Does Brazil have to continue to fear for their World Cup participation?
At the beginning of the month, there were signs that Neymar would return to the Brazilian national team. For the first time since his cruciate ligament rupture in October 2023, the superstar was supposed to be back on the pitch for the Seleção. Unfortunately, however, this will not happen now, because the now 33-year-old has been dropped from the squad due to a new injury and must therefore continue to wait for his comeback. Nevertheless, the odds for the host and record world champions are lower between Brazil and Colombia.
And this despite the fact that coach Dorival Júnior’s team have not performed well in the World Cup qualifiers so far, winning fewer than half of all matches (five out of twelve). After four consecutive unbeaten matches, the Brazilians are still in a relatively comfortable position in the standings, albeit behind their upcoming opponent, who also won the first leg. This time, however, home advantage tips the scales in favor of the Seleção in the Brazil vs. Colombia prediction.
In view of the not to be underestimated performance density in the CONMEBOL zone and the generally low number of goals scored in the South American World Cup qualifiers, it must be critically questioned whether there is value in the odds on home success before the duel between Brazil and Colombia. At the top, only 1.80 is offered on the victory of the star ensemble from the Sugar Loaf.
Brazil – Statistics & current form
The Brazilian national football team is already being traded in the bookmakers’ sports betting apps as one of the hottest contenders for the 2026 World Cup title in the USA, Canada and Mexico. However, after a disappointing qualification so far, there are still doubts as to whether the record world champion will even be at the starting line for the upcoming finals.
The Seleção have been lagging behind for a long time
After twelve match days, “Os Canarinhos” have only 18 points on the account. As already mentioned, they have only won five of their matches. Three draws and as many as four defeats round off the overall record, which is only enough for fifth place in the interim ranking. However, since the first six national teams in the CONMEBOL qualifiers secure a direct ticket to the 2026 World Cup, they now have a five-point lead over the team in seventh place.
Nevertheless, it could still be a close call for the star ensemble of coach Dorival Júnior, who has actually only been in charge since taking up office as a placeholder for a renowned foreign coach. Especially with the next two games against Colombia and then at arch-rivals Argentina in mind. That being said, it is not only about securing a top-six finish at the end of the qualifiers for the highly-rated Sugar Loaf kickers, but also about rebuilding their self-confidence and allowing them to dream of a major coup next year.
However, the Brazilians are currently a long way from achieving this. The 2024 football year ended with two disappointing draws in Venezuela (1-1) and at home against Uruguay (1-1). The Copa America last summer also ended in the quarter-finals. They have only won six of the last 14 international matches. In view of this, I would advise against a forecast of a home win between Brazil and Colombia, especially since the corresponding odds do not exceed 1.80 and therefore do not offer any value. A compromise suggestion would be to combine double chance 1X with under 1.5 goals in the first 45 minutes. More than one goal in the first half has only been scored in one of twelve Brazilian qualifying matches so far. You can also put together and bet on corresponding match combos in the Betano app.
Brazil’s expected line-up:
Alisson – Vanderson, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Arana – Guimarães, Andre – Raphinha, Rodrygo, Vinicius – Pedro
Colombia – Statistics & current form
In September 2024, the Colombian national team was still the only team from the CONMEBOL zone to be unbeaten in the qualifiers. After a 2-1 home win against world champions Argentina, “Los Cafeteros” were in second place with four wins and four draws. However, the team coached by Argentinean Nestor Lorenzo has since slipped to fourth place. The deciding factor here was three defeats in the last four match days.
Colombia kept a clean sheet in three of six qualifying away matches
The Colombians lost in Bolivia, in Uruguay and finally at home to Ecuador. Nevertheless, a six-point lead is a comfortable cushion, with which the finalist of the last Copa America can look ahead to the upcoming tasks with some relief.
If you think Lorenzo’s team can get a draw in Brasilia on Thursday night, you can get odds of 3.60 on the Bet365 app for the Brazil v Colombia match. With the Bet365 bonus code in March 2025, your first deposit of up to €100 will be automatically doubled. After all, three of the Colombians’ six previous World Cup qualifiers have ended in draws.
There is also much to suggest that the team, ranked twelfth in the world, which actually has its stars in offense with Luis Diaz, James Rodriguez or Jhon Duran, will once again choose a very reactive, defensive approach. In the six away games mentioned, the national team, which surprisingly failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, scored just nine meager goals. The under 2.5 would have been accepted five times, and in four cases even the under 1.5. In my opinion, the odds for a maximum of two goals in the game between Brazil and Colombia can therefore be put on the betting slip with a clear conscience. Alternatively, the quotes of 2.60 for a goalless first half at Interwetten are very interesting. Especially because these can be combined with the Interwetten voucher.
Predicted Colombia line-up:
Ospina – Muñoz, Sanchez, Lucumí, Mojica – Lerma, Ríos – Diaz, Rodriguez, Sinisterra – Durán
Brazil – Colombia Head to head / H2H record
Looking back at the last 11 qualifying duels between these teams in this millennium, only three of them would have been won by Over 2.5. Five of those encounters ended goalless. In seven of the clashes, there was not a single shot on target in the first 45 minutes. The head-to-head also shows a clear under-scoring picture, which, however, was slightly marred in the first leg. In November 2023, “Los Cafeteros” won 2-1 in Barranquilla. Martinelli gave the Brazilians a lead after four minutes, Liverpool star Luis Diaz turned the game in favor of the Colombians within four minutes (75th/79th).
Brazil – Colombia Tip
Lots of world stars will be in attendance at the Arena BRB Mane Garrincha in Brasilia on Thursday night. There is no shortage of big names or individual quality, especially in the attacking ranks of the national teams from the Sugar Loaf and the northern tip of South America. At first glance, it may therefore be somewhat surprising that all my assessments are associated with rather few goals in the course of the game. However, the CONMEBOL zone is well known for rather little spectacle and well-functioning defenses.
Apart from that, a lot is at stake in the direct duel. The loser may have to continue fearing for a direct ticket to the 2026 World Cup. I therefore expect a cautious visiting team in the first instance, as well as a home team that will struggle against a compact, multi-legged defense. My Brazil vs Colombia betting tip is therefore on the double chance 1X with a maximum of one goal in the first half. For this, a 1.62 is offered at Betano, which I play with seven units. Alternatively, you can bet on a 0-0 at half-time or on a game with a maximum of two total goals.