First of eight finals: will BVB overcome the Mainz trauma?
Images are still flashing through the minds of all BVB supporters ahead of a home game against FSV Mainz 05. Images of the most painful moment in the club’s recent history on the last day of the 2022/23 season. A home win would have been enough to clinch the championship. However, the black and yellows had to settle for a 2-2 draw and then congratulate FC Bayern on winning the title. Almost two years later, Borussia has completely different problems to deal with. This is evident, among other things, from the fact that betting on a home win between Dortmund and Mainz is a risky proposition.
Strictly speaking, it must even be critically questioned whether it is justified that the Champions League quarter-finalist on Sunday evening at the end of the 27th matchday in the Bundesliga is relatively clearly hoisted into the role of favorite. According to the bookmakers’ Dortmund vs. Mainz prediction, Kovac’s team are given very good chances of winning, even though the Rhine Hessians are having the best Bundesliga season in their history.
On top of that, the Nullfünfer have not lost any of their last four encounters with the Black and Yellows and definitely have the momentum on their side. It is all the more surprising that the odds offered for Dortmund’s home win against Mainz are only 1.70 in the Interwetten app.
Dortmund vs. Mainz prediction AI
It is not only the bookmakers who are convinced that BVB will leave the field as winners in their own stadium on Sunday afternoon. The artificial intelligence is of the same opinion. “BETSiE” has calculated a 59% probability of victory in favor of Dortmund, which is reflected in a significant advantage (1.85 / 0.93) in the xG values. Without detailed consideration of the value factor, the Dortmund vs. Mainz AI prediction thus also points to a home win for the 11th-placed team in the table.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
The management at Borussia Dortmund currently have a tricky balancing act to perform. On the one hand, a certain amount of calm, confidence and belief is still needed in order to somehow be able to challenge for a top-six finish in the Bundesliga. On the other hand, preparations for the personnel changes in the summer are already in full swing. The conditions for a successful final spurt could definitely be better, especially since Dortmund still have four of the top six German clubs, Bayern, Leverkusen, Freiburg and Mainz, to play in the remaining eight match days.
For BVB, only a three-pointer counts
Internally, a victory obligation has certainly been declared for the home game against FSV, because as the current eleventh in the table, ten points behind their upcoming opponents and seven points behind sixth place, the CL quarter-finalist, who will challenge FC Barcelona the week after next, can no longer afford any slip-ups.
In my opinion, however, it wouldn’t even be a slip-up if a prediction on the double chance X2 between Dortmund and Mainz came true. Betano has a slightly different opinion on this and is offering 2.20 as the highest odds for the zero-five team to win a point at the Signal-Iduna-Park, which fully meets the conditions for the Betano Bonus.
In the first six BL games under Niko Kovač, Borussia has only managed to score six points. Four of the six matches mentioned were lost. In the calendar year 2025, the stumbling club from the Ruhr area even had seven defeats in eleven league games. Ten points from the nine matches in the second half of the season also correspond to the weakest yield in almost 20 years. And because they have only won one of their last seven Bundesliga home games, I am not a fan of putting the ridiculously low 1.70 on the home win on the betting slip.
The Dortmund vs. Mainz odds that both teams will score are much more interesting. On the one hand, because BVB has conceded at least one goal in 13 of the last 15 Bundesliga matches. On the other hand, given that the bet on “both scoring” would have been successful in nine of Borussia’s last twelve home games. A total of 47 goals were scored in 13 home games, which is an average of 3.62 per 90 minutes.
Mainz – Statistics & current form
Will FSV Mainz 05 really be representing the Bundesliga in the top flight next season? What, especially in view of the past season, actually sounds like a somewhat premature April Fool’s joke just a few days before April 1st, could actually become a reality. Currently, the Rheinhessen are in third place and have a three-point lead over the fifth-placed team. The surprise team’s momentum, lack of concern, and outstanding team chemistry, which was once again evident during the week, speaks in their favor.
How serious is the Kohr suspension for Mainz?
During a tactical discussion in the dressing room, comeback international Nadiem Amiri suddenly spoke up and congratulated the visibly surprised Bo Henriksen on being named “Denmark’s Coach of the Year”. The whole team laughed, applauded and appeared so unified that it’s not surprising at all to see the outstanding performances that the “zero-fivers” are capable of. The red and whites have won six of eleven Bundesliga games since the winter break. 45 points after 26 match days is also a new record for FSV, who have now not been beaten in six league games and have managed to score 14 out of a possible 18 points during this period.
In addition to the high-quality offense around the two national players Amiri and Burkardt, as well as youngster Nebel, the stable defense in particular deserves special mention. Only FC Bayern have conceded fewer goals than Henriksen’s side, who have, however, conceded at least one goal in seven of their last eight away games in the German top flight. Conversely, however, the attack has only remained without a goal in three of the last 17 cases.
With the game at the Signal-Iduna-Park in mind, however, there are two painful absences to cope with. Mwene and Kohr will have to watch from the sidelines. The absence of Kohr, who was sent off during the 2-2 draw against Freiburg before the international break, could be a particular problem. After all, the Rhine Hessians have only won one of the last twelve league matches without Kohr in the starting eleven. However, for those who still have a little faith in the better-placed guest but want to avoid the three-way market, Merkur Bets offers odds of 2.88 for the Dortmund v Mainz clash, provided that the strong counterattacking team from the carnival stronghold scores the first goal of the game.
Dortmund – Mainz Direct comparison / H2H record
The 2:2 on the 34th matchday of the 2022/23 season, which is still traumatic for BVB from a BVB perspective, was also the beginning of an ongoing unbeaten streak by Mainz against Dortmund. The FSV has not been defeated by the black and yellow four times in a row recently. The Rhine Hessians even deserved to win the first leg of the current season 3-1. Also interesting: only in two of the last nine encounters in the Bundesliga did neither team score at least one goal.
Dortmund – Mainz betting tip
On Sunday afternoon at 5:30 p.m., the roles will be reversed in Dortmund. The home side, who regularly play in the Champions League, are currently only in eleventh place and need a strong finish to even get a ticket to Europe. The guests, on the other hand, are in a state of pure euphoria. Amiri, Burkardt and Co. last lost a Bundesliga game at the end of January and have recently underpinned their own ambitions with great performances. Even against BVB, the Nullfünfer remained unbeaten four times in a row.
But because the black and yellows are always able to bring the full horsepower to the pitch at home, my primary betting recommendation is for a different market. In my opinion, it makes sense to place a bet on both teams scoring between Dortmund and Mainz. The odds of 1.67 at Interwetten make a stake of six units worthwhile.