Will the in-form Giallorossi take the derby?

The 185th Derby della Capitale is about much more than just prestige. The winner of this game claims a starting place for the Europa League and also stays close to the Champions League places, while the loser is guaranteed to slip out of the top six. In view of the current form of both teams, our Lazio vs. AS Roma betting tip tends towards the Giallorossi, who are the only Serie A team to have remained completely unbeaten in league play in 2025.

A total of 15 Serie A games without defeat are now on the books of the Wolves (eleven wins, four draws), who now face a crisis-ridden city rival who not only has not won any of their last four league games (two draws, one defeat), but also suffered a bitter 2-0 defeat at Bodö/Glimt in the Europa League quarter-finals during the week. So there is not much to suggest that the forecast of a Biancocelesti victory at Lazio will come true.

The Giallorossi’s long unbeaten streak is primarily due to their newly acquired defensive stability. The Wolves have conceded just eight goals in their last 15 league games and already beat Lazio 2-0 in the first leg of this tie. However, considering that the Aquile have kept a clean sheet in four of the last six derbies against AS Roma, results such as 0-0 or even a narrow clean-sheet victory for the Biancocelesti cannot be categorically ruled out either.

Lazio – Statistics & current form

Under the new coach Marco Baroni, who was appointed last summer, Lazio initially got off to a mixed start, but then quickly established themselves in the top flight. Between matchdays 10 and 28, the Aquile (in English: the eagles) were always in the top five without exception and even held a Champions League spot for several weeks.

However, after only one of four Serie A games has been won recently (two draws and one defeat), and after a heavy 5-0 defeat at the hands of direct rivals Bologna, the Biancocelesti have now slipped to sixth place. If the tip that Lazio will lose against AS Rome comes true, they could even fall to seventh place. After all, their city rivals are currently their closest pursuers, although a draw would keep them at bay.

Lazio must stop the downward trend soon.

Nevertheless, the fact that Baroni’s team is in danger of squandering all their good assets in the hot phase of the 2024/25 season is problematic. In addition to the slump in performance in the Serie A, the first leg of the Europa League quarter-final against FK Bodö/Glimt was finally lost 2-0 in snowy weather on Thursday evening. So next Thursday at the Stadio Olimpico, the Aquile need a win by at least two goals just to force extra time against the Norwegians.

The fact that the exhausting Derby della Capitale is coming up before this game does not make the situation any easier, although Marco Baroni is benefiting from the fact that the number of players out with injuries has significantly decreased and only Arsenal loanee Nuno Taveres is out of the starting eleven. In principle, the Biancocelesti could well have their home strength played against them. Of 15 Serie A home games in 2024/25, just two games were lost – only Inter Milan, Bologna and Juventus (one home defeat each) have a better record in this regard.

AS Roma – Statistics & current form

AS Roma have taken a completely different path, which is also due to the personnel decisions made in the first half of the season. Daniele De Rossi was let go early on and the subsequent era under Ivan Juric turned out to be a misunderstanding not only for the World Cup winner Mats Hummels, who was demoted to a bench-warmer, but for the whole club, which suddenly found itself in the bottom third of the table.

But then, in November, came former champion Claudio Ranieri, who brought success back to the Eternal City. It wasn’t without its teething troubles, but in 2025, “La Lupa” (the she-wolf in Latin) is the only team in Serie A that has yet to lose a league game. They have now gone 15 games without a defeat (11 wins, four draws). With 37 out of a possible 45 points, the Wolves have even climbed to seventh place and are only two points behind sixth place, held by city rivals Lazio, of all teams.

AS Roma are no longer letting much slip in defense

Now it’s up to the Giallorossi to move past the Laziali with another derby win – they have already won the first leg 2-0 – and not only to extend their unbeaten streak after the recent 1-1 draw against Juventus, but also to move into the top six. The odds for the Wolves’ three points, which are estimated at 2.65 at ODDSET, are not uninteresting in the game between Lazio and AS Roma. This could well be worth a small side bet with a small stake. Or with the current ODDSET bonus, which offers a 100% bonus up to €100 as well as a corresponding €10 free bet, which is perfect for such risky but promising bets.

In addition to their current form, the newly gained defensive stability also speaks in favor of the Ranieri team. Thanks in part to the soon-to-be-retired Mats Hummels, the Wolves’ defense has stabilized. In the past 15 Serie A games, there have been just eight goals conceded in total and only once has more than one goal been conceded per league game – in the 2-2 draw in Bologna, which dates back to the beginning of January. So, they are in a good position to plunge the crisis-stricken Aquile even deeper into crisis in the Derby della Capitale…

Lazio Rom – AS Rom Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 51 – 64 – 69

The Derby della Capitale has taken place 184 times so far, with AS Roma leading the way with 69 wins. After the Giallorossi were unable to win in four consecutive city derbies, they have won the last two meetings with Lazio Roma, both by a clean sheet. In none of the last six duels between the two teams were there more than two goals (only six goals in total).

Lazio – AS Roma Tip

In view of the current form curve, our forecast for Lazio Roma vs. AS Roma clearly leans towards the Giallorossi, who also won the first leg 2-0. However, a derby is always a tricky affair. The Biancocelesti also know what is at stake. In the event of a derby defeat, the European starting place would be over. The Laziali will certainly not make it easy for their in-form city rivals. Therefore, caution is advised, especially with the three-way system.

It is striking that in the last six city derbies between the two teams, a maximum of two goals have always been scored. Accordingly, there is plenty of value to be found in the under bet again, especially since the Giallorossi have only conceded eight goals in their last 15 Serie A games, none of which they have lost (eleven wins, four draws).