Will the Red Devils get off to a good start?

As 13th in the Premier League, there seems to be only one way for Manchester United to salvage their completely messed up 2024/25 season: by winning the UEFA Europa League. It would therefore be important for the English record champions that the betting tip of a good first leg result comes true in the game between Lyon and Manchester United, so that everything can be decided next week in front of their home crowd at Old Trafford.

In this duel between two Portuguese coaches at Lyon against Manchester United, the forecast also tends towards the Red Devils progressing, who are one of the hottest prospects in the Europa League 2025 winners forecast. However, OL coach Paulo Fonseca is about to play his 50th Europa League game as a coach and has enough experience to extend his team’s recent streak. Currently, “Les Gones” have not been beaten in seven EL games (four wins, three draws).

Although the odds of the best betting providers in the first leg between Lyon and Manchester United are slightly in favor of the French team, it should be noted that OL has never won a competitive game against the Red Devils in four attempts (two draws, two defeats) and has recently suffered two defeats in the last six EL home games (three wins, one draw). On the other hand, the English record champions have only lost one of their last 21 Europa League matches (14 wins, six draws).

Lyon – statistics & current form

Olympique Lyon are currently one of the in-form teams in the UEFA Europa League and will take their seven-game unbeaten streak into the quarter-finals (four wins, three draws). In the last-16 second leg against FCSB, they scored 4-0, their biggest European win in almost seven years. In total, the French side have now scored 23 times in this Europa League season. Only in the 2004/05 (29) and 2016/17 (28) seasons have they scored more in European competition. Meanwhile, they have only conceded nine goals.

However, OL have a mixed record against English teams: although the former French champions have only lost once in eight home games against Premier League clubs (four wins, three draws), that last game, of all games, was a 3-0 defeat to West Ham in April 2022. Lyon are also yet to beat the Red Devils (two draws, two defeats), although both home games have at least ended in a draw.

Lyon have lost something of their home strength

Their home record in the Europa League has been mixed of late. Two defeats in their last six home games stand in contrast to three wins (one draw). Previously, Lyon had only lost two of 23 home games in this competition. However, the strong individual form of Malick Fofana, who is among the top scorers with six tournament goals – even though only one of them was scored in their own stadium – offers hope, although the 20-year-old may miss the first leg due to a sprained knee.

Rayan Cherki will be a player to watch again: with eight assists, he has already equaled the Europa League record for assists in a season. Only Kevin De Bruyne and Hakim Ziyech have created more chances than Cherki (38) in a single season. If Lyon get a good result in the first leg, the attacking dynamo in Paulo Fonseca’s team is likely to play a key role again.

Manchester United – Statistics & current form

Manchester United are among the favorites for the title, and not without reason: they have only lost one of their last 21 Europa League games (14 wins, six draws). In the process, the Red Devils scored 2.3 goals per game on average in their last seven matches and only went without scoring in the 3-0 defeat to Sevilla in April 2023 – the only defeat in this period.

Rúben Amorim’s team have also been largely stable away from home: in their last 11 Europa League away games, they have only suffered the aforementioned defeat in Seville (six wins, four draws). Moreover, United have not been beaten in France in six European games (W4, D2), winning their last three in a row. The signs that Tip 2 will come true against Lyon against Manchester United could hardly be worse.

Manchester United with strong Europa League record

In the dress rehearsal, United held city rivals City to a 0-0 draw, although the season in the Premier League remains in tatters. In 13th place in the table, the record champions need to win the Europa League again to be represented internationally next season. So it all comes down to the axis in the center and above all to Bruno Fernandes, who, with a total of 41 scoring points, is historically the most effective player in the Europa League (24 goals, 17 assists). The Portuguese recently scored his first hat-trick in the competition and has been directly involved in six of his last seven appearances.

Statistically speaking, there is another aspect in favor of the 2017 Europa League champions: in their last 11 knockout duels in European competitions, Manchester United have not lost a single home game (five wins, six draws). The last three first legs in foreign stadiums all ended in a draw. And that would certainly be half the battle to reach the semi-finals in the south-east of France…

Lyon – Manchester United Head to head / H2H record

Head to head: 0 – 2 – 2

The two teams have met four times in European competition so far – in the 2004/05 Champions League group stage and in the 2007/08 knockout round of the premier class. Both times, Manchester United drew in the first leg in Lyon and then won the second leg at home in Old Trafford.

Lyon – Manchester United Tip

All in all, our prediction is that the Red Devils will progress against Manchester United. However, it is by no means certain that the English record champions will make a clear statement in the first leg. After all, OL has not been beaten in seven Europa League games (four wins, three draws) and knocked FCSB out of the competition in the last 16 with a total score of 7:1. “Les Gones” have also only conceded nine goals in ten EL games in the 2024/25 season.

For the Red Devils, who have been so lackluster at the national level, a good starting point would be a draw in the French southeast. We therefore expect the visitors not to take too many risks, which makes it a very sensible bet to bet on United scoring a maximum of one goal in the first leg.