Will BVB stop the Foals’ away run?

During the week, Borussia Dortmund handed FC Barcelona their first competitive defeat of the 2025 calendar year. The Black and Yellows bowed out of the Champions League with their heads held high, but they cannot rest on their laurels. With only 15 points left to play for in the Bundesliga, if Dortmund fail to win at home against Gladbach, it would be a serious setback in the battle for international places.

And it’s by no means a walk in the park for the visitors to Signal Iduna Park. Gladbach have picked up 13 of a possible 15 points from their last five Bundesliga away games and are two points ahead of their Dortmund rivals in the table. If the prediction of a point for the team from the Lower Rhine comes true in Dortmund against Gladbach, the visitors would keep BVB at bay.

The statistics clearly speak against the visitors, who have lost 17 of their last 18 away games at Signal Iduna Park (one win). Nevertheless, it must be said that BVB are more vulnerable in 2024/25 than they have been for a long time. This is particularly evident in their lack of defensive stability. The 45 goals conceded after 29 Bundesliga games have only been surpassed once before, in 2007/08. Moreover, the Westphalians have kept a clean sheet on only two of their last 18 matchdays.

Dortmund vs. Gladbach prediction AI

Supercomputer BETSiE also finds a positive expected value in the three-way system for a Dortmund home win. However, according to the AI prediction, even more value can be found in the handicap bet for Dortmund against Gladbach. The odds for the Black and Yellows to win by at least two goals are 1.96 at NEO.bet, where new customers can choose between two different bonus offers with the NEO.bet welcome bonus. This implies a probability of exactly 50 percent. The AI, on the other hand, calculates that BVB has a 54.7 percent chance of winning by two goals or more, which promises a lot of value.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Borussia Dortmund goes into this match with an impressive home record against Mönchengladbach: The last ten Bundesliga home games against the Foals have all been won. Overall, BVB has won 17 of the last 18 Bundesliga home games against Borussia from the Lower Rhine (one defeat) – only against Duisburg has the club achieved a longer home streak in the Bundesliga (twelve games).

Despite this dominance in head-to-head matches, however, Dortmund is having a mixed season. With 42 points after 29 matchdays, it has its worst record in ten years. At the same point in 2014/15, it had only 36 points. Its defensive vulnerability remains striking, with 45 goals conceded so far. In the current millennium, the figure has only been higher in 2007/08. The Black and Yellows have kept a clean sheet in only two of their last 18 Bundesliga games, which in turn fuels our tip for goals at both ends in Dortmund against Gladbach.

Dortmund looking to extend home run against Gladbach

Dortmund continues to deliver reliably in attack. Only FC Bayern has scored more goals in the second half this season than BVB (32). Maximilian Beier has also been in strong form recently, directly involved in five goals in the last three Bundesliga games (three goals, two assists). That’s a league-best tally during that period. Julian Brandt is also on the verge of his 350th Bundesliga game and, with 71 assists since his debut, is one of the best playmakers in the top flight of German soccer.

Coach Niko Kovac will demand stability in defense above all else. The poor record against teams currently in good form shows that BVB is vulnerable under pressure. Nevertheless, the team remains dangerous at home, as they proved during the week against Hansi Flick’s FC Barcelona (3-1), and with their combination of individual class and home strength, they have every chance of extending their own run against Mönchengladbach to underline their claims to a European place.

Gladbach – Statistics & current form

Borussia Mönchengladbach travels to Signal Iduna Park on the back of a decent run: Although the team has gone two games without a win (one draw, one defeat), Gerardo Seoane’s side are on 44 points, their best tally since 2019/20. Back then, they qualified for the UEFA Champions League – a goal that seems within reach again with four games to go, despite being four points adrift of fourth place. Interestingly, the Foals were last ahead of BVB in the table after 29 matchdays in 2020/21. Back then, however, BVB still managed to pick up the points they needed to finish in the top four.

The team from the Lower Rhine region has been particularly strong away from home recently. In their last five Bundesliga away games, Gladbach picked up 13 out of a possible 15 points – only Bayer Leverkusen was as successful during this period. The last time they had such a stable away run was in 2022, when they went seven games unbeaten on the road. It is therefore all the more surprising that the odds for Dortmund against Gladbach are 6.79 for a win, which we found in the Merkur Bets app.

Gladbach also has its sights set on a European spot

Defensively, Mönchengladbach remains stable despite numerous changes. With only three goals conceded from headers, the Foals are joint top of the league with Bayer Leverkusen. Offensively, their style remains varied: like BVB, Gladbach have also scored eleven headers this season, sharing the league lead with Bayern and Freiburg. However, their big weakness remains the second half: 65 percent of their goals conceded (28 out of 43) came after the break – no other Bundesliga team has a higher percentage.

Fohlen coach Gerardo Seoane also has a score to settle with Dortmund: he has won only one of his six Bundesliga matches as a coach – a spectacular 5-2 victory with Bayer Leverkusen in February 2022. With his current team, he could now achieve a historic success: Mönchengladbach has never lost eleven Bundesliga away games in a row against the same opponent. Breaking this streak would be an important signal for Seoane and his team in the final stretch of the season, where everything still seems possible with only four points separating them from a Champions League spot.

Dortmund – Gladbach Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 60 – 36 – 37

A total of 133 matches have been played between the two teams, with Borussia Dortmund leading the head-to-head record by a clear margin with 60 wins. Not only did the Westphalians remain unbeaten in the first leg at Gladbach’s Borussia-Park (1-1), but they have also won 17 of their last 18 Bundesliga home games against the team from the Lower Rhine (one defeat) – including the last ten home games in a row.

Dortmund – Gladbach Tip

In our opinion, the betting odds from the top bookmakers for Dortmund against Gladbach are leaning a little too heavily towards the Black and Yellows. The 3-1 home win against Barcelona is just as impressive as the record of ten home wins in a row against the Foals. However, the visitors from the Lower Rhine are in impressive form away from home. The Foals have picked up 13 out of a possible 15 points in their last five away games in the top flight of German soccer.

Although we generally tend to predict a home win for Dortmund against Gladbach, we don’t think the game will end goalless, especially as BVB have only kept two clean sheets in their last 18 games and have already conceded 45 goals – as many as they did in 2007/08 after 29 games.