Is TSG finally bowing out of the relegation battle?

It is not only the race for the international places that is currently creating a lot of excitement in the Bundesliga. The battle for survival is also hotting up. Two of the six teams that will in all likelihood make up the two relegated teams and the relegation place will face each other in a direct duel on Friday evening. The duel between St. Pauli and Hoffenheim and the tip on the outcome of the game will therefore set the tone for the final spurt in Germany’s top division.

The guests from the Kraichgau region are traveling to the Millerntor with more momentum. TSG has scored eight points in the last four match days. In contrast, the Kiezkicker have not won in six matches and are now only two points ahead of VfL Bochum (16th place). In view of the “Boys in Brown’s” poor form and lack of offense, it might make sense to predict the Ilzer team between St. Pauli and Hoffenheim. Especially away from home, things have been going really well for the men from Sinsheim lately.

If you want to bet on an away win for TSG on the three-way market, you can get strong odds of 3.40 at Winamax for the prelude to matchday 26 of the Bundesliga between St. Pauli and Hoffenheim. At the best bookmakers, the 13th-placed team is even being traded as an outsider by the 15th-placed team.

St. Pauli vs. Hoffenheim Forecast AI

Before the encounter between St. Pauli and Hoffenheim, the AI prognosis points in a completely different direction to the betting providers’ guesswork. According to artificial intelligence, the probability of occurrence is estimated at a whopping 37%, which clearly exceeds the bookies’ 29%. According to AI, odds of 2.80 and above are available for the guests’ three points. Winamax even offers 3.40 as the highest odds, so remarkable value can be assumed.

St. Pauli – Statistics & current form

On matchday 12 of the current Bundesliga season, FC St. Pauli were last in one of the bottom three places. The same fate may be looming again just under four months later after the completion of the 26th matchday. If a prediction of a guest three points comes true in the match between St. Pauli and Hoffenheim on Friday evening and VfL Bochum wins against Eintracht Frankfurt on Sunday, the Hecking team would then overtake the Kiezkicker with 23 points.

Is St. Pauli living up to its reputation as the least dangerous offensive team again?

Things were looking up for the team of coach Alexander Blessin in terms of avoiding relegation, but the situation has deteriorated significantly for them in recent weeks. The reason for this is obvious, because the “Boys in Brown” have not been able to score three times in the German top flight for six games now. In fact, they have only managed to pick up two out of a possible 18 points in that period. Last week, they almost managed to get a win under their belt, but a good performance and a 1-0 lead in Wolfsburg were not enough to get all three points out of the Autostadt (1-1).

The lack of firepower in the forward line remains a sore point for the Hamburgers. 19 goals is the lowest tally in the league. Looking back at the past six league games, the promoted side have also only managed to score two measly goals. With a total of five goals, Morgan Guilavogui is currently the top scorer for the Kiezkickers. It’s just a shame that the lightning-fast right winger continues to be sidelined with a hairline fracture in his foot. The Frenchman is not expected to make a comeback until after the international break at the earliest.

There is therefore much to suggest that the home side will once again lack the necessary punch in the opposing third and that, therefore, before the St. Pauli game against Hoffenheim, odds on under-goals can be considered. This could also be combined with the double chance X2, especially since the Blessin team lost the last two Bundesliga home games without scoring, failed to score in a total of nine of twelve home games this season, and is in penultimate place in the home table with nine points.

Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form

TSG Hoffenheim are also not yet safe from relegation. Although the Kraichgauer currently have four more points on the account than the upcoming opponent, however, the Ilzer team would be drawn into the mess again in the event of a defeat. However, if the blue-whites score three points in the north, they would take a huge step towards avoiding relegation. Apart from that, the upward trend of recent weeks could continue seamlessly.

Hoffenheim is currently experiencing the best phase of the season

For the first time this season and consequently also for the first time under Austrian head coach Christian Ilzer, TSG Hoffenheim recently went four consecutive matches without a defeat. Eight out of a possible twelve points were earned. Ten points would have been possible, but in the previous week, the Europa League participant missed a victory in the home game against the direct competitor from Heidenheim (1:1).

The draw against the team from the Ostalb region was, however, in line with the fact that Andrej Kramaric and Co. are currently even stronger away from home than at home. They have won three of their last four Bundesliga away games, one more than in their previous 20 away games in the German top flight. In the second half of the season, only FC Augsburg have scored better away from home than the Kraichgauers, who have also scored at least once in five of their last six away games. One goal on Friday evening should probably be enough to ensure that they don’t leave the pitch as losers.

Alternatively, betting on Gift Orban as a goalscorer is also an option. The winter signing from Lyon has scored in four of his last seven TSG matches and is currently set in the front line. Consequently, the high odds for an Orban goal between St. Pauli and Hoffenheim bring value with them.

St. Pauli – Hoffenheim head-to-head comparison / H2H record

The two second-division duels from the 2007/08 season and the two Bundesliga encounters from the 2010/11 season can be safely ignored in this analysis. Only the first leg in the fall is therefore relevant. St. Pauli won 2-0 in Sinsheim. Afolayan and Albers scored for the Kiezkicker, who had their best player in Jackson Irvine. The Australian prepared both goals and is now the promoted team’s top provider with six assists.

St. Pauli – Hoffenheim betting tip

Matches against promoted teams have been a good place for TSG Hoffenheim to be of late. The Kraichgauer have lost only one of the last ten Bundesliga matches against promoted teams (7-2-1). On the road, they have even had six successes in a row. We also expect the team from Ilzer to have the better chances in Friday’s game. The blue and whites have more individual quality and have recently scored eight points from four games. TSG has won three of its last four Bundesliga games.

The home side, on the other hand, have not won in six games, are among the weakest home teams in the league with only nine points and have only scored in three of twelve games at home. I am therefore leaning towards the double chance X2 between St. Pauli and Hoffenheim, which is quoted at 1.68 at Winamax.