Will FCB get off to a good start?

One of the consequences of the new UEFA Champions League format, with a total of eight matches in the league phase, is that some teams will cross paths several times. This is also the case for these two teams, who already met in the Jan Breydel Stadium on November 6, 2024. At the time, FCB won 1-0. Does this mean that the tip for a home win for West Flanders against Bruges against Aston Villa is under a lucky star?

If the bookmakers have anything to do with it, the answer is no. If you consider betting on Bruges beating Aston Villa in the first leg, you get higher odds for it. Perhaps that is why an outsider bet is also a serious option. Including matches in the qualifying rounds, FCB have only lost one of their last 14 European competitive matches at home (nine wins, four draws).

Aston Villa, meanwhile, have had a mixed record away from home. The Lions have alternated between away wins and away defeats. The 0-1 defeat at Bruges was followed by a 3-2 win at RB Leipzig. If this trend continues, the recent 0-1 defeat at AS Monaco should now be followed by a win again. However, the Villans are not really strong away from home. In the Premier League, they have lost seven of 13 games on foreign soil (four wins, two draws).

The last clash between the two teams was also low on goals, with FCB winning 1-0 only thanks to a converted penalty. We expect a very tactical game this time too and therefore recommend betting on under 2.5 goals in the first leg, which can be played at Winamax at odds of 1.82.

Bruges – Statistics & current form

This is a historic moment for Club Brugge. For the first time since the 1977/78 season, the Belgians could reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League. After convincing victories in both playoff duels against Atalanta Bergamo (2-1 at home, 3-1 away), the team now wants to overcome the next hurdle. Particularly impressive: FCB have only lost one of their last 14 European home games (nine wins, four draws). The only defeat came at the start of this Champions League season, when they lost 3-0 to Borussia Dortmund. That’s why the tip of another good result for West Flanders against Bruges against Aston Villa is not that far-fetched.

However, Bruges’ record against English teams remains sobering. They have only won one of their last 16 matches against Premier League clubs (three draws, twelve defeats). However, that solitary victory was the aforementioned 1-0 win over Aston Villa in November 2024, in which Hans Vanaken scored from the penalty spot. This season, the Belgians could now manage to win three Champions League games in a row – a feat last achieved in the 2022 group stage under Carl Hoefkens.

Can Bruges count on Chemsdine Talbi again?

Chemsdine Talbi could provide offensive impetus. The Belgian was directly involved in three goals (two goals, one assist) in the last two Champions League games and could be the first Belgian teenager to score three goals in a single season in the premier class. Coach Nicky Hayen usually relies on a proven formation: with only nine changes to the starting eleven over ten games, FCB had the lowest rotation rate of all participating teams. The total of only 20 players used is also a low for this Champions League season, which makes the West Flemings easy to predict.

However, their defensive stability will be key to pulling off an upset against Aston Villa. Although the Blues only conceded one goal in both legs against Atalanta Bergamo, the team has already shown some defensive weaknesses in this Champions League season. They have scored seven goals but conceded eleven – the highest number of all the remaining teams in the competition…

Aston Villa – Statistics & current form

With five wins in eight games, Unai Emery’s team had a remarkable debut season in the most important European club competition. The Birmingham club has already surpassed the previous best of a newcomer to the Champions League, which had stood since Sevilla in 2007/08. The last team to make it to the quarter-finals as a debutant was Atalanta Bergamo (2019/20). The Lions are now also aiming for this goal.

However, the team’s form remains too inconsistent. They have won and lost in their last four away games in the Champions League. Most recently, they lost 1-0 at AS Monaco. However, if this trend continues, Villa could now get revenge for the 1-0 defeat at the Jan Breydel Stadium. The bookmakers think that’s not unlikely. The Bet365 app offers odds of 2.55 for Aston Villa to win away from home against Bruges.

Can Emiliano Martínez save Aston Villa again?

Goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez is likely to be a big factor in the battle for progression. The Argentina international has already prevented 4.4 more goals than the Expected-Goals-Against statistics (xGA) would suggest this season – the highest figure among all remaining goalkeepers. With a rate of 85 percent of shots saved, he has only been beaten six times this season – an outstanding figure considering the 39 shots on his goal.

Aston Villa are also well-positioned when building up play. Youri Tielemans is among the three best midfielders in the Champions League in this category, with 53 line-breaking passes under intense pressure from opponents – only Angelo Stiller (58) and Joshua Kimmich (54) are ahead of him.

However, the Lions did not only have a tough time in the Premier League away from home, where seven of their 13 away games were lost with 27 goals conceded (four wins, two draws), but their record against Belgian teams also leaves room for improvement. The club from Birmingham has only won one of their five previous duels with teams from the Jupiler Pro League (one draw, three defeats) – a 1-0 victory against Anderlecht that dates back to April 1982.

Bruges – Aston Villa Head to head: 1 – 0 – 0

The two teams already met in the league phase of the 2024/25 Champions League at the Jan Breydel Stadium. On November 6, 2024, FC Bruges celebrated a 1-0 home win against Aston Villa, with Hans Vanaken scoring from the penalty spot in a game that didn’t see many chances overall.

Bruges – Aston Villa Betting Tip

Although the prediction of another home win for Bruges against Aston Villa seems quite interesting, as very high odds are being offered for this despite the West Flanders team’s proven home strength, the three-way system is too risky overall. Much will depend on the Lions’ match plan. Will a draw be enough for the Villans to then make everything clear next week in Birmingham in front of their home crowd? Or does the Emery team want to set the course for a place in the quarter-finals in the first leg?

In any case, we do not expect either team to risk too much. Therefore, a similar course of play to the tactical league phase is most likely, which is why we see the greatest value in betting on under 2.5 goals.