Bayern’s fine line: Inter on their minds, Europe’s best defense ahead of them
A glance at the form and second-half table reveals that the 28th matchday in the Bundesliga will kick off with an absolute top game. With the FCA, the third-best team in the second half of the season will face the Munich team, who not only lead the overall standings, but also the table from matchday 18. The Leverkusen fans in particular will be looking eagerly towards the WWK Arena on Friday evening, especially as the personnel situation at the visitors is extremely tense and thus there is the potential for an upset in the Augsburg vs.
The fact is that for many weeks now, all opponents have been struggling against the outstanding FCA defense around keeper Finn Dahmen. Last weekend, it even took a scandalous penalty for TSG Hoffenheim to end the impressive run of clean sheets.
Nevertheless, Thorup’s team is brimming with self-confidence and is determined to trip up the league leaders. However, the sports betting providers with Apple Pay deposits are not forecasting a win for the eighth-placed team ahead of the Augsburg v Bayern clash, which, incidentally, has lost nine of the last 13 Bundesliga home games against FCB.
If you think the home team, which continues to march undefeated through the German top flight in the second half of the season, can even pull off the big coup in front of their own fans on Friday evening, Winamax offers attractive odds of 7.25 at the top for Augsburg beating Bayern by three goals.
Augsburg vs. Bayern prediction AI
The artificial intelligence sees the team of coach Vincent Kompany as the clear favorite at the weekend. However, the approximately 61% probability of victory calculated by the “BETSiE” is significantly lower than the 67% estimated by the bookmakers. There are also deviations in the expected number of goals. In view of xG values of 0.63 vs. 1.55, the AI believes in a maximum of two goals in the game, while the betting providers quote higher odds for Over 2.5. With an xG total of 2.18, the Bayern vs. Augsburg AI prediction is therefore for a low-scoring game.
Augsburg – Statistics & current form
FC Augsburg is the measure of all things in the calendar year 2025 when it comes to defending their own goal. In fact, in Europe’s top five leagues, no other club has conceded as few goals as the red-and-green-whites since the start of the year, with just four goals conceded in twelve matches in Germany’s top division. After six clean sheets in a row, however, goalkeeper Finn Dahmen was beaten again last week. A ridiculous penalty put an end to the talented shot-stopper’s outstanding run, during which he had not had to fish the ball out of the net in the Bundesliga since February 1.
FC Augsburg: With the concrete defense to the surprise coup
The remarkable defensive stability is also accompanied by an unbeaten streak that has now lasted for eleven matches. Since the winter break, the Fuggerstadt team has celebrated six victories and drawn five times. The only defeat since the restart came on January 12, when they lost 1-0 at home to VfB Stuttgart.
In their last four home games, they have picked up eight points out of a possible twelve, so it will certainly take a certain amount of effort to predict a guest goal between Augsburg and Bayern.
Despite all the justified praise for the great defensive performances of the Thorup team, it must be stated that the offense is not tearing down any trees. It is no coincidence that no other Bundesliga team has created fewer big chances than the FCA. The seasonal xG value is also not beaten by any other opponent in the top flight. It is therefore not surprising that a bet on Under 3.5 would have passed in all twelve Bundesliga games in 2025, and in most cases even Under 2.5. If the team in eighth place, who can still dream of Europe, wants to have a chance on Friday evening, they will need another defensive masterstroke, so that generally between Augsburg and Bayern, the odds on a low-scoring game provide a good foundation for match combos.
Bayern – Statistics & current form
The hot end of the season begins for FC Bayern with the away game in southern Swabia. The record champions still have seven Bundesliga matches to play, and next week they will face Inter Milan for a place in the Champions League semi-finals. At the national level, Munich is currently still six points ahead of title-holders Bayer 04 Leverkusen. However, the last few performances, combined with the tense personnel situation, have led to Vincent Kompany currently trying to sharpen the senses again and raise a warning finger.
FCB in the hot phase of the season – but with Sané, please
In particular, FCB has to do without important players in defense. Upamecano, Davies and Ito are currently unavailable, as is first-choice keeper Manuel Neuer. Instead, young Jonas Urbig is between the posts, who has not always looked completely comfortable recently. The former Cologne player has already conceded six goals in his first three Bundesliga appearances, more than any Bayern goalkeeper has conceded in their first three Bundesliga appearances. In general, the men from Säbener Straße have already conceded as many goals after ten matchdays as they did in the entire first half of the season.
With the Champions League quarter-final first leg against Inter Milan in mind, the league leaders will now nevertheless be focusing on defending in the WWK Arena. In any case, they have been doing better away from home than at home in the Bundesliga recently. Since the restart after the winter break, Munich have never conceded more than one goal in the Bundesliga away from home. In seven of the last eight FCB away games in the top flight, a maximum of three goals have been scored, which further supports my approach of linking the double chance X2 with under-hitting.
Meanwhile, tipsters who are willing to take risks can bet on Leroy Sané’s next goal. The national player scored twice in the 3-2 win against St. Pauli last week and now has nine goals this season. He has never scored more in his Bundesliga career. If Sané scores again on Friday evening, you can get odds of 3.40 for it before the Augsburg vs. Bayern match on the Interwetten app.
Augsburg – Bayern Head to head comparison / H2H record
Augsburg have not had much to offer against FC Bayern in recent years. Including the DFB Cup, Munich have won the last five direct duels against FCA in all. Five times in a row, the record champions also scored at least three goals themselves. The last Augsburg home win against Bayern dates back to the 2022/23 season. It was one of only three home wins in 13 Bundesliga home games. In nine cases, the industry leader kept the upper hand. Nevertheless, the upcoming clash holds plenty of excitement given the positive form curves.
Augsburg vs Bayern tip
FC Augsburg have played 20 Bundesliga games against a team at the top of the table and lost 17 of them. However, their only two successes have come on Friday evenings… Superstitious sports bettors will have read this statistic carefully, because the second leg of the return leg of the Bundesliga season between FCA and FCB will also take place on Friday evening in the WWK Arena. For Munich, it is the dress rehearsal for next week’s CL match against Inter Milan and the BL classic against Borussia Dortmund next Saturday. By the way, at Bwin you can win 2×2 tickets for the BVB vs. FCB watch party at “Bistro09”.
But first, the focus is on the complicated away game in the Fuggerstadt. Augsburg has only conceded four goals in twelve Bundesliga games in 2025 and has been regularly nailing its own goal in recent times. FCB tends to be pragmatic away from home anyway, so we probably won’t see a particularly high-scoring match. My tip for the match is therefore Augsburg to score the first goal and Under 3.5 goals, offered at 1.70 at Winamax.