Würzburg is aiming for the next upset against Bayern
Whose euphoria is greater? When the ninth-placed team in the table hosts the league leaders on Saturday evening at 8:00 p.m., the roles initially seem clearly distributed. German betting providers are unanimous: Bayern Munich is the clear favorite to win against Würzburg Baskets. Many a bookmaker does not even think the home side has a 25 percent chance of winning.
Despite their different starting positions, the two teams will probably not lack self-confidence. Even if Würzburg’s recent defeat on the international stage has to be safely ignored, both the Baskets and Munich can look back on unexpected successes.
While Bayern, among other things, celebrated a spectacular upset victory against Barcelona in the EuroLeague, Würzburg toppled Alba Berlin from the throne of favorites in the German Basketball League with a surprise victory.
Even in view of the surprises that Würzburg and Bayern have conjured up recently, the bookies do not expect another spectacle. In line with the often cautious style of play of the two opponents, Betano offers recommendable odds of 1.78 for betting tips on less than 164.5 points in the game.
Würzburg Baskets – Statistics & current form
Analogous to the motivation that Bayern has gained in the EuroLeague, the Würzburg Baskets can also face the favorites in the BBL with broad shoulders. At first glance, Würzburg’s form curve may appear less than optimal with three wins from five matches. However, coach Saša Filipovski’s team recently pulled off a tremendous coup.
Despite home advantage and the clear role of favorites, the Albatrosses from Berlin lost to the visiting Baskets by a final score of 80:84. In particular, Jhivvan Jackson turned in an outstanding performance to impress. The 26-year-old scored a whopping 39 points for Würzburg. The Puerto Rican-born player also recorded five rebounds and three assists and was extremely accurate, making five out of 11 attempts from beyond the arc.
Will Würzburg Baskets be able to confirm the prediction of another away win at home against Bayern Munich? Mentally, it would certainly be wiser for the home side to focus on their recent league success rather than on the fact that they have only won one of their last five home games.
Würzburg needs another offensive performance against Bayern
An interesting dynamic in the upcoming BBL encounter could be created by the Baskets functioning as a kind of counterpart to the defense-minded Munich club when it comes to rebounds. Whereas Bayern boasts a good success rate in defensive rebounds, Würzburg is strong in offensive rebounds. A value of 13.2 places the Baskets in a respectable third place in the league.
Similarly, Würzburg has the third-highest offensive rating in the German Basketball League (115.3), while Bayern has the second-best defensive rating in the league (102.0). Although both teams tend to play at a slow pace, the strengths of the opponents lie elsewhere. Is Würzburg Baskets’ offensive strength enough to refute the betting odds without tax and cause another upset?
Although the statistics imply that it is above all the Bavarian defense that needs to be overcome, Munich’s efficiency is unbeatable. No other team in the German league achieves their difference in offensive and defensive rating of 11.2, which indicates that Bayern scores 11.2 more points than it allows per 100 possessions. Even though Würzburg’s value of 2.9 is also impressive, the Bavarian offense is extremely dangerous – especially considering that Würzburg and Bayern play at a similar pace on average.
Bayern Munich – statistics & current form
It was not that long ago that Bayern Munich only just lost out to a clear underdog. The Bamberg Baskets defied the Bavarian basketball giants to claim a 69-68 triumph by just one point. In the EuroLeague this week, Bayern showed that they are at least as good at this spectacle: Despite being the underdogs, the team of coach Gordon Herbert achieved a narrow but important 101:102 surprise victory against FC Barcelona Basquet.
Malicious gossip claims that this was only due to vehement strategic mistakes by Barcelona, but so be it – together with the recent 89:74 favorite victory against Partizan Belgrade, the success-spoiled Munich team has taken an important step towards the EuroLeague playoffs.
The top team in the BBL can return to the league with a boost. According to the betting odds, Bayern Munich is once again the clear favorite against Würzburg Baskets. Even the most skeptical bookmakers imply a probability of just under 80 percent for a Bavarian away triumph with quotes of 1.26. However, anyone who believes that the guests can win even with a handicap of -8.5 points is in good hands at NEO.bet.
Is Bayern Munich developing an away weakness?
Apart from the blunder against Bamberg, the top team in the Basketball Bundesliga is doing extremely well. It has already been mentioned that Munich is currently doing well in the EuroLeague. However, Herbert’s team have also impressed in the BBL, winning four of their last five matches. Their away record, on the other hand, is less encouraging.
Overall, Bayern are among the best BBL teams away from home. However, the league leaders from the Bavarian capital have suffered three defeats in their last five games on the road. What’s more, Munich was almost as much of a favorite in the run-up to all three defeats as it will be in the game this Saturday. Despite the odds, will Würzburg Baskets join the ranks of those who have recently been able to beat Munich, the team from Bavaria?
Even if Bayern’s last few games have sent out different signals, the league leaders are currently sticking to their unhurried style in the BBL. With a pace of just 71.9, the league leaders play their matches at the second-slowest pace of all teams in the German Basketball League. Their seemingly dominant style of play is complemented by the fact that Munich is also one of the best in defensive rebounds with an average of 26.4. Only Rostock is slightly more robust in this respect, with 26.5. Interestingly, Würzburg, of all teams, plays even slower than Bayern, with a pace of 71.8.
Würzburg Baskets – Bayern Munich Direct comparison / H2H record
Those who consider themselves Würzburg fans should probably skip this part: in 30 encounters, the Baskets have only triumphed over Munich in five cases. The remaining 25 games were decided by the Bavarian capital city. As expected, Bavaria is also ahead in the points ratio of 2430:2166.
Würzburg Baskets – Bayern Munich Tip
Despite strengths in different areas of the game, the clear favorite role of the guests cannot be shaken. Understandably, the bookmakers see clear advantages on the side of Munich, while another surprise victory for Würzburg is considered unlikely. After Jhivvan Jackson’s brilliant performance, will the Baskets succeed in amazing the fans once again?
To bet on value between Würzburg Baskets and Bayern Munich, a handicap is essential. A handicap of -8.5 is a good option for such bets, which Würzburg should not overcome in the normal case, unless the Baskets once again release unexpected forces.
In this situation, however, I think betting tips on the number of points could be even more interesting. Of course, the slow pace of one team is not always a guarantee for fewer points. However, the strategic alignments of the two unequal teams offer a reasonable basis for taking advantage of odds of 1.78 at Betano for bets on under 164.5 points.