Is there the next setback for Tottenham?
On Thursday, 06.03.2025, the last sixteen matches of the Europa League will begin. Among the 16 remaining teams are AZ Alkmaar and Tottenham Hotspurs, who will face each other at 6:45 p.m. in the AFAS Stadium (19,500 seats). In our Alkmaar v Tottenham prediction, we now want to find out which of the two teams has the better chance of winning. According to the odds distributed by German betting providers, the away team seems to be favored, because we only get a maximum odds of 2.10 for an away win.
However, we believe that the Alkmaar v Tottenham odds are somewhat deceptive. The home side have picked up 44 points (Ø 2.20) in 20 home games across all competitions and are therefore very strong at home. In addition, Maarten Martens’ team have already scored 43 goals in their own stadium and conceded only 19. On the other hand, Spurs have only managed to get 27 points (Ø 1.29) from 21 away games and are therefore significantly weaker away from home than at home. We therefore think the Dutch team will do well in the first leg.
This assumption is also confirmed by a comparison of form, because while the hosts have only lost one of their last eight competitive games, the guests have lost four times. Furthermore, AZ also impressed in the knockout round against Galatasaray Istanbul, sweeping the Turkish club out of the competition with a total of 6:3. For this reason, we consider the Alkmaar vs. Tottenham tip to be a fairly risky bet on the away team to win. The maximum odds of 2.10 are therefore not attractive. We recommend betting on a home win, for example in combination with a freebet at Merkur Bets.
AZ Alkmaar – statistics & current form
Alkmaar can be absolutely satisfied with the season so far and could still achieve a lot this season. Apart from reaching the round of 16 in the UEFA Europa League, AZ are also in the final of the KNVB Beker. In addition, Maarten Martens’ team still has a good chance of qualifying for the Champions League, as they are currently only three points behind third place. Nevertheless, the hosts still have nothing in their hands and could, in the worst case, come away completely empty-handed. The home game against Tottenham Hotspur is therefore extremely important and should not be lost.
Alkmaar unstoppable at the AFAS Stadium
With 69 goals in 38 competitive games (Ø 1.82), the home side’s offense is doing an excellent job. In addition, Maarten Martens’ team has only been without a goal of their own five times, thus finding the way into the opposing side’s goal in 87% of the games. But it gets even better, because in their own stadium, the rate is even 100%. One player in the home team’s attack deserves special mention: Troy Parrott. The Irishman will be particularly motivated before the clash with his former club and has already demonstrated his goal-scoring ability on several occasions (17 goals in 38 games). Will football write another curious story?
Alkmaar also brings defensive qualities
Defensively, however, it is going just as well as in offense, because with only 44 goals conceded in 38 games (Ø 1.16), AZ’s back row is anything but easy to beat. For this reason, Maarten Martens’ team has kept a clean sheet twelve times and thus conceded a goal in “only” 68% of competitive games. At home, the rate is even slightly better at just 65%. Of course, Tottenham is in a different league to most of the Eredivisje, KNVB Beker and Europa League opponents. We wouldn’t bet on a clean sheet.
Tottenham – Statistics & current form
Tottenham is having a shockingly weak season and has only one chance left to save it. However, that won’t be easy, because with teams like Ajax Amsterdam, Eintracht Frankfurt, Lazio Roma, AS Roma, Athletic Bilbao, Olympique Lyon, Real Sociedad, AZ Alkmaar and Manchester United still in the competition, there are still a few obstacles to overcome. However, after being knocked out of the FA Cup and EFL Cup and finishing 13th in the Premier League, Ange Postecoglou’s team only have this opportunity to play internationally in the upcoming season. Therefore, getting past Alkmaar would be incredibly important, if not essential.
Tottenham have plenty of offensive power
With 80 goals in 42 games (Ø 1.91), the guests rarely go without scoring themselves. In fact, that has only happened six times this season. This means that in 86% of competitive matches, Ange Postecoglou’s team have scored at least one goal. However, the rate is slightly worse away from home, at “only” 81%. But that doesn’t change the fact that Spurs have five players in their squad, Johnson, Solanke, Kulusevski, Son and Maddison, who have already scored over 15 points. That is, of course, a huge number and makes Tottenham almost unpredictable.
Tottenham with problems in defense
Offensively, there is hardly anything to criticize about Ange Postecoglou’s team. Defensively, however, the situation is different, because with 59 goals conceded in 42 competitive games (Ø 1.41), the away team simply allows far too many goals. For this reason, the Spurs conceded at least one goal in 74% of their games and thus kept a clean sheet in only 26% of the games. With the ambitions and goals of Tottenham, this is of course far too little. We therefore do not expect a “clean sheet” against AZ Alkmaar either and even consider conceding a goal to be inevitable.
AZ Alkmaar – Tottenham Head to Head
In our analysis so far, we have not been able to identify a favorite; will the direct comparison change that? Not really, because the two teams have only met once before, and that was in the league system of the current Europa League season. Although Spurs won the game 1-0, they also benefited from home advantage, a penalty and a sending off. So that can’t really be the reason why the Alkmaar v Tottenham betting odds favor the away team to win.
AZ Alkmaar v Tottenham betting tip
We recommend you bet on “both teams to score – yes” for the Alkmaar v Tottenham match. This is primarily because we have much more faith in the home side than the bookmakers do. Especially in their own stadium, AZ should be able to annoy the ailing Spurs. Moreover, the hosts have scored at least one goal in all 20 home games this season, thus demonstrating their offensive qualities often enough. On the other hand, the away team naturally has more individual quality, so we expect a very even game with chances on both sides of the field.