How will the Werkself react to the cup elimination?

Bayer 04 Leverkusen has not only been eliminated from the Champions League with great clarity and is six points behind in the race for the German championship. But the Werkself has now also squandered its great chance of defending the title in the DFB Cup. What seemed like a bad April Fool’s joke given the date was the stark reality on Tuesday evening: the black and reds lost 2-1 away to third-division side Arminia Bielefeld in the semi-final. In this analysis, we answer the question of whether this embarrassment also affects our Heidenheim v Leverkusen betting tip.

Basically, the many recent failures – the reigning double winner has lost four of his last six competitive games (two wins) – also show how dependent the Rhinelanders are on Florian Wirtz, who will also miss the game at the Ostalb. Although the Werkself have not lost any of their last 30 Bundesliga away games (22 wins, eight draws), the Alonso team’s forecast of an away win against Leverkusen is not a sure thing.

However, two figures confirm the favorite role with which the reigning double winner comes to the Voith Arena in Heidenheim. Firstly, Bayer Leverkusen have won all three Bundesliga games against FCH to date. And secondly, the weakest home team in the top flight of German football is hosting the best away team. The team from Brenzstadt have only managed to pick up ten points at home and have lost four of their five home games in the second half of the season (one win).

Heidenheim vs. Leverkusen prediction AI

Perhaps in view of the embarrassing performance of the Rhinelanders in the DFB Cup, supercomputer BETSiE goes even further than us, because in Heidenheim against Leverkusen, the AI prognosis is for the double chance 1X. In the handy Betano app, a 2.85 is offered for FCH scoring against the Werkself, suggesting a probability of 35 percent.

On the other hand, BETSiE even calculates that 1. FC Heidenheim has a 41 percent chance of getting at least a draw against the down-and-outers from Leverkusen, which puts us a whopping six percent in the value range. By the way, if you haven’t registered with Betano yet, you can get a 100% bonus up to €80 as well as an exclusive €20 freebet with the current Betano bonus, which can also be used to mitigate the high risk that this value tip still entails.

Heidenheim – Statistics & current form

After a long dry spell, 1. FC Heidenheim are currently back on a roll. The red-and-blues won their last two Bundesliga games – more than they had in the previous 23 matches combined. For the first time this season, the team from Brenzstadt also remained unbeaten three times in a row. The 3-1 win over Holstein Kiel was also an important breakthrough at home, making up for the four previous home defeats.

Particularly pleasing: Marvin Pieringer has established himself as a reliable goal scorer. The attacker scored once in each of the last two games and now has seven goals for the season – more than twice as many as last season. Now, Heidenheim will be hoping to continue their good form against a top-tier team like Bayer 04 Leverkusen and emulate Bielefeld. However, Winamax is offering odds of 7.00 for tip 1 in the Heidenheim v Leverkusen game, which underlines the Swabians’ role as rank outsiders.

Can Heidenheim improve their poor home record?

Despite the recent victory over Kiel, the home record of the Red-Blacks remains problematic: Ten points from 13 home games continue to be the worst of all Bundesliga teams. Just one more home win would equal the club’s record for two consecutive home wins. The team’s defensive stability and fighting spirit, which has increasingly stabilized in the second half of the season, is encouraging.

Tactically, however, Heidenheim still faces a Herculean task. In terms of passing, possession and structure, the club from the Ostalb region will face the second-placed team, which is extremely strong in combination play. Especially against the joy of playing and pressing resistance of Bayer 04 Leverkusen, the hosts will have to play extremely compactly and efficiently to avoid being crushed again, as in the previous three Bundesliga duels.

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

Bayer 04 Leverkusen, with 59 points after 27 games, is not quite at the level of the legendary 2023/24 season (73). Nevertheless, the Werkself under Xabi Alonso continues to play consistently at the highest level and is still in the race, although the mass could be read if Heidenheim does not get the chance of an away win against Leverkusen.

But at least the away series speaks in favor of this: Leverkusen has not been beaten in away games for 30 Bundesliga games – a mark that only FC Bayern has surpassed between 2012 and 2014. With 29 points away from home, the Werkself is the best away team in the league, while now they face the weakest home team. Nevertheless, the Rhinelanders were unable to call on that same away strength on Tuesday against third-division side Arminia Bielefeld.

Will Leverkusen get the right answer?

It is now all the more important for the Werkself to give a strong answer and to bring their usual dominance on the pitch. With an average of 595 passes per game and a pass completion rate of 87 percent, Bayer 04 is second in the league in both categories, behind Bayern. Against FCH, who are among the least accurate and most imprecise teams in the league, the black and reds are likely to have a lot of possession.

Individually, players like Aleix Garcia and Exequiel Palacios stand out. Garcia has scored four goals in his last seven league appearances and provided the most shot assists for Leverkusen during this period. Palacios, on the other hand, recently set up two goals against Bochum. He also scored against Heidenheim in the first half of the season. His next goal would also be his 200th Bundesliga goal under coach Xabi Alonso – a milestone that only Pep Guardiola has reached faster in this millennium.

Heidenheim – Leverkusen direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 1 – 0 – 3

In February 2019, 1. FC Heidenheim eliminated the Werkself once with 2-1 at home from the DFB Cup. Since then, both teams have only met three times in the Bundesliga. The outcome was always the same: Bayer 04 Leverkusen collected the full three points against the Brenzstadt team, who also lost 5-2 in the first leg at the BayArena.

Heidenheim – Leverkusen Tip

In view of the home weakness of the Brenzstädter, our forecast for Heidenheim against Leverkusen is already tending towards the guests. However, the cup elimination is food for thought. A reaction of defiance seems just as possible as the next bloodless performance in the absence of the injured Florian Wirtz, who is really sorely missed by the Rhinelanders these days.

The odds for a handicap tip are very interesting for Heidenheim against Leverkusen. A +2 on the Brenzstädter covers a variety of possibilities. From the Swabians winning a point to the Werkself’s away win with a maximum of one goal difference.

We play the handicap of +2 at FCH at NEO.bet with five out of ten units. The bookmaker offers odds of 1.66 for this tip with Heidenheim against Leverkusen and is particularly suitable for those who like to place their bets with Apple Pay.