How exciting can the Colchoneros make it?

While in some duels in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League, the first leg has already decided the outcome, the Madrid derby is still completely open. After Atletico Madrid’s 2-1 home win over Real Madrid, the tip that the Whites will progress is certainly among the more favorable signs. However, the home-strong Colchoneros have already made it through to the next round three times in six cases despite losing the first leg.

Admittedly, when Atletico Madrid face Real Madrid, the fact that the Blancos have not been beaten in ten knockout games in the Champions League must also be taken into account in the prediction. However, the home strength of the Colchoneros could also be a factor. The Rojiblancos have not lost any of their last 18 consecutive home games in the knockout phase of the Champions League (eleven wins, seven draws) since a 3-2 defeat to Ajax Amsterdam in March 1997.
The home record in the Derbi Madrileño is also impressive. Atletico Madrid have only lost one of their last seven home games against city rivals Real Madrid in all competitions (three wins, three draws). This makes betting on the Rojiblancos being able to make it exciting again an interesting prospect, although Real Madrid have always reached the next round of the Champions League when they have won the first leg in 21 of 22 cases.

Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid prediction AI

While we assume that Atletico Madrid will not lose this home game, supercomputer BETSiE is of a completely different opinion. In the Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid game, the AI prediction is very clearly for an away win for the Blancos. The odds of 2.70 that Interwetten offers for Tip 2 suggest a probability of 37 percent. However, the BETSiE calculates that Real Madrid has a 46.7 percent chance of winning, which is almost ten percent higher than the bookmakers’ assessment. This is one of the most positive expected values that the AI finds in all eight round of 16 second legs in the three-way system.

Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form

Atlético de Madrid face a difficult, but not impossible, task. After losing 2-1 in the first leg at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Diego Simeone’s team need to pull off another comeback in the Champions League knockout phase. In the past, they have managed the comeback three times. Remarkably, this has always happened when the first game was lost away from home. Most recently, the Rojiblancos came from behind to beat Inter Milan 1-0 in the round of 16 in 2023/24 after losing 1-0 in the first leg and ultimately winning on penalties.

Their record against Real Madrid at home is promising. The Colchoneros have only lost one of the last seven home games against their city rivals (three wins, three draws). In cup competitions, Atleti have not even been beaten in their last five home games against Real, winning four of them. What’s more, Simeone’s side are unbeaten in their own stadium in 18 Champions League knockout games (11 wins, seven draws). Their last home defeat in a Champions League knockout tie was almost 30 years ago (2-3 to Ajax in March 1997).

Will Julián Álvarez take Atletico to the quarter-finals?

Against this background, it is not surprising that the odds for a home win for the Rojiblancos are in favor of Atletico Madrid against Real Madrid. At Betano, where new customers can get a 100% bonus up to €80 as well as a €20 free bet with the Betano Bonus, quotes of 2.57 are being offered for Tip 1. Julián Álvarez could play a key role here.

The Argentine is in scintillating form and has been involved in at least one goal in each of his last five Champions League appearances (six goals, one assist). Should he score or provide an assist against Real Madrid, he would join an exclusive list of Argentinian players. So far, only Claudio López (for Valencia in 1999) and Lionel Messi (for Barcelona in 2011/12 and 2014) have managed to score in six consecutive Champions League games.

The Colchoneros could also reach the quarter-finals twice in a row for the first time since 2016/17. Their home record in the knockout phase suggests they will: they have only lost two of their last 20 Champions League knockout matches at home (eleven wins, seven draws)…

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

Real Madrid are on course to reach the Champions League quarter-finals for a fifth consecutive season. In their long European history, the Whites have won 21 of their last 22 knockout ties when they have taken the first-leg lead. The only time they have lost out was in 2018/19 when they won 2-1 away to Ajax only to be surprisingly beaten 4-1 in the return. Under coach Carlo Ancelotti, the Blancos have a perfect record in this respect: nine times, one of his teams won the first leg – nine times they advanced to the next round.

However, the white ballet has not been particularly successful against Spanish opponents in the European Cup recently. The last three Champions League away games against La Liga teams were not won (two draws, one defeat). The last win dates back to the 2001/02 semi-final first leg, when there was a 2-0 win at FC Barcelona. An outright sure-fire result is therefore not the tip for the away game of the Merengues against Atletico Madrid against Real Madrid.

Can Rodrygo become a factor again?

Rodrygo scored his 25th Champions League goal for Real Madrid against Atlético in the first leg. At 24 years and 54 days, the Brazilian is the fourth youngest player to reach this milestone for a club in the premier class. Only Lionel Messi (22 years, 286 days), Kylian Mbappé (22 years, 352 days) and Raul (23 years, 252 days) were younger when they scored their 25th.

But even the experienced Luka Modrić could play a decisive role in the midfield again. The Croatian averages 17.7 progressive passes per 90 minutes in this Champions League season – more than any other player with at least 300 minutes of action. Despite only coming on as a substitute in the 62nd minute of the first leg, he played more than almost any other Real Madrid player, with eight passes through the opposing lines.

The offensive strength of the Whites also suggests a successful evening. With 28 goals in 11 Champions League games, the Galacticos are averaging 2.55 goals per game – the best since the 2016/17 season when they won the title. If the Merengues can confirm this average, nothing should stand in the way of them reaching the quarter-finals again.

Atletico Madrid – Real Madrid head to head / H2H record

Head to head: 59 – 63 – 117

A total of 239 meetings have taken place between the two teams in all competitions so far, and Real Madrid lead the way convincingly with 117 wins. However, of the last seven visits to Atletico Madrid, the Whites have only won a single game (three draws, three defeats).

Atletico Madrid – Real Madrid Tip

After the narrow 2-1 home win in the first leg, the Whites still have a tricky task ahead of them in the Cívitas Metropolitano. The Blancos have won only one of their last seven visits to the Colchoneros in all competitions (three draws, three defeats). Although the prediction for Real Madrid’s quarter-final appearance at Atletico Madrid tends towards the Champions League record winner, it could be a close game.

A possible extra time is also absolutely within the realm of possibility. After all, the Rojiblancos have not lost any of their last 18 home games in the knockout rounds of the Champions League (eleven wins, seven draws). Regardless of the question of who will advance, the double chance 1X tip is therefore very coherent.

Atletico Madrid against Real Madrid betting odds of 1.50 are on record for the fact that the Colchoneros will not lose this home game, which we are playing with six units at Betano.