Will Flick accept dropping points?
It’s been a busy few weeks for FC Barcelona. Since the international break in March, the Catalans have been in non-stop action and have had virtually no opportunity to rest and recover. On Tuesday evening, Hansi Flick’s team will play their seventh (!) competitive game in April. Although from a purely sporting point of view, everything points to a win for the La Liga leaders against Mallorca, it must be said that the circumstances surrounding the fixture definitely leave room for surprises.
On the one hand, it is the fifth consecutive week with three games for the Blaugrana. On the other hand, the first big chance to win a title this season awaits at the weekend with the Copa del Rey final against Real Madrid. It is therefore anything but unlikely that Flick will rotate heavily and field a completely different starting eleven compared to the weekend, when FCB only narrowly prevailed 4-3 at home against Celta Vigo. A Barcelona vs. Mallorca prediction of a point for the visitors therefore seems by no means out of the question.
All betting providers that offer sports betting with PayPal still have the home side as clear favorites. At the top, only 1.25 is offered for a home win, which translates into an 81% probability. Even without in-depth analysis, value can therefore be found in the Barcelona vs. Mallorca odds on the double chance X2. This is especially true given that Mallorca are having a strong season and have rarely lost in the Spanish top flight recently.
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
To date, FC Barcelona has already played 26 competitive matches in the 2025 calendar year. The record is very impressive, with 21 wins, four draws and only one defeat – a 1-3 loss in Dortmund. However, when you consider that the 2025 soccer year is not even 115 days old and has even been interrupted by a ten-day international break, it becomes clear that the Catalans are expected to perform at their best every four days on average. One English week follows another, making the end of the season a real odyssey.
FC Barcelona is finally reaching the end of its tether
Just a few days ago, coach Hansi Flick expressed his displeasure with the fixture schedule. The former Bayern coach was particularly angry about the early kick-off time for Saturday’s match at 4:15 p.m. The concerns expressed about the almost unacceptable strain on the players were confirmed in two ways.
First, the Blaugrana struggled at home against Celta Vigo, falling behind at one point and needing a last-minute goal from Raphinha to win 4-3. Secondly, Robert Lewandowski injured his thigh in the closing stages and had to be substituted. As things stand, the Pole will miss the cup final at the weekend and the first leg of the Champions League semi-final against Inter Milan. In light of this, I don’t think it’s an option to predict a comfortable home win for Barcelona against Mallorca on Tuesday evening.
Flick’s team, which is still in contention on all three fronts and has remarkable prospects of even winning the treble, is running on empty and sometimes looks battered. Six goals conceded in the last two competitive games and a narrow win against Leganés before that underline that Yamal and Co. are currently a long way from their best form. In addition, Flick is very likely to rotate his squad ahead of Saturday’s cup final and given that the lead in La Liga remains four points ahead of Real Madrid.
Mallorca – Statistics & current form
After Reial Club Deportiu Mallorca narrowly avoided relegation last season, finishing 15th in Spain’s top soccer league after 38 games, this season’s performance can be considered a huge success. At the moment, the islanders are sitting in seventh place in the table and, depending on how the Spanish clubs fare in the European Cup, they can even dream of qualifying for international competition in the 2025/26 season.
Mallorca is a tough opponent – especially away from home!
The defensive line is undoubtedly the pride and joy of coach Jagoba Arrasate’s team. The Mallorcans have conceded only 37 goals so far. By comparison, only the top four teams in the table and Getafe have conceded fewer goals than RCD this season. On the flip side, though, they’ve only scored 31 goals, which is one of the worst records in the Spanish top flight.
In no fewer than 14 of the last 16 league games involving the men from Palma, a bet on under 3.5 would have been successful. The betting odds for under goals are also of interest for the upcoming match between Barcelona and Mallorca. At NEO.bet, for example, you can find odds of 1.66 for a maximum of three goals in the game.
The underdog is certainly in good form. Only two of their last ten La Liga matches have been lost. Their six away wins this season are also impressive. Nevertheless, this is a bonus game for Arrasate’s team at the 1992 Olympic Stadium. The pressure is on the hosts, who may already have their minds on the cup final. Rarely have the Mallorcans had such a good chance to take something away from the Spanish league leaders.
Barcelona – Mallorca Head-to-head record / H2H record
65 matches have been played between FC Barcelona and RCD Mallorca. The favorites from Catalonia have come out on top 41 times. Eleven draws and 13 wins for Mallorca round off the head-to-head record. In recent years, too, the pendulum has mostly swung in favor of the Blaugrana. Barca won the last six La Liga home games as well as the first leg of the current season. In Palma, Flick’s team even won 5-1. The return leg on Tuesday evening is likely to be much more exciting and closer. In my opinion, even a surprise coup is possible.
Barcelona – Mallorca Tip
Under normal circumstances, FC Barcelona’s home game against RCD Mallorca would probably be a mere formality. However, because the Catalans have only played midweek games since the international break and are physically exhausted, their performances have declined noticeably recently. They have conceded more goals again. With the important cup final against arch-rivals Real Madrid coming up on Saturday, it is safe to assume that this league match is much lower down on the list of priorities. Flick will therefore rotate his squad heavily and accept the potential loss of points.
However, as the bookmakers still believe in a comfortable home win, the value is logically to be found in the odds on the visitors. For example, a draw after 45 minutes is already available at an impressive 2.77. If the visitors from Mallorca manage to get (at least) a point in the end, the Barcelona vs. Mallorca tip on the double chance X2 brings 4.40 at Winamax. I’m placing this bet with a small stake of two units.