The battle for supremacy in German football, part 1
Emotions, controversy, drama and high tension. These are all ingredients for a great evening of football. We are in for just such an evening on Wednesday, when the two best German teams by far will face each other in the first knockout round of the UEFA Champions League. This is about more than just getting into the quarterfinals. It’s about prestige, honor, glory, and supremacy in national football. It is all the more complicated to make a suitable prediction between Bayern and Leverkusen.
On the one hand, Munich throws its tireless experience at the international level into the ring, along with home advantage. Leverkusen, on the other hand, scores with a strong record against FCB and the still present impressions from the most recent encounter a few weeks ago. At home, the Alonso team dominated the record champions at will, but still had to settle for a goalless draw due to a glut of chances. For the upcoming match between Bayern and Leverkusen, a prediction of a rather low-scoring game also has more argumentative substance than the prediction of an offensive spectacle.
In view of the media coverage and the fact that the Rhinelanders have virtually outranked the industry leader from the Isar in the last year and a half, it is surprising that the German bookmakers see the current Bundesliga leaders as relatively clearly in the lead.
At least the odds for Bayern against Leverkusen from the first leg suggest that. At the top, only 1.82 is offered for the home win. Meanwhile, Bet365 offers 4.50 as the top odds for a Bayer triumph in the Allianz Arena. Bet365 has been a global partner of the premier league since this season and therefore always comes up with special offers. Currently, the typical Bet365 welcome bonus of up to 100 euros is available on your first deposit!
Bayern vs. Leverkusen Forecast AI
Before the round of 16 between Bayern and Leverkusen, the AI forecast clearly indicates that Munich will advance. According to “BETSiE”, the FCB has a 60.6% chance of advancing to the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League. For the first leg, the artificial intelligence has calculated xG values of 1.84 to 1.19, which adds up to 3.03 xG. The AI is therefore expecting a goal-filled encounter and recommends a bet on the Asian Over 3 goals, in which in the event of exactly three goals in the game at Bet365 the stake would be refunded.
Bayern – Statistics & current form
After finishing third in the Bundesliga in 2023/24, Bayern Munich’s top priority from the start of this season was to restore the balance of power at the national level. As things stand, they have done a brilliant job of that, with the record champions currently eight points ahead of Bayer 04 Leverkusen and on course to reclaim the title.
Although the Bundesliga is traditionally referred to by those in charge as the “bread and butter” business on the Isar, in 2024/25 there is, of course, another goal that is at the top of the list for all decision-makers, fans and players: the “Finale Dahoam 2.0”. Just as 13 years ago, when the CL final in their own stadium was lost in the most bitter way after a penalty shoot-out against Chelsea FC, the men from the Säbener Straße have made it their mission to once again do everything they can to reach the final.
However, the road ahead is rocky, because even before Bayern’s round of 16 match against Leverkusen, the odds underline how difficult the task against the (still) reigning double winners will be. However, if you believe the Champions League AI simulation, then FCB will reach the next round and would then face Feyenoord Rotterdam or Inter Milan.
Are Bayern only favored because of their CL history?
In any case, Bayern’s impressive last-16 statistics from the past speak in their favor on Wednesday evening. The Munich team has won nine of the last 11 CL home games in the last 16 round (9-1-1). They scored a total of 41 goals in the process. However, recent results are far more relevant, and thanks to the victories against Eintracht Frankfurt (4-0) and at VfB Stuttgart (3-1), these are also very positive.
However, it must be said that Stuttgart, in particular, repeatedly and relentlessly exposed the defensive weaknesses that still exist in Kompany’s team, and in many situations they only failed to score because of their own inability to convert chances. Some remaining doubts are also justified by their performance against Celtic Glasgow. Against the Scottish underdog, it took a last-minute goal from Alphonso Davies in their own stadium to avoid extra time.
