Bayern’s squad depth against Inter put to the test
13 years after the first “Finale Dahoam”, FC Bayern is again aiming for the final of the Champions League this season, which will take place at the Allianz Arena in Munich on May 31. However, the prevailing confidence at Säbener Straße has recently been dented. The reason for this is the record champions’ injury crisis, which has taken on dramatic proportions with the latest blow being the loss of Jamal Musiala. Despite the bulging and prominently filled sick bay, there are good arguments for backing the Bundesliga club between Bayern and Inter Milan.
In any case, it takes a good balance of controlled offense and stable defense to break the bulwark from Lombardy. The fact that the Nerazzurri, with only two goals conceded in ten CL games, are playing the best defense in this European Cup season, is of course still to be considered in view of the Bayern vs.
In general, the opinions of the experts differ in this exciting CL quarter-final. While many experts consider the absences on the part of the hosts to be too serious, other scene experts argue that Inter’s team may be “too old” and will have problems against FCB’s power football and high pressing.
Bayern vs. Inter Milan prediction AI
Not only the betting providers, but also artificial intelligence sees FC Bayern in the lead on Tuesday evening. This is confirmed, for example, by the predicted xG values, which in turn can be converted into win probabilities by “BETSiE”. Bayern have an xG value of 1.82 and a 52.3% probability of winning, while Inter are expected to score 1.18 goals. Adding these two values together results in a total xG value of 3.00, which is surprisingly high and is therefore priced accordingly. The Bayern vs. Inter Milan AI prediction is therefore for at least three goals in the game.
Bayern – Statistics & current form
Actually, the anticipation of the Champions League quarter-final against Inter Milan should prevail among the players and fans of FC Bayern. However, in addition to the more than tense personnel situation, there is another side issue that is currently concerning the record champions’ supporters: the Thomas Müller issue. It has been clear for a few days that the FCB icon will not be offered a new contract and will therefore have to leave his heart club as a player in the summer. As a consequence, sporting director Max Eberl is (once again) being accused of poor communication and poor decision-making.
Bayern have not lost a CL home game in four years
The professionals, including the coaching staff, must now focus on the essentials and focus on the upcoming first leg. After an average league phase and the lackluster advancement in the playoffs against Celtic Glasgow, the kickers from the Isar have smelled dynamite thanks to the two great performances in the last sixteen against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. This is also underlined by the Bayern vs. Inter Milan odds on the Bundesliga side progressing. In the run-up to the first leg, Bwin is offering 1.66 for Munich to make it to the semi-finals.
A potential argument for a first-leg victory on Tuesday evening is their home strength. FCB have not lost any of their last 22 CL home games (17-5-0) and last suffered a defeat at the Allianz Arena in April 2021. It is also positive to note that the German record champions have only lost one of their last 14 European matches against Italian representatives (11-2-1). The most recent two direct duels in the 2022/23 CL group stage also ended with a Bavarian victory against FC Internazionale.
Kompany has to improvise on personnel
Nevertheless, the list of injuries must be looked at in more detail. Musiala, Davies, Upamecano, Ito and Neuer are out for the rest of the tournament. Pavlovic and Coman are also likely to miss the midweek game. The starting eleven is therefore more or less set. Thomas Müller will probably get another chance to enjoy important starting eleven appearances on his farewell tour and help with his unorthodox style of play.
I see the goalkeeper position as particularly problematic, as Jonas Urbig has little experience in such big games and, especially in set-piece situations or as a “libero” in the remaining defense, still has a lot of room for improvement compared to the injured Neuer. Offensively, meanwhile, hopes rest on Harry Kane, who has scored twelve points in his eleven CL appearances this season. I also have the in-form Leroy Sané on my list of possible scorers. If you share this idea, you can find hot betting odds of up to 4.00 at Bet365 for a Sané goal between Bayern and Inter Milan.
Inter Milan – Statistics & current form
Inter Milan suffered a setback in the race for the Scudetto at the weekend. Despite taking a 2-0 lead into the second half, the black and blues only managed a disappointing 2-2 draw in Parma. It was not the first time this season that coach Simone Inzaghi’s team had noticeably weakened after the break. Interestingly, Inter Milan have lost seven second halves in the current Serie A season, while only winning three first halves.
It would be presumptuous to conclude from this statistic alone that the Milan team, which looks a bit outdated in some positions, is struggling with fitness and stamina problems, but it does seem that the Italian champions are not coping as well with the tight succession of important games with numerous weeks of matches as a younger team that regenerates faster.
The Inter bulwark must be broken through
In principle, it can be assumed that “La Beneamata” will approach the first match on the Isar with a lot of caution and defensive stability. No wonder, because the outstandingly functioning back line is the biggest plus that Coach Inzaghi can throw into the ring on the way to a potential triple. In the ten CL games played so far this season, the black and blues have only conceded two goals. The 2010 winner of the Champions League has kept a clean sheet eight times already. Scoring against Yann Sommer and his teammates up front is anything but an easy task.
In view of the approaches described, I think it is unquestionably a sensible option to predict a goalless first half before the game between Bayern and Inter Milan. Combined with the double chance 1X, which would also include a draw, with which the guests from the Italian fashion capital would certainly be completely satisfied, you can get exciting top odds of 1.91 at Betano.
If you have even more faith in the Nerazzurri and, in view of eight wins in their last nine CL games and the fact that Inter have only been behind by five minutes in ten matches in this Champions League season, would like to bet on an away win on Tuesday evening, you can try this at a top rate of 3.89 at Merkur Bets.
Bayern – Inter Milan Head-to-Head / H2H Record
This will be the tenth time that FC Bayern and Inter Milan have faced each other in a competitive game on Tuesday evening. Five wins, one draw and three defeats are on the record for the Munich side so far, who lead the direct comparison and have also won the last two direct duels in the CL group stage 22/23 2-0 each time.
Nevertheless, only Real Madrid have eliminated FCB from the Champions League more often than the Milanese. Twice it was a case of progressing or being eliminated, both times the black and blues had the upper hand. This was also the case in the 2010 CL final, which long-standing Bayern fans will surely still have in the back of their minds.
Bayern – Inter Milan Tip
The pure anticipation at FC Bayern for the crunch time this season has recently given way to a certain fear of still having to gamble away the championship and relatively quickly bury the dream of “Finale Dahoam 2.0”. The reason for this is the incredible injury misery, which in my opinion is even being somewhat overdramatized. Especially in offense, coach Kompany still has great options available.
I’ll even go one step further and believe that Harry Kane and Co. will win their home game against the Serie A leaders. A corresponding bet at Winamax pays a top rate of 2.00. But an even more exciting tip between Bayern and Inter Milan is the 1X & Under 1.5 (1st half). On the one hand, I don’t think that either of the two teams will take unnecessary risks in the first 45 of a total of at least 180 minutes of play. On the other hand, the guests from Milan have no obligation to play for a win. I am therefore playing the aforementioned combination at a top rate of 1.91 with five units.