Will the Reds make light work of St. Pauli at home?

While the muscles were flexed in the Champions League in the German duel with Leverkusen, Munich only got one out of six possible points in the Bundesliga before the international break, even though their opponents, Bochum (2:3) and Union Berlin (1:1), were both from the lower third of the table. Against this background, it could backfire to carelessly tip the likely home win of the Reds at Bayern against St. Pauli – especially in the context of accumulator bets.

Although the record champions rarely had much of a chance against the Kiezkicker, against whom they have won eight of their last nine competitive games (one defeat). However, the FCSP also only just managed to get off the mark before the international break with a 1-0 win against Hoffenheim. The Hamburgers also know how to defend effectively, which is why the prognosis for the game between Bayern and St. Pauli is that the brown-and-whites will at least not be crushed on the Isar.

The fact that FC St. Pauli is still in the relegation battle is more a result of its offensive deficiencies than its defensive permeability. The only 30 goals conceded are only undercut by Mainz (28) and Bayern (24) in the league. The Kiezkicker have not conceded more than two goals in a game since October 5, 2024, and the first leg at the Millerntor also ended in a narrow 1-0 home defeat.

It therefore makes sense to place a handicap of +3 on the north Germans, which, in addition to any surprising point win in the Allianz Arena, also covers any defeat with a maximum goal difference of two. The useful Betano app quotes this at 1.65.

Bayern vs. St. Pauli forecast AI

Supercomputer BETSiE has nothing against our human tip. The AI calculates an expected goals value of 2.55 for FCB and 0.43 for FCSP, resulting in a difference of 2.12, which is why the +3 for the Kiezkicker is considered risky by the AI, but equally still a likely result.

The greater value, on the other hand, can be found in the AI forecast for the match between Bayern and St. Pauli in the tip for under 3.5 goals, since the added expected goals value of this match is 2.98. Bet-at-home offers odds of 1.70 for this. New customers can also claim a 100% bonus up to €100 with the Bet-at-home welcome bonus.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

For the second time under Vincent Kompany, Bayern Munich went without a win in two Bundesliga games in a row. After losing 3-2 in Bochum and drawing 1-1 at Union Berlin, the Reds gave up as many points in two games as they had previously in their last 12 Bundesliga games combined. Although Bayern are still at the top of the table, the pressure in the title race against Leverkusen has at least increased again somewhat.

Despite the minor setback, the offense remains the record champions’ showpiece. With 75 goals scored this season, Munich leads the Bundesliga. Leroy Sané has already scored seven goals in 2025 alone (four goals, three assists) – the same number as in the whole of 2024. Meanwhile, Harry Kane continues to lead the Bundesliga scoring charts with 21 goals, although he has not scored in his last five Bundesliga appearances – a dry spell the likes of which the Englishman has never experienced in Munich.

Will Bayern get back on track in the league too?

FCB also remain strong defensively: 24 goals conceded is the best defense in the Bundesliga. On average, the Reds only allow 55 opposing shots on goal – also a league-wide best. Munich is a force to be reckoned with at home: they have won six of their previous eight Bundesliga duels against FCSP (one draw, one defeat), which is why the tip for the home win of the record champions is also looking good for Bayern against St. Pauli. New customers can get odds of 15.00 for a simple win for Bayern with the Oddset Odds Turbo.

However, Vincent Kompany will have to do without the injured defensive duo of Davies and Upamecano, which is a serious blow. However, a glance at the personnel shows that the Belgian likes to rotate a lot anyway. With 81 changes to the starting eleven, Munich has the second-highest number in the Bundesliga. This flexibility could prove to be a trump card in the tight match schedule – especially against a team like St. Pauli, which defends with great effort but has so far hardly posed any danger, especially in offense.

St. Pauli – Statistics & current form

With the 1-0 home win against Hoffenheim, FC St. Pauli recently ended their winless streak in this Bundesliga season. After previously six games without a win (two draws, four defeats), the Kiezkicker breathed a sigh of relief. Nevertheless, with only a five-point lead over the relegation place, the situation remains tense. On the road, Hamburg have not won in three games for the first time this season (one draw, two defeats).

The biggest problem continues to be in attack. The promoted team have scored just 20 goals in 26 Bundesliga games. That is the lowest tally in the league. A total of only 50 goals have been scored in Hamburger SV’s games (20-30) – fewer than any other team in Bundesliga history at this point in time, which is why the odds for a match not being too high-scoring are looking good for Bayern against St. Pauli. After all, the defense is stable and has only conceded 30 goals – the third-best record in the top flight of German football.

St. Pauli’s stability comes at the expense of offensive power

Particularly noteworthy: no team allowed more opposing passes before a defensive action. The so-called PPDA value of 15.8 is the highest in the league. This underlines the rather cautious, structured pressing of the promoted team, which relies on a stable basic order. Only 105 shots on goal were allowed. Only Bayern Munich undercut this value in the league.

In terms of personnel, the Kiezkicker rely on consistency: Hürzeler’s successor Alexander Blessin has made only 30 changes to the starting eleven – by far the lowest number in the league. Six times this season, FCSP lined up with exactly the same starting XI as in the previous game. However, more than just defensive discipline is needed at the Isar, especially since Harry Kane is sure to be particularly motivated despite his goal-less streak: after all, St. Pauli is the only current Bundesliga club he has never scored against…

Bayern – St. Pauli Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 15 – 3 – 5

Only 23 encounters have taken place between the two teams, and with 15 wins, FC Bayern Munich, who also won the first leg at the Millerntor 1-0, leads the direct comparison very clearly. The German record champions have won a total of eight of their last nine competitive games against FC St. Pauli (one defeat).

Bayern – St. Pauli Betting Tip

Although the odds of the top bookmakers are clearly in favor of Bayern against St. Pauli, However, assuming a completely unchallenged and clear home victory for the Reds could turn out to be a mistake. After all, the Kiezkicker know how to effectively keep opponents away from their own goal, as evidenced by the fact that the FCSP has only allowed 105 shots against – the second-best figure in the league – and with 30 goals conceded, they have the third-best defense in the Bundesliga. Even in the first leg, they only conceded one goal against Bayern’s brilliant offense in the 1-0 home defeat, with FCB having an expected goals value of just 0.80.

The prediction that Hamburg will lose by a maximum of two goals at the Allianz Arena against St. Pauli therefore seems very interesting. After all, the FCSP has not conceded more than two goals in any of the last 20 Bundesliga games.