Will BVB continue their chase in Breisgau?

The highlight game against FC Barcelona is already casting its shadow over Borussia Dortmund. However, due to the table situation, the black and yellow cannot afford to have their minds already on the Champions League. On a national level, coach Niko Kovač’s team is dependent on every point. This also applies to Saturday afternoon against their favorite opponents from Freiburg. In recent years, betting on BVB has paid off with impressive regularity between Freiburg and Dortmund. Borussia has now won six times in a row against the sports club from the south of the republic.

In view of the situation before the clash on matchday 28 of the Bundesliga, however, another prediction between Freiburg and Dortmund is associated with a great deal of risk. After all, BVB are one of the weakest home teams in the current Bundesliga season. In addition, the tenth-placed team in the duel with the seventh-placed team will have to do without the new corner king Nico Schlotterbeck, who is suspended due to a yellow card.

It is all the more surprising that lower odds are being offered on the away win before the Freiburg v Dortmund kick-off. Interwetten is only offering 2.25 for the away win of the black and yellow, who have only managed to win three away games in the 2024/25 Bundesliga season. However, the latest impressions from the second half in Leipzig and from the home win against Mainz give BVB fans hope for the next step towards the European Cup. Those who share this opinion can combine the win bet on the Ruhrpottler with the Interwetten bonus.

Freiburg vs. Dortmund prediction AI

However, the BVB victory probability calculated by the AI is below the probability implied by the betting odds, so there is no value. Instead, according to “BETSiE”, an underbet may be considered, especially since the summed xG value does not exceed the 2.5 goal mark and a handsome 2.05 is still offered in the Interwetten app for a corresponding Freiburg vs. Dortmund AI forecast on Under 2.5 goals.

Freiburg – Statistics & current form

With a win last week, SC Freiburg could have drawn level on points with FSV Mainz 05, who continue to occupy one of the coveted Champions League spots in fourth place. However, despite taking a 1-0 lead, they suffered a completely unexpected 2-1 defeat at home to Union Berlin, which even caused the Sport-Club to drop back to seventh place. Nevertheless, the Breisgauer still have their sights set firmly on international business and, just six days after the slip-up, they will have another opportunity to get back on the road to success at home.

Freiburg will strike back at home

The fact that at first glance the odds for a home win look too high for Freiburg against Dortmund can be explained by the fact that coach Julian Schuster’s team can actually be described as strong at home. They have won eight of their 13 Bundesliga home games this season (two draws, three defeats). On average, only Bayern and Leverkusen have won more points at home than the Black Foresters, who, however, have recently gone without a win in front of their own fans twice in a row for the first time under their new coach.

Incidentally, the Breisgauer have not scored in four league games. If you think this dry spell will end on Saturday afternoon, you can find odds of 3.20 for a home win between Freiburg and Dortmund at Winamax.

An alternative approach would be to speculate on a game with few goals. In seven of the last nine SCF league matches, a maximum of three goals were scored. At home, Schuster’s team even kept a clean sheet in three of the last four matches. However, all clean sheets were thanks to U21 national team goalkeeper Noah Atubolu, who is out of action due to injury and will be replaced by Florian Müller. A loss that definitely hurts and must be taken into account in the final Freiburg vs. Dortmund prediction.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Some hope has been rekindled among Borussia Dortmund supporters after last weekend. On the one hand, because the black and yellows made a really good impression and deserved to win the 3-1 home victory against the Champions League contender from Mainz. On the other hand, because of the slightly more positive situation in the table. The gap to the top four has shrunk to seven points, and the Europa/Conference League is already in sight.

Dortmund is and remains one of the weakest away teams in the Bundesliga

Nevertheless, I am not a big fan of including the odds on the away win in the betting slip between Freiburg and Dortmund. The performances in front of an away crowd in the previous season were simply too weak for that. In the away table, BVB are ranked third from last. A mere eleven points were earned from 13 matches in opposing stadiums. Three wins are offset by two draws and eight defeats. In the past 17 Bundesliga years, the CL finalist from the previous season has never had a worse away record.

To make matters worse, Nico Schlotterbeck, probably the most important defensive player, will be missing this weekend due to a suspension. It is still unclear whether Serhou Guirassy will be able to play again after his muscular problems or whether he will even be rested for the first leg of the quarter-final in the Champions League against FC Barcelona. It is quite possible that Maxi Beier will once again have to carry the bulk of the offensive load. Last week, the national player scored twice for BVB for the first time.

Finally, it is worth mentioning that Niko Kovač does not particularly like competing against the sports club as a Bundesliga coach. In his previous nine meetings with three different clubs, the former professional has a disappointing 1-4-4 record. Only against FC Bayern does Kovac, who continues to be viewed rather critically by many in the BVB scene, have an even worse win rate than against SC Freiburg.

Freiburg – Dortmund Direct comparison / H2H record

As mentioned in the introduction, SC Freiburg can confidently be described as Borussia Dortmund’s favorite opponent. At least with regard to the last few years. The last six Bundesliga duels were all won by the black and yellow. Also interesting: in all six of these successes, BVB scored at least three goals. The first leg was also a clear victory for the black and yellow, who came out on top 4-0 at home after a truly outstanding performance. The goal difference after the last four meetings is 16:3 in favor of Borussia.

Freiburg – Dortmund Tip

A few days before the CL highlight against FC Barcelona and a week before the Bundesliga classic against Bayern, for which you can win 2×2 Watch Party tickets at Bwin, BVB is traveling to the Breisgau. The black and yellows want to continue their comeback against their favorite opponent from the last three Bundesliga seasons and land their second consecutive win. However, with only three wins in 13 away games so far, a win against the home-strong Black Forest team is not particularly likely. Therefore, my tendency is more towards a draw.

At least one goal can definitely be expected from the guests. In the end, my primary Freiburg vs. Dortmund tip is on the X2 & Under 3.5.