Can the Villans get a big point on the south coast?

On Wednesday evening, the Premier League will see a clash between two direct competitors in the battle for European spots. The Seagulls are in seventh place with 47 points. Two points and two places behind them, the Villans are lurking for their chance. So if the tip for an away win by the Lions should come true against Aston Villa, the guests from Birmingham would certainly overtake Albion.

For the Hürzeler team, the motto is to avert a home defeat at all costs, while a point could be too little in the fight with Manchester City and Newcastle United for the Europa League starting positions. Factors that could lead to a very high scoring game in this match, which both teams absolutely want to win. Accordingly, a prediction for a correspondingly turbulent game is consistent with Brighton against Aston Villa.

The balance speaks for the guests, who have only lost one of their last five Premier League away games at the AMEX Stadium (two wins, two draws). However, the Seagulls have won their last three Premier League home games in a row. Brighton also scored at least two of their own goals in five consecutive league games, which in turn underlines our assessment that this duel for a European spot is likely to be quite a goal-fest.

Brighton – Statistics & current form

Brighton & Hove Albion are currently stronger at home than ever before in the Premier League. The Seagulls have won their last three home games in a row and could now win four league home games in a row for the first time in their top-flight history. Particularly remarkable: in their last five Premier League games, the Hürzeler team has always scored at least twice. There has never been a streak like this in the club’s history in the top flight.

The team from the south coast of England also managed to beat Aston Villa in the most recent direct duel: in May 2024, the Seagulls won 1-0 at home. It was their first home win in five Premier League home games against the Villans (two draws, two defeats). Winamax is now offering odds of 2.10 for a repeat of this success in the Brighton v Aston Villa game.

Brighton continues to set its sights on a European competition

The Seagulls’ style of play has also been impressive this season, and with only two points separating them from fourth place, they are still in with a chance of reaching the Champions League. No team gets the ball forward through dribbling as often as Jan Paul van Hecke (4,256 meters) and Kaoru Mitoma (3,235 meters), who top the league in this statistic. At the same time, Albion are among the most stable teams in the Premier League when it comes to set-pieces, having conceded just six goals from set-pieces. Only Manchester City (five) and Brentford (three) have defended set-pieces more efficiently.

João Pedro also feels particularly comfortable against the Villans. He has been directly involved in more goals against no other Premier League opponent (four; one goal, three assists). The Brazilian has also scored from the penalty spot in each of his last two home appearances. A third consecutive home goal would be a first for the club, with only four Brighton players having achieved the feat in the Premier League.

Aston Villa – Statistics & current form

Aston Villa have bounced back from a loss in their last three Premier League games with two wins, picking up as many points in that short span as they did in their previous nine matches, and continue to dance on all four corners. They are favorites in the FA Cup semi-final against Crystal Palace and could play for a title at Wembley this summer.

If Unai Emery’s side beat Aston Villa at Brighton, it would also mean that the Birmingham club would win two consecutive away games for the first time since the start of the season and overtake the Seagulls in the table. Overall, the balance of recent years certainly suggests that. The Villans have won seven of their last nine league games against Brighton. Between November 2021 and September 2023, they even won five in a row before starting the current streak of two games without a win against the south English side (one draw, one defeat).

Aston Villa are hoping for Watkins and resting balls

Aston Villa are among the most dangerous Premier League teams from set pieces. 13 goals from dead balls (excluding penalties) are the best in the league – and that while maintaining a high level of stability in defense. But: with 20 games each in which there was always not only one of their own goals but also at least one goal against, Villa and Brighton are at the top. So a spectacle seems guaranteed.

Although Marcus Rashford broke his duck in the FA Cup on the weekend in the 3-0 win over Preston and the loan from Manchester United scored twice, Ollie Watkins remains Unai Emery’s most reliable scorer. Eleven of his 13 league goals led directly to the lead or to the equalizer – only Mo Salah and Erling Haaland (each 14) as well as Alexander Isak (twelve) top this value. His efficiency will be crucial again against an attacking Brighton.

Brighton – Aston Villa Head to head / H2H record

Head to head: 6 – 10 – 18

A total of 34 meetings have taken place between the two teams so far, with Aston Villa winning more than half of them with 18 victories. The Lions were unable to get past a 2-2 draw against Brighton in the first leg, but they have only lost one of their last five Premier League visits to the Seagulls (two wins, two draws).

Brighton – Aston Villa Tip

Although the betting odds of the best bookmakers are against the Seagulls, who have been so strong at home recently, in the game against Aston Villa, However, it should be noted that the Villans have also been in great form recently and have only lost one of their last five Premier League away games at the AMEX Stadium (two wins, two draws). Now that winter signing Marcus Rashford has finally broken his duck, the Lions can once again hope to get something out of a game on the south coast.

But of course the Villans won’t get any points for a walkover at AMEX Stadium. There is a lot to be said for a hard-fought match that has a lot of potential to be a spectacle in terms of goals. We therefore recommend betting on at least three goals in the match between Brighton and Aston Villa.