Will there be another goal spectacle at the Estádio da Luz?

The round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League also features a tie that, in retrospect, provided the craziest spectacle in the league phase. When Benfica and Barcelona faced each other on the penultimate matchday at the end of January, no fewer than nine goals were scored. Thanks to a furious finish, the Catalans came out on top 5-4 in the Portuguese capital. For the first leg of the round of 16 between Benfica Lisbon and Barcelona, another prediction of a few goals seems likely.

After all, coach Hansi Flick’s team is probably currently the best and most potent offense in all of Europe. In only two of the eight league phase matches in the premier class did Yamal, Raphinha, Lewandowski and Co. not score at least three of their own goals. Although the extremely high and forward-defending line of defense is a risky game in a way, the tendency before the clash of Benfica Lisbon with Barcelona is clearly to predict the progress of the La Liga frontrunners.

This is also underlined by the Benfica Lisbon vs. Barcelona odds of the best bookmakers, who already give the star ensemble from the Gaudí city a better chance of winning in the first leg at the Estádio da Luz. For example, the Interwetten app offers 1.90 for the away win of the “Blaugranas”.

Benfica Lisbon vs. Barcelona Prediction AI

With a probability of almost 55%, “BETSiE” believes in at least a draw for the home side. However, since the betting provider Betano is offering as much as 1.98 for double chance 1X, “BETSiE” believes there is definitely value to be found in this. Even the Benfica vs. Barcelona AI prediction for the home win brings value, as the AI has calculated a significantly higher probability of victory for the Portuguese than the bookmakers.

Benfica Lisbon – Statistics & current form

The current Champions League season has taken a surprisingly positive turn for Benfica Lisbon. Facing the threat of an early exit before the final matchday of the league phase, the Portuguese team pushed its way up to 16th place with a 2-0 away win over Juventus, thereby drawing a feasible opponent in AS Monaco for the playoffs. After the 1-0 win in the principality, a 3-3 draw was enough a week later, in which the “Os Encarnados” had to survive several moments of trepidation and only managed to equalize with six minutes left on the clock.

Benfica are flying the Portuguese flag in the premier league

Nevertheless, the bottom line is an absolutely positive result in the round of 16, which is all the more significant given that direct rivals Sporting Lisbon or FC Porto and Braga are no longer allowed to compete at the international level in the Europa League. The red-and-whites now want to make life difficult for the Catalan side, who are contenders for the Champions League title, and put themselves in a position on Wednesday evening that will allow them to continue dreaming of a place in the quarter-finals.

Admittedly, the first leg between Benfica and Barcelona does not bode well for the hosts. Coach Bruno Lage’s team have won just one of their five CL home games so far this season and have only managed to beat Spanish clubs in two of their last twelve home international matches (2-4-6). At least the Eagles have had plenty of time to prepare for the encounter at home, with the league game originally scheduled for the weekend being moved to create the best possible conditions.

However, if, for understandable reasons, you are uncomfortable setting betting odds in the three-way market in the first leg of Benfica Lisbon against Barcelona, you should definitely take a look at the goal statistics of “Os Aguías”. In ten CL games in 2024/25 involving Benfica, the ball crossed the line 35 times (20 goals, 15 conceded). In the five home games mentioned, there were 23 goals (⌀ 4.6). In four of them, the Over 3.5 would have come through. Three of the games even saw at least two goals in the first 45 minutes, meaning that both Over 1.5 (1st half) and Over 3.5 after 90 minutes will find a place in the top tip table.

Barcelona – Statistics & current form

It’s still too early to talk about Hansi Flick being a hero at FC Barcelona, considering he’s only played 40 competitive games in his eight-month tenure, but the former Bayern coach is already on his way to becoming immortal in the Catalonian metropolis. All titles are still possible this season.

The “Blaugranas” are back at the top of the league thanks to six wins in a row, they are playing Atletico Madrid in the semi-final of the Spanish King’s Cup, and FCB is also one of the hottest contenders for the CL title at the international level.

Will the Barca offense steamroll over an opponent again?

The fact that the Catalans are currently being given a lot of credit is primarily due to their outstanding offense. No other team scored more goals in the group stage than the “Blaugranas”. 28 goals were scored in eight matches, which is exactly 3.5 on average per game. At the same time, however, no other club that qualified directly for the round of 16 conceded more goals. 41 goals were scored in eight Barca matches. The Over 2.5 would have been successful in every game, while the Over 3.5 would have been successful in six. It is therefore hardly surprising that the odds on a high-scoring game between Benfica Lisbon and Barcelona are appealing. You can find a huge selection of over bets in the Betway app, for example.

Meanwhile, the favorites also look very strong, especially since Hansi Flick has taken to the sidelines 26 times in the Champions League as head coach, celebrating 22 victories for his two previous clubs. Of all coaches who have been in charge of at least ten CL games, the former German national coach has the best win rate! It is also interesting to note that Robert Lewandowski performs particularly well under Flick. In 21 CL games under his management, the Pole scores a whopping 24 goals. But Raphinha (twelve scorer points) and Yamal are also definite possibilities as potential goal scorers.

Benfica Lisbon – Barcelona Direct comparison / H2H record

Ten CL encounters stand between these clubs in the statistics. Barcelona celebrated twice as many wins (4) as Benfica (2). Four encounters ended in a draw. Only the pairing of Manchester United and Bayern has been more frequent in the Champions League.

Benfica have won only two of their last twelve matches against Spanish teams in European competition. Barcelona, meanwhile, have lost only one of their last ten away games against Portuguese representatives. The most memorable of these, however, was the aforementioned 5-4 win for the “Blaugranas” at the end of January, when Pavlidis scored a hat-trick in the first 30 minutes to give his side a 3-1 lead, but Barcelona managed to pull three goals back after the 77th minute.

Benfica Lisbon – Barcelona betting tip

FC Barcelona are favorites going into the first leg at Benfica Lisbon. The Catalans have had a great league campaign, taking 19 out of a possible 24 points and scoring by far the most goals. Apart from that, the blue-and-reds are also bringing a lot of momentum into this duel. The team, coached by CL-record coach Flick, has not lost in 14 competitive games. They have even emerged victorious in 11 of these 14 games. The star ensemble from Spain continues to dance at all weddings and, thanks to their well-oiled offense, is always in a position to score many goals.

That’s why I’m convinced that FCB will win the first leg in the Portuguese capital. Secondly, just as in the league phase clash between these teams (5:4 for Barca), I expect a lot of goals in the game. Finally, my Benfica Lisbon vs. Barcelona betting tip is on Over 1.5 (1st half). The maximum odds are 1.95 and I will place five out of a maximum of ten units on this at Interwetten.