Will the ‘Kiezkicker’ continue their three-goal streak against Holstein?
In the promotion duel, the weakest defense on the side of Holstein and the most harmless offense on the side of the guests from Hamburg face each other! Which Kiel vs. St. Pauli tip is best? The home side cannot count on a home bonus: the footballers from the Baltic Sea have not scored in their last five league games at home and the majority (3) have been lost.
In addition, the weakest defense in the league solidified its status with no fewer than twelve goals conceded within this review. In the clash between Kiel and St. Pauli, the prediction also aims for a win by the guests (DNB).
Kiel vs. St. Pauli prediction AI
BETSiE puts the probability of this outcome at 36.4 percent, higher than Kiel’s win rate of 3.00 at Bet365, which corresponds to a probability of 33.3 percent. In view of this, the Kiel vs St. Pauli KI forecast includes a home win.
Kiel – Statistics & current form
The northerners are quite strong in offense, surpassing their expected goals value by seven goals – only three teams in the German top flight top this difference. In contrast, the guests undercut their expected goals value by a whopping 7.8 goals – the weakest value in the ranking.
However, as mentioned at the beginning, Holstein’s defense has plenty of room for improvement. This applies in particular to the first half of the game: the hosts have already conceded 39 goals before half-time – again the highest number in the league.
Next goal for Kiel before half-time?
Given that the “Störche” defense is finding it difficult to get into the games, the odds of the guests scoring before half-time are also recommended for the Kiel-St. Pauli clash.
Just how weak the defense of coach Marcel Rapp, whose contract was recently extended until 2028, is can also be seen from the fact that the Bundesliga 2 runners-up have only managed two clean sheets in the season – the lowest number!
Furthermore, the home side have already conceded the first goal in the game 21 times, once again sharing a negative record in the German top flight with Bochum. Another consequence of the often early goals conceded is that eight of Kiel’s nine home defeats have been accompanied by a goal behind at half-time!
Skrzybski is to fix it in Holstein’s attack
In their own offense, the hopes are again mainly on Steven Skrzybski. The 32-year-old veteran missed a large part of the season due to injury, but since the end of January this year, he has been available again with a short interruption. Here Skrzybski proved that he has not lost his scoring touch.
The attacker has scored at least once in half of the eight league games since his comeback! However, the home side are facing a weakened lineup. Due to a card suspension, the absence of David Zec, a particularly important midfielder, is felt. He has made the most passes for the hosts in 2025 and also has the best pass completion rate (88 percent).
St. Pauli – Statistics & current form
The North Germans have a persistent offensive problem this season. No other team in the Bundesliga scores less than St. Pauli and in the shot conversion ranking, the Millerntor kickers are in second-last place with 10.6 percent. It is of course fitting from the visitors’ point of view that they are now facing the weakest defense in the Bundesliga.
On the other hand, Hamburg’s away record leaves room for improvement. The reigning champions of the German second division have not scored in their last four away league games. However, the away game schedule has also been very difficult during this period. Among other things, St. Pauli went to Munich to face the league leaders or to RB Leipzig and Mainz and thus against other teams from the top third of the table.
St. Pauli travel with a top defense
Coach Alexander Blessin can at least be satisfied with his team’s defensive performance. Only Mainz and Bayern Munich concede fewer goals than the footballers from the Heiligengeistfeld.
In view of this, the betting odds on less than one goal by the home side are worth considering when Kiel and St. Pauli go head to head, and you can use them at Betano.
One shortcoming of the guests, however, is that the “Kiezkicker” apparently have deficits in terms of their own willingness to fight. St. Pauli has conceded the first goal 17 times this season and only one of these games has not ended with the respective opponent scoring three. No other Bundesliga club has such a high 94 percent defeat rate!
Kiel – St. Pauli direct comparison / H2H record
St. Pauli won the last direct duel in November of the previous year with 3:1 and this is not a new pattern in this pairing: the German champions from 1912 have not won against the Hamburgers since five duels and the club from the Millerntor Stadium has always won in four comparisons.
However, the odds for the next encounter between Kiel and St. Pauli do not show a favorite due to evenly matched form. On top of that, there has been no shortage of goals in this rivalry recently: no fewer than six goals on average have been scored in the last four meetings!
Kiel – St. Pauli betting tip
Admittedly, two similarly weak teams face each other in the cellar duel on the waterfront. Nevertheless, our betting tip for the duel between the two promoted teams Kiel and St. Pauli includes the guests winning – but hedging against a draw. Although Hamburg’s results have hardly been better than the home side’s recently, in our opinion this was due to Hamburg’s more difficult schedule.
In addition, the Bundesliga’s already weakest defense has recently deteriorated again. The home side have conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last five league home games. The St. Pauli offense, on the other hand, has been the least prolific, so they should face less resistance than usual this time. The Kiel vs. St. Pauli prediction is backed up by the statistics: Hamburg have won four straight games and have always scored three or more goals!