Will the world champion secure the World Cup ticket against their arch-rivals?
At the national team level, there are only a few real rivalries in world football. But one of them is undoubtedly the “Battle of the Americas” between the reigning world champions from Argentina and the record world champions from Brazil. The anticipation for the direct duel, which will take place at the Estadio Monumental in Buenos Aires in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday at 1:00 a.m. German time, is all the greater. Because the tip for the gauchos came through in the first leg between Argentina and Brazil, the “Seleção” is naturally insisting on revenge in the upcoming second leg.
In terms of the South American World Cup qualifiers, the encounter is not decisive. The “Albiceleste” are leading the pack by six points and have more or less secured their place at next year’s finals. The footballers from the land of the Sugar Loaf are also in a comfortable position in third place. So, there is no need to look into a crystal ball to predict that the two football superpowers from the CONMEBOL zone will be among the teams competing in the USA, Canada and Mexico in 2026, before the traditionally very explosive clash between Argentina and Brazil.
However, the two superstars Lionel Messi and Neymar will miss the duel due to injuries. In general, there are personnel problems on both sides that make a prediction significantly more difficult. Basically, however, there are good reasons why lower odds are being offered on Argentina beating Brazil at home.
Argentina – Statistics & current form
As the third nation behind Japan and New Zealand – excluding hosts – the Argentine national football team could qualify for the 2026 World Cup on Tuesday night. The prerequisite for this is that they do not lose their home game against their eternal rivals from the Sugar Loaf. In other words, it would be enough if the odds on the double chance 1X paid off between Argentina and Brazil. With four matches remaining, the Gauchos would have at least a 13-point lead over the team in seventh place, which will now play in the intercontinental play-offs due to the increase in the number of teams participating in the World Cup.
Will Martinez keep another clean sheet in the Argentina goal?
Regardless of when the protégés of world champion coach Lionel Scaloni get their ticket for the big event in the summer of 2026, they will once again be among the hottest contenders for the trophy as the defending champions. Interestingly, however, higher betting odds are being offered for a World Cup triumph by Lionel Messi and Co. than for the Brazilians. This is hard to understand given that the Albiceleste are still on a roll after their 2022 final victory against France, won the 2024 Copa America and are also the measure of all things in South American World Cup qualifying.
With nine wins, one draw and three defeats, the Gauchos lead the standings by six points over second-placed Ecuador. The Scaloni team has the best offense in the CONMBEOL zone with 22 goals and, with seven goals conceded, also the second-best defense. Their home form in particular is very good, with five wins from six games and only two goals conceded. The world champions have kept a clean sheet in 11 of their last 12 World Cup qualifiers at home.
It was their solid defense that laid the foundation for three points in the first international match in March. They managed a 1-0 victory against Uruguay, who had not previously been beaten at home, thanks to a goal from Thiago Almada in the 68th minute. The assist was provided by Julian Alvarez, who, in our opinion, is most likely to score in the “Superclásico de las Américas”. The odds for a corresponding bet on an Alvarez goal between Argentina and Brazil are 3.60, which you can find in the Bet365 app with the Bet365 bonus code 2025. Especially in view of the fact that three big names, Lautaro Martinez, Lionel Messi and Paulo Dybala, are missing through injury, the in-form Atletí attacker will play a major offensive role.
Provisional line-up:
Martinez – Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico – De Paul, Mac Allister – Simeone, Fernandez, Almada – Alvarez
Brazil – statistics & current form
At club level, Raphinha of Barcelona and Vinicius Jr. of Real Madrid are rivals, but at international level they are colleagues. Nevertheless, there was a minor altercation between the two offensive stars a few days ago during the home game against Colombia, which ultimately had a positive effect. Raphinha took Vini Jr. to task after the latter had once again gesticulated wildly at the referees. The Barca star finally pulled the Real attacker away from the referee, thus preventing a yellow card that would have meant Vini Jr. missing out against Argentina on Tuesday night…
Brazil’s away record is below average
The importance of the FIFA World Player of the Year 2024 for the “Seleção” was ultimately proven by his goal in the 95th minute (!) to give them a 2-1 home win over the Copa America finalists from Colombia. The team, coached by Dorival Junior, thus avoided a further setback in the World Cup qualifiers, which have been anything but perfect so far. Nevertheless, as they sit in third place in the table, they have an eight-point lead over seventh place, so their place at the World Cup does not seem particularly at risk.
Nevertheless, the record world champions naturally have a completely different aspiration. Just six wins in 13 qualifying matches is a disappointing haul. Especially when you consider that the star ensemble from the Sugar Loaf has already conceded four defeats and only managed to score 19 goals of their own. Away from home, the record is even more disappointing, with two wins, one draw and three defeats. Five goals in six guest appearances in the course of the World Cup qualifiers are not enough to make their next opponent break out in a sweat.
In view of the statistics mentioned and the fact that the Brazilians have not been able to beat the Gauchos four times in a row, I think it is more advisable to play for the betting odds on the home win between Argentina and Brazil. The Interwetten app offers 2.30 for the world champions’ triple. At Betano, meanwhile, you can combine the double chance 1X with the under 2.5 at a maximum rate of 1.95.
Expected line-up:
Bento – Vanderson, Marquinhos, Ortiz, Arana – Joelinton, Andre, Rodrygo, Raphinha, Vinicius Jr. – Pedro
Argentina – Brazil Head-to-head / H2H record
This will be the 111th time that the arch-rivals have faced each other in an official international match. The Gauchos have not only remained unbeaten against the Brazilians for the last four matches in a row, but have also kept a clean sheet. Three of these four matches ended with a 1-0 victory for the Albiceleste, including the first leg in the current World Cup qualifiers. A header from Otamendi in the 63rd minute decided the game back in November 2023. It was one of only two away wins in ten qualifying duels between these teams.
Argentina – Brazil Tip
Five match days are still to be played in the South American World Cup qualifiers. The two World Cup title contenders from Argentina and Brazil are each in a comfortable position to secure their place at next year’s finals. The outlook is even better for the Gauchos, who are leading the table and only need a single point to get their ticket. I am confident that the “Albiceleste” will manage to get this point in Buenos Aires during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday.
This is supported, for example, by the fact that the Scaloni team has kept a clean sheet in 11 of the last 12 home qualifiers and has not lost any of the last four direct duels against the arch-rivals from the Sugar Loaf Mountain. The Argentinians have also always kept a clean sheet in these four encounters. However, because the hosts have to do without many important offensive players and generally few goals have been scored recently in the CONMEBOL zone and between these teams, my Argentina vs. Brazil prediction is for the game to end 0-0 after 45 minutes. Oddset is offering a respectable 2.30 as odds for this, which I am betting on with four units.