Is BVB saying goodbye to the premier class for years to come?

Actually, anticipation of special Champions League evenings should always be at the forefront for professionals and fans alike. While OSC Lille is certainly looking forward to the historic opportunity to reach the quarter-finals of Europe’s premier club competition for the first time in the club’s history, BVB is overcome by an uneasy feeling and, at times, even fear of the next bitter setback. The fundamentally different moods must be taken into account when considering the Lille vs. Dortmund tip for Wednesday evening.

At least there is no lack of excitement ahead of the upcoming second leg. After the 1-1 draw in the first leg a week ago, the French team now have home advantage, but the bookmakers with a German license still see the Bundesliga side as at least on an equal footing, maybe even slightly ahead. In principle, it is very difficult to predict which team between Lille and Dortmund would be most likely to meet FC Barcelona in the quarter-finals, but it is very complicated.

However, BVB fans should be encouraged by the fact that the last two away games in the knockout phase of the UEFA Champions League were also won. In the semi-final 23/24 in Paris and a few weeks ago with 3:0 in the playoffs at Sporting Lisbon. In general, the advantage in experience can be found in the team of coach Niko Kovac, whose young tenure would have to be marked with another noticeable flaw in the event of an early elimination.

Lille vs. Dortmund forecast AI

The Lille vs. Dortmund AI prediction also highlights how close the game at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy promises to be. This in turn corresponds to a probability of victory for Borussia of just under 40%. Comparing this with the probabilities resulting from the betting odds of the bookmakers, value can be assumed for the away win of Kovac’s team. So the AI believes in BVB and in making it to the quarter-finals.

Lille – statistics & current form

On paper, OSC Lille, in fifth place in the French Ligue 1, doesn’t look particularly intimidating. However, if you look at the league phase, “Les Dogues” were undoubtedly one of the most positive surprises in the premier league. Coach Bruno Génésio’s team defeated Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, scored against Juventus and only just lost to Liverpool FC. Seventh place with 16 out of a possible 24 points and the direct ticket to the last 16 that came with it was the deserved consequence.

Lille also wants to remain unbeaten in their 5th CL home game 24/25

In order to make it into the top eight teams in Europe for the first time in the club’s history, the northern French team will primarily rely on their home strength. In the four home games in the league phase, they scored ten out of a possible twelve points. Eleven goals scored, nine of them in the last two matches at the Stade Pierre Mauroy, are also an indication that the offense around key player Jonathan David is always able to create and convert scoring chances.

The aforementioned David has been involved in eight goals in his last eight CL appearances for the Doges (six goals, two assists), making him the outstanding player in the LOSC attack. At NEO.bet, you can get attractive odds of 2.58 on a David goal between Lille and Dortmund. We have taken a closer look at the strengths and weaknesses of the betting provider in the NEO.bet experience report.

In conclusion, it will be exciting to see which approach the Génésio team chooses. Even last week in Dortmund, the red-and-blues had almost 60% possession of the ball. It is quite possible that it will be a similar figure on Wednesday evening in front of their own fans. Nevertheless, it should not be neglected that, based on the impressions from the first leg and in view of BVB’s lack of form, LOSC is now also demanding that it reach the quarter-finals. Will this “pressure” block or push the young Lille team, which is relatively inexperienced at this level?

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

It was almost perverse that Edin Terzic, former coach of Borussia Dortmund, showed up in the Bosse stand at Signal Iduna Park last Saturday afternoon to greet Ricken, Watzke and Co. when his former protégés were accompanied by a piercing chorus of whistles at half-time with the score at 0-1 at home against Augsburg. In the end, the black and yellow lost to the Fuggerstadt team after another shocking performance, and thus continue to languish in the gray midfield of the table.

The club has lost sight of the top four, the interim upturn was stopped abruptly and now the knockout in the Champions League is looming. As a reminder: the aforementioned Edin Terzic sensationally led Borussia to the final of the premier class last season and, with a similar team, put up a good fight against Real Madrid in the battle for the trophy.

The Ruhrpott team played particularly well in the knockout games in 23/24, impressing with defensive stability and effectiveness in attack. Almost a year later, there is nothing left of that. The Kovac team is stumbling from game to game and could finally be dealt the fatal blow in the north of France on Wednesday evening.

BVB are letting minor things get to them…

Incidentally, statistically speaking, the coach himself provides a glimmer of hope. Niko Kovac is still unbeaten as a coach in the Champions League. The German-Croat has taken to the sidelines seven times for Bayern and BVB and has not conceded a single defeat (5-2-0). It is also worth highlighting that the black and yellow have managed to perform well when they have had their backs to the wall on several occasions, including this season. The Champions League in particular has served as an oasis of comfort on several occasions, where they have been able to make up for their weak performances in the league and show a different side to their game.

And then there is Serhou Guirassy, who continues to lead the scoring charts in Europe’s most important club competition with ten goals. Particularly interesting: in all five away games in BVB kit, Guirassy was able to score at least one point. He scored four times himself and provided two assists. Because Guirassy also takes the penalties and Borussia’s fast wingers may often find themselves in one-on-one situations in the box, I think it makes sense to predict a Guirassy goal before the second leg between Lille and Dortmund.

Lille – Dortmund Direct comparison / H2H record

The first two direct duels date back to the 2001/02 UEFA Cup season. After two draws, BVB reached the quarter-finals thanks to the away goals rule. So the clubs have now met three times in total. All three matches ended in a draw. Value can therefore be assumed even in the Lille vs. Dortmund betting odds that there will be a penalty shootout. Betano offers 5.90 for this. If Borussia wins on penalties, you could even win twelve times your stake.

Lille – Dortmund Tip

Everything is open before the last sixteen second leg between OSC Lille and Borussia Dortmund. The first leg was pretty even. The black and yellows had the advantage in the first half, the northern French in the second half. I rule out a clear victory for either of the two teams on Wednesday evening. Instead, it could be a long evening that doesn’t last 90 or 120 minutes, but possibly even longer.

In the end, it is therefore too tricky for me to bet on a team or to predict the number of goals correctly. My Lille vs. Dortmund betting tip is therefore that BVB goal scorer Guirassy will score at least once. The odds of 2.55 are very appealing, especially since the attacker has already scored four times in five CL away games.