Will the Blancos pass the test on the east coast?

While Villarreal CF, in eighth place in last year’s final table, missed out on qualifying for a European competition, Real Madrid once again defied all the odds. In a penalty shootout, the Blancos eliminated city rivals Atlético Madrid from the Champions League in the middle of the week and once again made it to the quarter-finals of the premier competition. In the La Liga clash between Villarreal and Real Madrid, the tip for an away win by the Merengues is also generally well-received.

After all, the capital city team have won three of their last five competitive games against the Yellow Submarine (one draw, one defeat), although in the case of Villarreal against Real Madrid, the prognosis must also take into account the fact that Ancelotti’s team have recently suffered a number of setbacks in La Liga. The Madrilenians have only won two of their last six league games (two draws, two defeats).

Despite the exhausting 120 minutes plus penalty shoot-out in the Champions League on Wednesday evening, Real Madrid will have to give their all in La Liga on Saturday. At least there is time to recover thanks to the international break directly afterwards. The next scheduled competitive game is not until 14 days later at the Bernabéu against Leganés. Excessive rotation should therefore not be expected, especially in the key positions.

Villarreal – Statistics & current form

Villarreal Club de Fútbol won the UEFA Europa League in the summer of 2021 and were even in the semi-finals of the Champions League just one year later. Not qualifying for Europe at all, finishing eighth in the final table of the 2023/24 season, was quite disappointing for the Yellow Submarine (Spanish: El submarino amarillo). The big goal under coach Marcelino is, of course, to make a return to the international show business this season.

After 26 league games, the team from the east coast of Spain are in fifth place in the table and, with 44 points and a game less than Athletic Bilbao, are only five points behind a Champions League spot. In other words, even a return to the top flight is still within the realm of possibility. All the more sobering was the recent away game at Deportivo Alaves, which was lost 1-0 last Saturday.

Villarreal’s home record is respectable

At least before that, however, there was a strong streak of six La Liga games in a row without defeat (four wins, two draws), which they will now be looking to continue against the Blancos at home. Although the odds against Villarreal at Real Madrid speak against the eastern Spaniards, whose home win is priced at 3.10 on the Bet365 app. However, a glance at their home record shows that the Yellow Submarine is certainly difficult to beat at the Estadio de la Cerámica.

Of the twelve La Liga home matches in the 2024/25 season, only two games were lost (two wins, two draws), with the team performing particularly well offensively on Spain’s east coast. The 28 goals scored at home are only surpassed by Real Madrid and Barcelona (33 each) in the league. This means that Villarreal CF has the third-best home offense in the Spanish top flight.

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

As the defending champions, Real Madrid will of course play the usual supporting role in the Champions again. But after failing to make it into the top eight in the league phase, which was promptly punished to the extreme in the playoffs with hammerless Manchester City, the chances of winning another trophy suddenly seemed to have drastically decreased. The Blancos have now not only knocked out the Sky Blues, but also held their own at the Metropolitano this week, coming through a narrow 2-1 first-leg victory after a 1-0 defeat at Atlético Madrid on penalties. That is where the ticket to the quarter-finals was finally bought.

At the same time, however, all the English weeks took their toll. In La Liga, the Merengues have only won two of their last six league games (two draws, two defeats), which has even caused them to slip to third place in the meantime. Currently, however, the white ballet is once again level on points with league leaders Barcelona, although the Catalans still have an outstanding game in hand.

Real Madrid with an improvable away record

Thus, the tip for an away win by the Royal against Villarreal must come true if the defense of the La Liga title is also to work out this season. Otherwise, Barca could take advantage and pull away from the Blancos. However, the Madrilenians have been vulnerable time and again away from home. With 14 goals conceded, Real have one of the best away defenses in the top flight of Spanish football. Nevertheless, they have only been able to win six of their previous 14 La Liga away games (five draws, three defeats).

Nevertheless, the proud capital city club has the better record, having also won three of their last five competitive games against the Yellow Submarine (one draw, one defeat) and already notched up a 2-0 home win against the eastern Spaniards in the first leg.

Villarreal – Real Madrid Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 6 – 17 – 29

A total of 52 meetings have taken place between the two teams so far and Real Madrid lead the direct comparison with 29 wins. The Blancos already beat Villarreal CF 2-0 in the first leg, but could not get past a turbulent 4-4 draw in the Estadio de la Cerámica in the last away game at the eastern Spaniards. Real have not won in seven away games in Villarreal…

Villarreal – Real Madrid betting tip

Although the betting odds of the top bookmakers are in favor of Real Madrid against Villarreal. However, the Blancos’ away game at the Estadio de la Cerámica, where the yellow submarine has only lost two of its twelve La Liga home games in 2024/25 (five wins, five draws), will not be a sure-fire success. Especially since the Whites have 120 minutes of Champions League football in their legs from Wednesday evening and the somewhat reduced but still considerable injury list offers little scope for excessive rotation. With the international break just around the corner, Carlo Ancelotti is likely to field all his key players on Spain’s east coast in order to stay in the running for the championship title and not lose touch with Barcelona.

Nevertheless, our prediction for Villarreal v Real Madrid tends towards the guests. The tip that the Blancos will win at least one of the two halves against the easterners provides a lot of value.