Can Leicester upset the favorites?
On Wednesday, February 1st, 2025, Manchester City will face Leicester City in the Premier League. The winner of this game seems to have already been decided, because while the home side are fighting to qualify for the Champions League, the guests are hardly in a position to avert relegation to the English second division. For this reason, the Manchester City vs. Leicester odds also speak very clearly for a victory of the home team. The maximum odds for a home win are only 1.22.
In our Manchester City vs. Leicester prediction, we now want to check how likely a victory for the Citizens really is. We start with the home and away record of the two teams. There is already an imbalance here, because while the Foxes only get 0.57 points per game away from home, the home side get 1.93 points per home game. So this is one of the strongest home teams against one of the weakest away teams in the English top flight.
Another important part of any good analysis is the comparison of form, and here, too, the guests are lagging far behind. Ruud van Nistelrooy’s team are currently on a run of seven defeats in a row in competitive games and are thus experiencing an absolute downturn. Pep Guardiola’s team, on the other hand, have much more to be happy about with three wins from their last five games. In the first section of our prediction, the Manchester City vs. Leicester tip suggests a home win.
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
Manchester City has so far put in rather disappointing performances this season, managing just 48 points from their first 29 league games. As a result, Pep Guardiola’s team currently occupies fifth place in the Premier League and is falling far short of its own expectations. Furthermore, the gap to Liverpool, the current league leaders, is already 22 points. Things have not gone better in other competitions either, with the Citizens being knocked out of both the EFL Cup and the Champions League. At the moment, the star ensemble would only qualify for the Europa League. A win against the Foxes is therefore extremely important.
Manchester City will crack the opposing defense
The Skyblues’ offense is performing impressively, scoring 55 goals in 29 league games (Ø 1.90), making them one of the best attacking lines in the Premier League. In fact, only Liverpool have scored more. In addition, Pep Guardiola’s team have not scored four times, meaning they have scored at least one goal in 86% of games. With Erling Braut Haaland, who has scored 24 points in 28 PL games, the Citizens’ most dangerous player is now out of action. This naturally raises the question of whether Manchester City can make up for this loss or whether the results will suffer as a result.
Manchester City rarely keep a clean sheet
Defensively, things have gone much worse so far, because 40 goals conceded in 29 games (Ø 1.38) are simply too many for their own goals. In addition, Pep Guardiola’s team have only kept a clean sheet seven times in the Premier League, conceding at least one goal in 76% of league games. At home, the rate is even slightly worse at just under 79%. However, this should only play a minor role in the game against Leicester City, because the Foxes have one of the weakest offenses in the league and hardly pose a goal-scoring threat.
Leicester – Statistics & current form
Leicester City were already one of the candidates for relegation before this season as promoted teams. This has absolutely proven to be the case, because with only 17 points, the Foxes are only in 19th place and are therefore in serious danger of relegation. Strictly speaking, the away team are already nine points adrift of safety. What’s more, Ruud van Nistelrooy’s team have only won four league games, so a winning streak in the remaining nine games is not necessarily to be expected. So do the visitors have any realistic chance at all of winning a point against the Citizens?
Leicester is just too harmless
With only 25 goals in 29 games (Ø 0.86), the Foxes have one of the weakest offenses in the Premier League. In fact, there is only one other team, Southampton, that has scored even less. In addition, Ruud van Nistelrooy’s team has not scored a goal twelve times, meaning they have only managed to score in 59% of league games. However, the rate is slightly better away from home, at 64%. We would not necessarily expect the reigning champions to score against, though.
Leicester are not ready for the Premier League defensively either
But it’s not just in offense that things are going badly, it’s also in defense. With 65 goals conceded in 29 league games (Ø 2.24), the Foxes even have one of the weakest defenses in the league. In this statistic, too, there is only one team, Southampton FC, that has conceded more goals so far. Moreover, Ruud van Nistelrooy’s team has only kept a clean sheet once, conceding at least one goal in 97% of their matches. Away from home, the rate is even 100%, so a goal for the Citizens seems inevitable.
Manchester City – Leicester Direct comparison / H2H record
In the analysis so far, there is not a single point in favor of the away team – but what about in direct comparison? In the H2H comparison, the trend continues, because with only 33 wins from 129 games (26%), the Foxes’ win rate is very modest. By comparison, the Citizens have 65 wins, giving them a rate of just under 51%. It is therefore not surprising that the Manchester City vs. Leicester betting odds clearly favor a home win.
Manchester City – Leicester betting tip
In summary of all the facts mentioned, we have decided on a Manchester City vs. Leicester betting tip on a goal for the home team in both halves. Offensively, the reigning champions are performing at an excellent level despite the mixed season and are hard to defend against over 90 minutes. In addition, Pep Guardiola’s team are facing one of the weakest defenses in the Premier League, so a multitude of chances should arise. We therefore expect a clear victory for the home side.
Alternatively, you can also add the Manchester City vs. Leicester odds for a handicap victory by the home team of -1 to your betting slip. The reasons for our alternative tip are identical to our main tip and therefore do not need to be listed again. However, the Citizens were also able to win the last two duels by two goals, so the probability of this happening is quite high.