Will Munich finish the job in the Rhineland?

After the more than clear first leg, the German round of 16 is likely to be over already. In any case, there is little doubt that Leverkusen’s tip for the 35th time that the German record champions have reached the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League will come true against Bayern. However, FCB has already lost twice in the 2024/25 season in the premier class away from home by three goals – 1:4 in Barcelona and 0:3 in Rotterdam. So if the Werkself manages to score an early goal, the game could perhaps take on a certain momentum again.

The strategy for the usually very dominant record champions should therefore be similar to their most recent Bundesliga appearance in the Rhineland, when very defensive Munich only managed a 0-0 draw just a month ago. Accordingly, the forecast for Leverkusen against Bayern is that it will not be too goal-scoring in the second leg.

It cannot be denied that Bayer 04 Leverkusen has a certain home strength in the premier class. The Rhinelanders won their last four Champions League home games and kept a clean sheet in each of them. In the knockout rounds, however, the record of the reigning double winner is much more sobering. The black and reds have only won one of their last 14 knockout games in the premier competition (three draws, ten defeats).

Leverkusen vs. Bayern forecast AI

The supercomputer BETSiE also finds the three-way system in this second leg too tricky. The AI does not find a positive expected value in any of the three options and instead also chooses an approach based on goals. In the case of Leverkusen against Bayern, the AI forecast tends to predict goals for both sides. BETSiE calculates an expected goals value of 1.4 for the Rhinelanders and 1.5 for the Munich team. Although BETSiE does not expect a complete goal festival, at least goals on both sides appear to be very likely according to the AI’s assessment.

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

Bayer 04 Leverkusen face an enormous challenge. After the clear 3-0 defeat in the first leg, Xabi Alonso’s team needs a small football miracle to reach the Champions League quarter-finals. In the history of the competition, only four teams have managed to advance after losing by three or more goals in the first leg.

Despite the difficult situation, there are positive aspects. The black and reds have won their last four Champions League home games and have not conceded a single goal in their last five home games in this competition. In fact, the reigning German champions are particularly strong at home in Europe under Alonso. They have not lost in European competitions in 13 home games (ten wins, three draws), which is why the tip for the second leg in Leverkusen is a home win for the Rhinelanders.

Can Leverkusen stay creative without Florian Wirtz?

Florian Wirtz has already created 25 chances from open play this Champions League season – more than any other player in the competition except Vinícius Júnior in the 2021/22 season (31). However, the Werkself not only lost their league game against Werder Bremen at the weekend 0-2, but also their playmaker. The German international had to leave the pitch on crutches. Although the diagnosis had not yet been announced at the time of going to press, Bayer 04 will almost certainly have to do without one of their most important creative players in their offensive play.

On the other hand, the black and reds have already beaten Munich in the DFB Cup, which is a ray of hope. In the three home games against the record champions so far, Leverkusen have remained completely unbeaten under Xabi Alonso (two wins, one draw). Before his time in office, they only managed a single victory in eight home games against Bayern. Nevertheless, an extraordinary performance would be required to reach the quarter-finals.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

Bayern’s 3-0 first-leg win has put them in an excellent position ahead of the second leg in Leverkusen. For the first time since the 2020/21 season, the Reds could now win several competitive matches against Bayer Leverkusen in one season. Back then, both Bundesliga games were won under Hansi Flick.

If they make it through, the Bavarians will reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the 35th time in their history. Only Real Madrid (39) have made it to the last eight more often. However, the German record champions have recently shown themselves to be vulnerable away from home. In their last eight Champions League away games, they have suffered five defeats – the same number as in their previous 36 away games combined. Particularly bitter: two of these defeats were clear-cut losses with a goal difference of three (1:4 in Barcelona and 0:3 at Feyenoord), which is why it is quite surprising that the odds of the best bookmakers for Bayern against Leverkusen consider an FCB away win to be the most likely.

Bayern are particularly convincing in offense

With 26 goals scored, the Kompany team has the third-best offense in this year’s Champions League season. Only Barcelona (29) and Real Madrid (28) have scored more. Harry Kane has played a big part in this. The Brit has already scored nine goals in his ten appearances – more than ever before in a single Champions League season. Should he score another goal in the BayArena, he would be the first English player to score double digits in a Champions League season.

Jamal Musiala could play a key role in this. Together with Leverkusen’s Florian Wirtz, who is out injured, he is the player who has created the most goal-scoring opportunities under intense pressure (19). Nevertheless, FCB are not going into this second leg with unconditional self-confidence after their 3-2 home defeat to VfL Bochum in the dress rehearsal at the weekend. At least, because Vincent Kompany rotated ten positions, he can probably call on a very fresh first eleven in the Rhineland on Tuesday evening.

Leverkusen – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 22 – 21 – 60

A total of 103 meetings have taken place between the two teams so far and with 60 wins, FC Bayern Munich leads the direct comparison very clearly. Although Bayer Leverkusen has not been completely defeated by the German record champions in three home games under Xabi Alonso (two wins, one draw), in the twelve home games before that, the Rhinelanders had to admit defeat to the Reds six times (two wins, four draws).

Leverkusen – Bayern betting tip

Although the German record champions have recently been vulnerable on international terrain, especially away from home, and have also struggled against the Werkself since Xabi Alonso took office, our prediction for Leverkusen against Bayern is that Munich will progress. Not only do the Rhinelanders have to do without Florian Wirtz, but Nordi Mukiele is also unavailable after his sending off in the first leg, which could well result in a lack of firepower in attack.

The Reds also showed that they have high defensive qualities in the 0-0 Bundesliga game in the BayArena. Accordingly, betting on Vincent Kompany, who rested his defensive duo Upamecano and Kim at the weekend, setting his team up tactically in a similar way to this game to make it through to the quarter-finals, is an interesting prospect.

We find the biggest value in the tip that a maximum of one goal will be scored in the first half. For this, Leverkusen against Bayern betting odds of 1.53 are available, which we play with six units at Interwetten.