In my opinion, the record champions are not currently instilling fear, which is why I am not in favor of predicting a home win between Bayern and Leverkusen. The top odds of 1.82 at Winamax are too low, and even with the Winamax bonus, they would not end up on my betting slip.
There are also question marks over personnel. Will Upamecano return to the back four for Dier? Who will get the nod on the attacking flanks? The fitness of Joshua Kimmich, who was recently out with an injury but has been primarily involved in contract negotiations, but still plays a very important role in central midfield, will also be crucial to the outcome.
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
Xabi Alonso has instilled fear in Bayern in recent encounters. The Spanish former professional has lined up against his former club six times and is still unbeaten. The Werkself have won three and drawn three of their last six meetings. If you want to bet on the Rhinelanders not losing the first leg of the Champions League last sixteen at the Allianz Arena, you can get odds of 2.05 on Bayern v Leverkusen.
Leverkusen have only lost three competitive games this season
The current Bundesliga runners-up are certainly going into the game in the south of the country with plenty of confidence and momentum. On Saturday, for example, Bayer celebrated a brilliant 4-1 away win against Eintracht Frankfurt. It was the 29th Bundesliga away game in a row that the Werkself has not lost. If you add various cup appearances away from home, it is well over 30 matches in opposing stadiums that the double winner has not lost against German clubs.
In the league phase of the UEFA Champions League, Xabi Alonso’s charges also made a far more stable impression than Bayern. In five of eight Champions League games, the Werkself kept a clean sheet. They only suffered defeats at Anfield against Liverpool and at Atletico Madrid. In both cases, however, the defeats were primarily due to a slump in performance in the second half.
In fact, the Rhinelanders have only been behind at half-time in two competitive matches across all competitions, so the question of whether there will be a goal after 45 minutes is also worth considering. Leverkusen will definitely not take too many risks in the first half in Munich. The longer it stays 0-0, the more it should play into the hands of the Bundesliga runners-up.
As a result, the odds for a low-scoring game are also of interest. For example, I don’t think there will be more than three goals in the game. The respect on both sides is too great for that. The Under 2.5 is also quoted in the Betway app as being full of value, especially since Alonso – as so often in recent games against FCB – could do without a clear nine. Tella or Adli are more likely to be considered as fast strikers to counter the Bavarian speed deficit than Patrik Schick or Victor Boniface.
Bayern – Leverkusen direct comparison / H2H record
This is the first time the clubs have faced each other on the international stage. The last time two German clubs met in the Champions League was in the 2013 final, when Bayern beat BVB. However, Munich have not won any of the last six meetings with Bayer 04 Leverkusen (0-3-3). In three of the last four meetings, the record champions have not even scored a goal.
In mid-February, there was a goalless draw in the BayArena, with the Rhinelanders clearly superior and definitely deserving of a win due to the abundance of scoring chances. There was also no winner in the first leg in Munich. But there was in the DFB Cup at the beginning of December. The Alonso team was lucky to win 1-0 with ten men.
Bayern – Leverkusen Tip
From a German perspective, the clash between Bayern and Leverkusen in the CL round of 16 is of course the big game. Since the draw was made, fans have been eagerly awaiting this match. I expect the two best Bundesliga teams to be on an equal footing and I can well imagine that nuances will decide who advances and who is eliminated.
I also expect few goals in the first leg on Wednesday evening, as the teams are desperate to avoid making mistakes and falling behind. However, I would actually give the Werkself a slight advantage, as they currently make a better impression on me. In addition, there have been three wins and three draws in six duels under Xabi Alonso. In three of the last four matches, Bayer even kept a clean sheet against Bayern.
In addition to the appealing odds for the double chance X2, I recommend betting on the fact that it will be a draw at half-time between Bayern and Leverkusen. Feeling each other out and neutralizing will be the order of the first 45 minutes. In addition, two of the three duels this season have also ended in a draw. The Rhinelanders have only been behind at half-time twice in all competitive matches.