Has Liverpool’s luck run out after the first leg?
The most curious first leg in the Champions League round of 16 definitely took place at the Parc des Princes in Paris last week. Despite a dominant possession share of 71%, a shot statistics of 27:1 and a higher xG value, Paris St. Germain lost 1:0 in front of their own fans and now face a mammoth task at Anfield on Tuesday evening. Although the French league leaders have proven that they can more than hold their own against the Premier League leaders, the betting tip that coach Luis Enrique’s team will advance is still a long way off between Liverpool and PSG.
Ahead of the eagerly awaited second leg between Liverpool and PSG, it is safe to predict that coach Arne Slot’s charges will show a very different face in their own stadium than they did last week. Nevertheless, the visitors from the City of Love naturally have the individual quality to cause a sensation away from home and possibly make up for what they failed to achieve last Wednesday.
If you believe the bookmakers’ odds between Liverpool and PSG, then the Reds’ chances of advancing to the quarter-finals are pretty good. In the most popular sports betting apps, odds of over 3.50 are being offered that the Parisians will still manage the turnaround and advance to the last eight. This corresponds to a probability of less than 30%. You can get a 100% new customer bonus for this at Betano. After successful registration and verification, you will not only receive an automatic doubling of the deposit amount, but also a €20 free bet.
Liverpool vs. PSG prediction AI
The calculations of the “BETSiE” correspond to almost 100% with the offered odds of the bookmakers. Therefore, there is no value on the three-way market. A summed xG value of 2.7 (1.5 to 1.2) means that you could bet on a maximum of three goals, for example. The Liverpool vs. PSG AI prediction for Under 3.5 brings a relatively high odds of 1.60 in the Betano app.
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
In the English Premier League, no one has any doubt that Liverpool Football Club will celebrate their 20th championship in the club’s history. Due to Arsenal’s renewed failure at Manchester United and their own home win against Southampton on Saturday afternoon, the Reds’ lead in the Premier League table has already grown to 14 (!) points. Although the first title of the season can be won next Sunday in the EFL Cup final against Newcastle, the full focus is on the last 16 second leg in the premier league.
Will Liverpool be steamrolled at home again?
The remarkable statistic that LFC have always reached the next round in the last 14 knockout rounds in the Champions League in which the first leg could be won, suggests that the Reds will advance to the quarter-finals, where Aston Villa would in all likelihood be waiting as a league rival. For over two decades, Liverpool have never been knocked out of the Champions League when they have won the first leg of the tie.
Another positive factor is that the Reds have already won the Champions League group stage, impressively winning four of their four home games. Three of the current last-16 contenders, Bayer Leverkusen, Real Madrid and OSC Lille, were brought to their knees in the Anfield cauldron. Over the course of the entire season, there was only one defeat across all competitions in front of their own fans. This also explains why such high odds are being offered on an away win between Liverpool and PSG. Winamax is offering a tempting 2.90 on the three-way market.
After the very weak performance in the Parc des Princes last week, when Alisson Becker played the game of his life and bravely kept the PL leader in the game on several occasions, I expect a significantly improved LFC team, which will probably again leave the initiative to the guests. Thanks to the quality in the offense and the enormous power that the audience can transfer to the players, there will undoubtedly be more attacking actions than in the first leg. A Liverpool vs. PSG forecast for over-goals seems obvious.
PSG – Statistics & current form
In Europe’s top leagues, there are currently only a few teams that can match Paris St. Germain’s form. The French capital club has won 20 of its last 22 competitive games. At the national level, the “Les-Rouges-et-bleu” are on track to win the double, and on the international stage, their performance has improved after initial difficulties.
They have won five of their last six CL matches, scoring a total of 21 goals. With only a slightly higher efficiency, they could have added their sixth consecutive CL victory last week, but, as already mentioned, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia and Co. were stopped several times by Reds goalkeeper Alisson Becker.
However, if the Parisians bring the same joy of playing and dominance to the pitch on Tuesday evening as they did in front of their own fans, then anything is possible for the French on the island. Based on the impressions from a week ago, the odds between Liverpool and PSG on the progress of coach Luis Enrique’s team definitely include value. With the Interwetten app, you can get a whopping 3.90 for “Les Parisiens” to reach the quarter-finals.
The PSG team seems stronger and more complete than ever
The visitors certainly have no lack of self-confidence, having scored at least three goals, and in most cases four or more, in nine of their last twelve competitive matches. The financially strong French league leaders look much stronger than in recent years, especially in terms of mentality, morale and team chemistry. The fickle star ensemble has become an intact, functioning collective with outstanding individual players who, however, put team success first. So they are in the best possible position to pull off an upset at Anfield.
It may even be possible to speak of a sensation, because only in two out of five knockout rounds in the premier class, in which PSG lost the first leg, could they still reach the next round. Furthermore, in the past 15 attempts, no French team has been able to celebrate a CL victory on English soil. 14 defeats and one draw speak for themselves. Nevertheless, betting against this Parisian team in its current form carries a high risk potential.
Liverpool – PSG direct comparison / H2H record
The crazy course of the first leg has already been thoroughly discussed. If Paris had won by two goals, the Reds would not have been able to complain. The ultimately flattering 1-0 victory in the French capital was the third win (two defeats) in the fifth direct duel against PSG. Will the PL leaders strike back in their usual manner on Tuesday evening or was the first leg no flash in the pan after all?
Liverpool – PSG Tip
Many experts and neutral football fans are eagerly awaiting the second leg between Liverpool FC and Paris St. Germain with great anticipation and excitement. On the one hand, because the matter is still completely open after the 0-1 defeat of the French in the first leg. On the other hand, nobody really knows what the Reds will show on Tuesday evening at Anfield. Everyone expects a clear improvement in performance compared to the away game at the Parc des Princes. However, the protégés of coach Luis Enrique could hardly be in better form and more self-confident at the moment.
Because the outcome of the game and a corresponding bet on the 1X2 market are subject to various eventualities, my first inclination is to fall back on the number of goals. I am betting that at least one goal will be scored in each half between Liverpool and PSG. Betano offers a top rate of 1.53 for this, which I am playing with seven units.