Nothing to get again for the Irons?

Although Bayern Munich squandered a lead for the first time in the 2024/25 season last weekend when they went from being 2-0 up to losing 3-2 against Bochum while playing with ten men, they still made a brilliant start in the Champions League, beating Bayer Leverkusen 5-0 on aggregate to reach the quarter-finals. Once again, the tip for a commanding victory by the record champions against Union Berlin is under a lucky star. After all, the international break means the Munich team now has a 14-day break, which means that even tough rotation will not be necessary.

In addition, the Köpenickers are not in great shape despite their recent success in Frankfurt (2-1). The Irons have lost three of their last four league games, and have only won once in their last nine Bundesliga home games (three draws, five defeats), which ultimately also clearly influences our prediction for Union Berlin against Bayern. Only Heidenheim have ultimately won fewer home points (only four) than FCU (six) since the last international break in the fall.

Harry Kane, who has not scored in four consecutive appearances (two of which he came on as a substitute) for the first time since moving to the Bundesliga, will also be keen to end his recent scoring drought in the top flight of German football. We expect a goal-hungry Munich team, who already won 5-1 in their last game at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei, when Kane scored the 2-0 with a wonderful direct free-kick.

Union Berlin vs. Bayern prediction AI

In the past, there have been some surprising discrepancies in the question of man vs. machine. Sometimes the human prediction was right, but occasionally the fact-based view of the supercomputer BETSiE was also able to prevail. In this particular case, however, the AI prediction for Union Berlin against Bayern Munich matches our human prediction, with the AI calculating an expected goals value of 2.1 for FCB and 0.79 for the Irons. This difference of -1.31 certainly justifies the handicap we suggested.

But be careful with the simple three-way system: Tip 2 – priced at 1.40 in the Interwetten app – suggests a probability of 71.4 percent for Bayern’s away win. However, the BETSie calculates that Munich has only a 67.6 percent chance of winning, which is why Tip 2, unlike the handicap bet, not only has no value at all, but is also anything but a sensible addition to a betting slip, especially in combination bets.

Union Berlin – Statistics & current form

At 1. FC Union Berlin, a lot is not going according to plan in this Bundesliga season. The Irons have only won one of their last nine Bundesliga home games (three draws, five defeats), beating Mainz 2-1 in mid-January. Since the international break in October, only 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up fewer points at home (four) than the Berliners (six). With only 15 points from twelve home games, FCU is also playing its weakest Bundesliga season at home since being promoted in 2019.

Now, a real bogey team awaits in FC Bayern. The capital city team has never been able to beat the Munich team in the Bundesliga (three draws, eight defeats). No other team in the league’s history has faced a particular opponent so many times without ever celebrating a victory. In the current form, it seems unlikely that of all things, Union Berlin will beat Bayern for the first time.

Will Union Berlin find a way to go on the offensive?

A big problem is and remains the lack of offense. With only 22 goals scored, Union has the second-weakest offense in the Bundesliga. Only St. Pauli scored less often (19). It’s particularly bad when they play out of defense: the Irons have scored just twelve goals with the ball in play – by far the worst record in the league.

One bright spot remains their strength in set-pieces. Together with their upcoming opponents Bayern, the Berliners have only conceded five goals from dead-ball situations. No other team has a better record here. However, coach Steffen Baumgart, who is serving a suspension for yellow cards, will not be able to coach his team from the sidelines. But the experienced coach has a disastrous record against FCB anyway: in eight competitive games against the record champions, there have been seven defeats and just a single point (1-1 with Cologne in January 2023).

Bayern – Statistics & current form

FC Bayern Munich only conceded their second defeat of the Bundesliga season in the surprising 3-2 defeat in Bochum. After previously going 15 league games unbeaten in a row (14 wins, one draw), the record champions have now dropped points in two of their last four Bundesliga games. Munich have only had two consecutive games without a win once this season, against Leverkusen (1-1) and Frankfurt (3-3) in the fall.

Despite the recent defeat, FCB still has the best offense in the league with 74 goals and has scored more than three times as many goals as their next opponent Union (22). With 55 goals, Vincent Kompany’s team is also significantly more dangerous from open play than any other team.

Another Müller moment at the Alte Försterei?

One player who is particularly looking forward to duels with Union Berlin is Thomas Müller. The veteran needs fewer minutes per direct goal involvement with the Köpenickers (64) than with any other current Bundesliga club. In the last away game at the Alte Försterei in April 2024, he scored his last Bundesliga brace to date. His performance in October 2021 was even more spectacular, when he was directly involved in four goals (one goal, three assists) in the 5-2 win. All the more interesting are the odds for a Müller goal at Union Berlin against Bayern, which are priced at 3.10 on the Bet365 app.

Another milestone could be celebrated by Raphael Guerreiro, who is about to play his 200th Bundesliga game. His last goal came in the 3-2 defeat to Bochum, when he scored twice. He has also scored against the Berlin club many times in the past (four goals, three assists).

In terms of personnel, FCB remains well-stocked in almost all positions. The statistics also point to a commanding performance: while the record champions have the highest possession rate in the league at 69.3% and the best pass accuracy (90%), the capital club has only 42.4% possession and a pass accuracy rate of 76% – the second-worst values in the Bundesliga.

Union Berlin – Bayern Head to head / H2H record

Head to head: 0 – 3 – 8

A total of eleven competitive matches have taken place between the two teams so far – all in the Bundesliga. In these, 1. FC Union Berlin have never been able to beat FC Bayern Munich in eleven attempts. The Reds won 3-0 in the first leg at the Isar. In the last home game at the An der Alten Försterei stadium to date, the Irons even had to admit defeat to the German record champions with a score of 1-5.

Union Berlin – Bayern Tip

The betting odds for Union Berlin against Bayern with PayPal are clearly and unequivocally in favor of the German record champions, who have never lost to the Irons in eleven games (eight wins, three draws).

Given that FCU has only won one of its last nine Bundesliga home games (three draws, five defeats), FCB should not have too much trouble. We therefore recommend the prediction that the guests from Munich will win by at least two goals in the capital.