Is La Verde facing the threat of being knocked out of the top seven?
Last fall, it looked like Bolivia would qualify for the World Cup for the first time since 1994. Then, however, “La Verde” again remained winless in four consecutive qualifiers (one draw, three defeats). If the home win bet doesn’t pay off for Bolivia against Uruguay either, the very shaky seventh place in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers, which would only lead to the intercontinental playoffs anyway, could be over.
However, the sky-blue guests are not exactly coming in top form. The Uruguayan selection has only won one of their last ten international matches (six draws, three defeats) and recently suffered a 0-1 home defeat against Argentina. Consequently, the prediction of an away win for La Celeste in the Bolivia v Uruguay game is by no means a foregone conclusion, especially as the Bolivian team won their last home game against Uruguay 3-0.
Overall, however, this South American duel was clearly in the hands of the guests. Uruguay won 32 of the 47 meetings and not only beat Bolivia 5-0 in the Copa América, but also celebrated a 3-0 victory over “La Verde” in the first leg of the 2026 World Cup qualifier. In our opinion, another home win for the Bolivians would come as a surprise, but they have recently picked up four out of a possible six points at home against Colombia (1-0) and Paraguay (2-2).
Bolivia – Statistics & current form
The Bolivian national football team has only taken part in three World Cups so far – in 1930, 1950 and 1994. In the past, it was practically always certain well in advance that ‘La Verde’ would not make it to the most important finals. But with up to seven of the ten nations from the South American football association CONMEBOL being allowed to take part in the 2026 World Cup for the first time, the Bolivians now see their big chance.
Last fall, things were looking really good after three wins in a row, before a recent period of weakness set Bolivia back again. Óscar Villegas’s team have only won one of the last twelve possible points from the last four World Cup qualifiers, and since taking office, the interim upturn in form has also led to criticism, especially after the crucial game against rivals Peru was lost 3-1.
Bolivia have conceded too many goals again
Defensive stability remains the annoying recurring theme for “La Verde”. After conceding only one goal in total in the first three games under Villegas, the Bolivian team has now conceded 15 goals in four consecutive international matches. It is all the more surprising that in the case of Bolivia against Uruguay, the odds of the best bookmakers are tipping in the direction of the home side. In the Bet365 app, the odds of 2.20 for tip 1 make the Bolivians favorites.
This is also questionable in view of the fact that the most recent record clearly speaks against Bolivia. The last two international matches against Uruguay ended in crushing defeats, 0-8 in each case. Just last year at the Copa América, “La Verde” was completely overrun 0-5. And yet: home advantage is always an issue for the Bolivians. It is not for nothing that none of the last four home matches in the World Cup qualifiers have been lost (three wins, one draw).
Provisional line-up for Bolivia:
Viscarra – Sagredo, Morales, Haquín, Medina – Vaca, Cuellar, Villamil – Fernández, Algaranaz, Miguelito
Uruguay – Statistics & current form
The Uruguayan national football team has already won the World Cup twice (1930 and 1950) and has been a regular at the World Cup finals again. In the current millennium, “La Celeste” only missed the finals in Germany and was otherwise always part of the party, although it recently reached the preliminary round in Qatar. Nevertheless, a certain self-image has emerged, at the latest with the increase to up to seven South American nations, not wanting to miss any more World Cups.
Uruguay are also on a very good path. With 20 points from 13 games in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers, the sky-blue team is in fourth place in the table and, as things stand, would be guaranteed a direct ticket to the 2026 World Cup. They have a proud seven-point lead over seventh place, which would still lead to the intercontinental playoffs. But if the tip for a home win by Bolivia against Uruguay comes true, then the current seventh-placed team would reduce the gap to the Uruguayan team to four points.
Uruguay even scored in Brazil recently
First and foremost, Uruguay must avoid an away defeat at the Estadio Municipal de El Alto, which should be possible in principle. Although their last game in Bolivia was lost 3-0, Marcelo Bielsa’s side have a strong record against La Verde and have only lost three of their last ten internationals (one win, six draws).
In their last away game in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers, “La Celeste” also picked up an important point in a 1-1 draw with Brazil. The Sky Blues did, however, lose 1-0 at home to leaders Argentina during this international break. Nevertheless, they should have the means to score against the crisis-hit Bolivians.
Uruguay’s provisional line-up:
Rochet – Olivera, Giménez, R. Araújo, Nandez – Cáceres, Bentacur, Valverde – M. Araújo, Núnez, Pellistri
Bolivia – Uruguay head to head record
Head to head: 8 – 7 – 32
A total of 47 internationals have taken place between the two nations so far, and with 32 wins, Uruguay leads the direct comparison very clearly. Most recently, “La Celeste” beat Bolivia 5-0 in the Copa América 2024. There was also a commanding 3-0 home victory for the sky blues in the first leg of the 2026 World Cup qualifier.
Bolivia – Uruguay Tip
All in all, our prediction for Bolivia against Uruguay tends towards the guests winning points. Although they have only won one of their last ten international matches (six draws, three defeats), overall they are not too easy to beat. “La Verde” has not won any of their last four international matches (one draw, three defeats) and is therefore entering this home game in a weak form.
Uruguay has also won the last two internationals against Bolivia very clearly, scoring a total of 8 goals to none. That is why, despite the home strength of the Bolivians, we favor the double chance X2.