Has La Roja hit rock bottom?

After 13 games in the CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifier 2026, the Chilean team has reached a new low. After the recent 0-1 loss to Paraguay, “La Roja” is holding the red lantern and is greeting from last place. If the tip for the home win of Chile against Ecuador does not work out, it would probably remain that way. But with only four points separating them from seventh place, they would still be in with a chance of reaching the intercontinental play-offs.

To do that, however, the Chileans need a turnaround at the end of the tunnel. After all, there has been no real effect from the change of coach last summer. Ricardo Gareca’s side have lost five of their eight internationals (two wins, one draw), which means that our prediction for the game between Chile and Ecuador leans firmly towards the visitors. The Ecuadorians have been one of the big winners in recent months, consolidating their second place with 14 out of a possible 18 points from their last six qualifiers.

While Chile’s chances of qualifying for the next World Cup are increasingly diminishing, Ecuador, with a nine-point lead over seventh-placed team, can slowly but surely start looking for a suitable base for the big tournament. This was also made possible by the fact that they have conceded just five goals in 13 qualifying matches.

Chile – Statistics & current form

The Chilean national football team experienced a remarkable upswing in the 2010s, reaching the knockout stage at the 2010 World Cup in South Africa and the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, before winning back-to-back Copa América titles in 2015 and 2016. These were the only two South American championships ever won by Chile.

In the meantime, however, the once golden generation has grown older. But there is still a lack of courage to push ahead with the radical changes that are so urgently needed. The mix of old stars, who have slowly but surely passed their peak, and promising young players is obviously not working. The recent 0-1 defeat in Paraguay means that Chile now even holds the red lantern in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifier.

Chile’s team structure is not right

Basically, the average age of 28.0 years in the youngest starting lineup in Paraguay was actually okay by South American standards. However, the team is simply lacking players in their prime. In front of ball-winner Arturo Vidal (37 years old) were three 22-year-olds: Alexander Aravena, Vicente Pizarro and Lucas Cepeda, who were supposed to feed 35-year-old Eduardo Vargas. Despite 64 percent possession, they managed just nine shots – and only one of them was really dangerous.

If you ignore a 6-1 friendly win over Panama, La Roja have lost five of their seven competitive internationals under new coach Ricardo Gareca (one win, one draw), which means that their qualification for the World Cup is more at risk than ever. It is all the more surprising, then, that the odds are now slightly in Chile’s favor against Ecuador. At Betano, where new customers can currently get a 100% bonus up to €80 as well as a €20 free bet with the Betano Bonus, the odds of 2.65 for the home side to win are on the books. They have scored just nine goals in 13 qualifiers.

Predicted Chile line-up:
Cortés – Suazo, Díaz, Maripán, Loyola – Echeverría, Vidal – Aravena, Pizarro, Cepeda – Vargas

Ecuador – statistics & current form

The Ecuadorian national football team is currently on the rise again. After “La Tricolor” failed to qualify for a single World Cup in the 20th century, the nation has only missed two of the six World Cups in the current millennium. All signs currently point to Ecuador being back again in 2026. Although the team was docked three points due to a forged birth certificate of Byron Castillo in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, they are currently in second place after 13 match days.

At last year’s Copa América, Ecuador was also only stopped in the quarter-finals by Argentina on penalties. Most recently, the Ecuadorians have really turned on the style again. They have won four and drawn two of their last six internationals, picking up 14 out of a possible 18 points. With a nine-point lead over seventh place, which would still be enough to qualify for the intercontinental play-offs, there’s not much left to burn.

Ecuador are doing well defensively

If the tip for the next point win for the Tricolor against Chile comes true, it would be another step towards the 2026 World Cup. The most recent results also support this. Ecuador have not lost any of their last three internationals against the Chilean team (two wins, one draw) and have kept a clean sheet in all three games. Defensive stability is the Ecuadorians’ greatest asset, having conceded just one goal in their last six internationals.

In fact, no other team in the CONMEBOL 2026 World Cup qualifiers has conceded fewer goals than “La Tricolor” (just five). Accordingly, the chances are good for the team, coached by Sebastián Beccacece since August 2024, who have already made the transition and were on the pitch with an average of 26.8 years young starting eleven in the recent 2-1 victory over Venezuela.

Expected line-up for Ecuador:
Galíndez – Estupinán, Pacho, Torres, Ordónez – Vite, Caicedo – Corozo, Plata, Franco – Valencia

Chile – Ecuador Head to head / H2H record

Head to head: 29 – 13 – 12

A total of 54 internationals have taken place between the two nations so far, with Chile leading the way with 29 wins. However, the Chilean team not only lost the first leg against Ecuador 1-0, but has now been waiting for three internationals against the Tricolor for another win and goal scoring success (one draw, two defeats).

Chile – Ecuador Tip

All in all, our prediction for the next point win for the in-form Ecuadorians, who have not only not lost any of their last six international matches (four wins, two draws), but have also not been beaten by Chile in three international matches (two wins, one draw). In those games, Ecuador even kept a clean sheet three times in a row, which would already be half the battle in this match in Santiago.

In fact, the Ecuadorian team has conceded just five goals in 13 qualifying matches, making it the best defense in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers. It will therefore be difficult for the Chileans to score in front of their home crowd. We therefore recommend the combined tip on the double chance X2 at under 3.5 goals.