at home at the San Mamés this season too. All four Europa League home games have been won. Athletic Club’s last longer run of home wins on the international stage was between 1985 and 1997, when they won 11 home games in a row. The last time they managed that in a European competition season was in 2011/12 under Marcelo Bielsa, when they also recorded five home wins in the Europa League.

Will Athletic Bilbao remain unstoppable at home in San Mamés?

If they are to stage a comeback, the Basques’ offensive could once again be crucial. Iñaki Williams has already scored five goals in the Europa League, equalling the record for a Ghanaian player. Before him, only Tony Yeboah (1992/93), Michael Essien (2004/05), Patrick Twumasi (2017/18) and Mohammed Kudus (2022/23 and 2023/24) reached this mark in an international season.

Accordingly, betting on the fact that Athletic Club can play to its home strength and push open the door to advancing to the next round after all is an interesting proposition. In any case, the betting providers are giving the Leones a good chance of at least making it to extra time, with odds of 1.95 for Tip 1 on record for Athletic Club against AS Roma. On the other hand, those betting on the Basques eliminating the Giallorossi will find odds in the betting apps of the bookmakers in the range of around 2.40.

AS Rom – Statistics & current form

With the victory in the first leg, the Wolves have put themselves in a good position to advance to the quarter-finals.

The fact that the Giallorossi are now tipped to advance in the second leg against Athletic Bilbao is supported above all by the impressive record when the team from the Eternal City wins the first knockout game. In the last nine cases in which the capital city side won the first leg, they always went on to reach the next round. The last time they were knocked out in such a scenario was in the 2018/19 Champions League last 16 against FC Porto (2-1 first leg, 3-1 second leg).

However, Spain has not been a good place for the Romans in recent years. Since two away wins against La Liga representatives in the 2002/03 Champions League season (at Real Madrid and Valencia), there have only been two wins in total (two draws, eight defeats) in twelve away games on the Iberian Peninsula.

Can AS Roma overcome their away weakness in Spain?

Athletic Bilbao have also been very strong at home in the Europa League, which poses a major challenge for AS Roma. Should the Giallorossi nevertheless manage to achieve success at the San Mamés, it would be a further sign of the team’s stability in international knockout matches.

Another advance to the next round would see the Wolves continue their recent winning streak and keep them in contention for yet another European title, following their overall victory in the Conference League in 2022 and their appearance in the 2023 Europa League final. In any case, the capital city team is not lacking in momentum. On Sunday, the Romans added to Empoli FC (1-0) and celebrated their sixth consecutive victory in a competitive game.

Athletic Bilbao – AS Roma Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 0 – 1 – 1

The two duels in the league phase of the 2024/25 Europa League and the first leg last Thursday were the only two international competitive matches between the two teams so far. Due to the 1:1 in the league phase and the 2:1 victory from the first leg, AS Roma leads the direct comparison.

Athletic Bilbao – AS Roma betting tip

The betting odds of the best bookmakers are clearly in favor of Athletic Bilbao against AS Rome, but the Basques are now facing the team in Serie A with the strongest form. The Giallorossi have not lost in twelve league games (nine wins, three draws) and now have the home field advantage on their side. A draw is enough for the Wolves to advance to the quarterfinals.

Sooner or later, the Leones, who are strong at home, will inevitably have to take a risk. If they even manage to score the first goal, which we think is very likely, it could also be a very goal-rich game. The forecast of over 2.5 goals is therefore also very coherent in the second leg between Athletic Bilbao and AS Roma.

Interwetten is offering odds of 2.05 for at least three goals in regular time, which we cautiously play with three out of ten units.