Will the Gunners get the win they need to stay in contention?

Although they are now twelve points behind the red shorts, Arsenal FC, second in the table, are still the closest pursuers of Liverpool FC. The Gunners are still in a minor supporting role in the 2025 Premier League champions prediction, although it will be difficult to get back there with only 27 points left to play for. Accordingly, it is imperative for Arsenal to bet on a home win in the London derby against Fulham.

In principle, the prediction for the home side in the Arsenal v Fulham game is also a lucky one, because in 31 Premier League home games against the Cottagers, the Gunners have never lost (24 wins, seven draws). However, the Whites have been selling themselves extremely dearly of late. Not only did they draw with Arsenal FC in the first leg (1-1), but they also remained unbeaten by their city rivals for the third consecutive Premier League game (one win, two draws).

Fulham FC have also been doing remarkably well recently. Although they were knocked out of the FA Cup on Saturday with a 3-0 defeat to Crystal Palace, they have won five of their last eight league games in the Premier League (three defeats). The Cottagers have climbed to eighth place and are only two points behind sixth place. They are also just four points away from fourth place, which would get them into the Champions League. So the visitors should not lack motivation.

Arsenal – Stats & current form

Arsenal may no longer have much of a chance of winning the title, but they are still on course to finish as runners-up and thus qualify for the Champions League again, where they reached the quarter-finals after a convincing performance against PSV Eindhoven. In April, they will face heavyweight Real Madrid in the last eight.

In the Premier League, the Gunners only managed one win in their last four games (two draws, one defeat), but they were almost unstoppable in the London Derbies. Mikel Arteta’s team collected 20 points in city duels – the best in the league. April 1 is also a traditional day for the north Londoners to celebrate: they have won all seven Premier League games played on this date – with a goal difference of 25:3.

Arsenal is both compact and efficient

Even now, the tip for Arsenal against Fulham is a home win for Arteta’s team under very good omens. Once again, defense could be the key to success. In 11 league games this season, Arsenal have allowed fewer than 0.50 expected goals against – more than three times more than any other team. The Cottagers also only managed 0.16 xG in the first leg – the lowest figure of their season so far. The fact that Arsenal’s opponents only manage an average of 9.7 shots on target per game further underlines their defensive stability.

Another factor in their recent success is Mikel Merino: five of his six Premier League goals have given his team the lead, while his strike in the fourth game was the winning goal. The Gunners have finally developed into a mature top team under Arteta and now want to bring their home strength to the pitch once again. In 31 Premier League home games against city rivals Fulham, there has not yet been a single defeat (24 wins, seven draws).

Fulham – Statistics & current form

Fulham are traveling to North London with plenty of confidence. The Cottagers have won five of their last eight Premier League games (three defeats) and have also celebrated some notable successes away from home recently: three of their last four away games have been won – as many victories as in their previous ten away games combined. The Whites have also impressed in the derby context: they have already won four London derbies this Premier League season – more than in the three previous seasons in the club’s history.

Fulham have also not lost to Arsenal in their last three league games (one win, two draws). The only longer unbeaten run against Arsenal came between 2011 and 2012 (four games). Nevertheless, the odds against Fulham speak clearly against the visitors, for whose away win in the convenient Betano app, odds of 8.25 are enticing.

Fulham has bench pressers with effect

It is striking that Marco Silva not only has quality across the board, but is also able to showcase it, because his substitutes regularly make headlines. As many as 13 goals have been scored by substitutes. Only four teams in Premier League history have been more successful from the bench in a single season. This depth is a particularly valuable element in close games.

Another key player is Antonee Robinson. No player in the Premier League has made more interceptions than the left-back (50, like Gravenberch). He also leads the league with 344 runs into the final third – a clear indication of his work rate and offensive presence. Fulham needs his moments in particular to end Arsenal’s impressive home run and stay on course for a European spot.

Arsenal – Fulham Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 42 – 13 – 9

There have been 64 London derbies between Arsenal and Fulham, with the Gunners winning two-thirds of the time (42-13). They have not lost to the Whites in 31 Premier League home games (24 wins, seven draws). Recently, however, the Cottagers have had a good run against Arsenal. Fulham have not lost to the Gunners in three Premier League games (one win, two draws).

Arsenal – Fulham Tip

After the Cottagers have remained unbeaten by Arsenal three times in a row (one win, two draws), we assume that the visitors will be due again this time. Our Arsenal vs. Fulham prediction is for the Gunners to win at home with a maximum of four goals. After all, no team understands how to keep the opposition away from their own goal as well as Mikel Arteta’s team. In 11 of their 29 Premier League games, the Gunners have allowed an expected goals against value of 0.50 or less against them. No other team has more than three league games in which their opponents had an xG of less than 0.50.

Because there shouldn’t be a goal festival at the Emirates Stadium, it makes a lot of sense to combine the tip on the Gunners’ home win with a bet on under 4.5 goals. For this, Arsenal against Fulham betting odds of 1.74 are available, which we at Merkur Bets with six out of ten possible units.