Will the Breisgauer stay on course for Europe?

SC Freiburg have only drawn three times in a row, but have now been unbeaten in seven league games (four wins, three draws). This means that the Black Forest team is currently in sixth place in the table and is eyeing a place in a European competition. If you bet on a home win for Freiburg against Union Berlin, the team could theoretically even catch up with the current third-placed team, Mainz 05.

However, the Irons also celebrated two “big points” before the international break. The 2-1 win in Frankfurt was followed by a 1-1 draw at home against Bayern. After the recent 6-0 defeat in Dortmund, the Berliners have thus held their own against two formidable offensive lines and rediscovered their once-feared defensive compactness, which significantly influenced our prediction for the game between Freiburg and Union Berlin.

SC Freiburg have also been doing very well defensively overall. In six of the last seven league games, the Black Forest team were able to keep a clean sheet, but in two of the last three games, they have not scored a goal themselves. However, a goal for the win could now be enough against the Iron if they keep a clean sheet again at the back. This is also supported by the lack of penetration on the part of the guests, who, with only twelve goals on foreign soil, have the weakest away offense in the Bundesliga.

We would like to present the Freiburg vs. Union Berlin AI prediction at this point. However, it should be noted that, in this really quite rare case, the betting providers have set their odds so cleverly that the supercomputer BETSiE, which focuses on the bare figures, really does not locate a positive, but rather a negative expected value in all relevant betting markets.

No market in the three-way system is in the value range, because one to two percent is missing everywhere. Double chances are assessed as complete losing deals, and options such as over/under or BTS bets do not yield any value either, nor do any handicaps. For the sake of completeness, however, it should of course be noted that betting odds are constantly changing, so it is quite possible that BETSie will still find a market with value by the time the game kicks off, but this is not the case at the moment.

Freiburg – Statistics & current form

SC Freiburg have impressively stabilized during the season and are currently unbeaten in seven Bundesliga games (four wins, three draws). This means that the Breisgauers have managed a streak that was last seen in spring 2023. The club has kept six of these seven clean sheets – only against Mainz 05 last matchday (2:2) did it concede twice again. With 42 points now, the total from the entire previous season has already been equaled.

The Black Forest team is currently doing particularly well at home in the Europa-Park Stadium: 26 points from twelve home games put them in third place in the home table – only FC Bayern (34) and Leverkusen (27) are even stronger at home. In their last three home games, Julian Schuster’s team have not even conceded a goal. Another clean sheet would see the Breisgauer match a club record from the 2012/13 season.

Freiburg defend strongly and impress with set-pieces

It’s striking that despite their compactness in defense, the Sport-Club remains dangerous from set pieces. Seven goals from corners is an extremely strong figure, with Freiburg needing only 15 corners on average per goal. Only VfL Wolfsburg need fewer attempts on average (12). On the other side, however, the Irons are extremely stable when it comes to set-pieces: the Berliners have only conceded one goal from a corner, which is why we would definitely like to include our betting tip of a goalless draw in the match between Freiburg and Union Berlin.

Meanwhile, Ritsu Doan is leading the way in creativity. The Japanese player recently set a new personal best by providing his fifth assist in this Bundesliga season. In the last four home games, he has been directly involved in four goals (two goals, two assists). No other player at the club has been more effective at home in the second half of the season.

Union Berlin – Statistics & current form

Union Berlin have recovered well from a poor start to the season and travel to Freiburg having won their last three away games. Steffen Baumgart’s team have also been solid against top-flight opposition of late, remaining unbeaten (W2 D2) in their last four meetings with sides in the top six. Nevertheless, the haul of 27 points from 26 games remains the weakest Bundesliga season in the club’s history at the moment.

Historically, SC Freiburg suits the Berliners: only two of the eleven Bundesliga duels have been lost (five wins, four draws), and in the last four encounters, the capital city team has even remained completely unbeaten. The odds for the double chance X2 are therefore not uninteresting for Freiburg against Union Berlin. In the Interwetten app, a 1.80 can be tapped for this, but as already described, the AI rates this as a losing deal in view of a probability of occurrence of only 50.8 percent.

Union Berlin lacks offensive power

This is also due to the fact that the Köpenickers have remained too pale, especially away from home. Together with Freiburg, Hoffenheim and St. Pauli, they have scored twelve goals away from home, the lowest tally in the league. The Berliners thrive on efficiency and compactness: no team allows its opponents less time and space to develop. With a PPDA of 15.1, FCU is in second place in the league.

At least Benedict Hollerbach has recently provided a boost in the offensive. The striker scored his seventh goal of the Bundesliga season – more than twice as many as any other Union player. He even scored as a substitute in the recent 1-1 draw against Bayern. Perhaps a good omen, as it was only his second substitute goal in the top flight. He scored the first in May 2024 – against Freiburg, of all team.

Freiburg – Union Berlin Head to head / H2H record

Head to head: 5 – 5 – 7

A total of 17 competitive matches have taken place between the two teams so far, and in the rather even “head to head” comparison, the Irons are just ahead with seven wins. However, if you reduce the duel to the Bundesliga, Freiburg have only won twice in eleven meetings (four draws, five defeats). The Black Foresters have not beaten the Berliners in four meetings (two draws, two defeats).

Freiburg – Union Berlin betting tip

In principle, our forecast for Freiburg against Union Berlin tends towards a home win for the Black Forest team. However, there is a certain risk involved in this, as the Breisgauer have not scored in two of their last three league games and are now facing a defensive team that has only conceded one goal against the brilliant attacking lines of Frankfurt and Bayern.

In any case, the Berliners know how to defend effectively, although this has mostly been at the expense of their offense. With only twelve goals, FCU has the weakest away offense in the Bundesliga. It is therefore very likely that a maximum of two goals will be scored in this match. After all, Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in six of their last seven Bundesliga games.

We are backing this trend with five units on Freiburg vs. Union Berlin at odds of 1.74, and we are betting on Under 2.5 goals. A big plus point of this bookmaker is that no betting tax is incurred here.