Will Paris gamble away their comfortable lead?

It’s been just two and a half months since Paris St. Germain had to worry about a place in the top 24 of the Champions League before the final matchday of the league phase. It was only a 4-1 away win in Stuttgart that earned the French league leaders a place in the playoffs. In mid-April, the men from the City of Love now even have a good chance of making it to the semi-finals of the Champions League. After the 3-1 win in the first leg, hardly anyone doubts that the betting tip to advance against Paris Saint-Germain will pay off in the second leg against Aston Villa.

In Birmingham, on the other hand, there is still faith in a surprise coup. No wonder, because Emery’s team is in excellent form and has already beaten Bayern Munich, Bologna and Club Brugge at home in the current CL season. However, it is also clear that the English will have to risk more relatively early on, and that this will repeatedly create spaces for the high-speed French offense. This assessment, in turn, is an indication to consider an over/under goals prediction ahead of the Aston Villa vs PSG game.

Meanwhile, those looking to place a bet on the three-way market will find lower odds on the away win in the run-up to the highly anticipated quarter-final second leg between Aston Villa and PSG. The German bookmakers are therefore again expecting coach Luis Enrique’s in-form team to bring their qualitative advantages onto the pitch and also to win the second 90 minutes.

Aston Villa vs. PSG prediction AI

With calculated xG values of 1.04 to 1.44, the AI prediction between Aston Villa and PSG even aims for under 2.5 goals. Because the xG value of 2.69 was also significantly exceeded in the first leg and the starting position actually also increases the probability of an over-match, from a subjective point of view, it is undoubtedly a daring AI tip for the Champions League!

Aston Villa – Statistics & current form

Aston Villa Football Club is currently one of the form-strongest teams in the Premier League. Twelve points were won by the team of coach Unai Emery in the last five match days. Four times in a row, the Lions, who are only three points behind third place in seventh place, have even had the upper hand in the English top flight, conceding only a single goal. With Nottingham Forest or Brighton, direct competitors were also put in their place.

The dress rehearsal at the weekend also went according to plan with a commanding 3-0 win at Southampton. Including the Champions League and the FA Cup, where the AVFC can still dream of silverware as a semi-finalist, they have nine wins from their last ten competitive games. However, their only setback in this period came in the Champions League first leg in Paris last week. Despite a 1-0 lead, “The Claret and Blue Army” were deservedly defeated 3-1 in the French capital. The last goal, scored in injury time, was particularly annoying and significantly worsened the prospects of reaching the semi-finals of the Champions League.

Aston Villa is counting on its own top form and home advantage

To make the almost impossible possible and catch up the two-goal deficit, it will be of immense importance from the perspective of the hosts to score the first goal of the game. Should the guest from the Seine take a 1-0 lead, the Villans would need at least three own goals to even force extra time.

The only problem is that “Les Parisiens” have never conceded more than two goals in a competition game so far. Consequently, almost double-digit odds are being offered on the English side progressing ahead of the second leg between Aston Villa and PSG.

To give the AVFC fans a little hope, it should be noted that the Birmingham-based team has an impressive home record in European competition since the start of the 2022/23 season. They have won 11 of their 13 home games (one draw, one loss). In the current CL season, there have been four wins, one draw and four (!) clean sheets in five matches. But while Emery’s team have mostly been able to play out of a controlled defense, Tuesday evening will undoubtedly require more courage and a certain amount of experimentation, in other words, a different approach that Tielemans, Konsa, McGinn, Rashford and Co. are not nearly as familiar with as with the fast vertical play into the final third.

PSG – Statistics & current form

If you want to make a prediction before the kick-off of the quarter-final second leg between Aston Villa and PSG that the French team will be able to raise the trophy on May 31 in Munich’s Allianz Arena, you can currently find betting odds of 3.35 at NEO.bet.

Formstark, formstärker – Paris St. Germain!

That the team of the successful Spanish coach Luis Enrique would play such a dominant role in the race for the most coveted club trophy in the world would hardly have been thought possible by anyone after the rather disappointing league phase with only four wins, one draw and three defeats. However, “Les Rouge-et-Bleu” improved significantly with the start of the knockout phase, first bringing Stade Brest back down to earth with a 10-0 aggregate score after two legs, and then completely dominating the Premier League leaders from Liverpool in 180 minutes.

The first leg also showed that, firstly, attacking in Europe is currently a top-three format and, secondly, the load is shared between several players. It is interesting to note that seven different players have already scored four or more goals in the current season in the premier league. The internal scoring list is led by Ousmane Dembele, who is probably going through the best phase of his career at the moment. Together with Kvaratskhelia, Doue or Barcola, the PSG attack is always capable of scoring against any opponent.

Furthermore, it should be noted that the French champions, who did not play at the weekend, were able to conserve their strength and, with 17 (!) wins from their last 18 competitive games, are in no way inferior to the home side in terms of form. In my opinion, there are many attractive odds to be recommended between Aston Villa and PSG. Starting with Over 2.5, which would have gone through in ten of the last twelve matches across all competitions, to a possible goal from Kvaratskhelia, who already scored in the first leg and whose goal threat could have been the last transfer puzzle piece needed to finally make the sheikhs happy with a CL triumph. If Kvaratskhelia scores on Tuesday evening, 3.00 is the top odds on the Bet365 app.

Aston Villa – PSG direct comparison / H2H record

The head-to-head between these clubs is over relatively quickly, because the first leg at the Parc des Princes a week ago was actually the only meeting so far. Rogers (35th) equalized Doué’s (39th) opening goal just four minutes later. In the second half, the French team literally crushed the Lions and scored two more goals through Kvaratskhelia (49th) and Mendes (90th + 2) to make the final score 3:1. For the AVFC, it was already the third consecutive match lost against a French representative under Emery. Will this negative streak continue in the second leg at Villa Park?

Aston Villa – PSG Tip

The newly crowned French champions have so far won seven first legs in the Champions League knockout phase by two or more goals. Nevertheless, the red-and-blue have already been knocked out in three cases. On Tuesday evening, “Les Parisiens” could thus set a sad negative record, because there has never been a club in the Champions League that has been knocked out four times after taking a two-goal lead.

In my opinion, however, coach Luis Enrique’s charges are even favorites going into the away game at Villa Park. On the one hand, because the starting position for the hosts from the island naturally involves a lot of risks. On the other hand, there is almost no team on the continent at the moment that is winning as many games as confidently and easily as Paris St. Germain.

Nevertheless, it must be noted that the Lions have won 11 of their last 13 European home games and have also put in strong performances in front of their home fans in the current CL year. Apart from that, Emery’s team also has nine wins from the last ten competitive games. In the clash between two confident teams, my Aston Villa vs. PSG tip is therefore Over 2.5 goals.