Who will secure three points in the battle for the top spot?

On Tuesday, April 22, 2025, we kick off the 34th matchday of the Premier League with the clash between Manchester City and Aston Villa. The game has been brought forward as both teams are in action in the FA Cup semi-finals this coming weekend. Looking at the table, there doesn’t seem to be a clear favorite ahead of this clash, as Cityzens are in fourth place with 58 points, while the Villans are just one point behind in seventh. Nevertheless, the Manchester City vs. Aston Villa odds from German bookmakers clearly favor a home win. Why might that be?

We will now give you the answer to this question in our Manchester City vs. Aston Villa prediction. We will start with the home and away records and come up with an initial conclusion. The Cityzens are incredibly difficult to beat at their own stadium, picking up 33 points from 16 home games. In addition, the Villans are significantly weaker away from home, picking up only 23 points from 16 away games. This puts the visitors in tenth place in the away table.

Manchester City – Statistics & current form

As reigning champions, Manchester City naturally wanted to compete for the title again this season and defend their crown. However, with only 58 points from 33 games, Pep Guardiola’s team is far from achieving this. Liverpool already has 79 points and has been out of reach for a few weeks now. However, things could get even worse for the Citizens, as even their participation in the Champions League is not certain at this point. Five teams are still fighting for the remaining three Champions League spots: Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, and Newcastle United. Can the home side pick up some big points?

Manchester City is almost impossible to defend for 90 minutes

With 64 goals in 33 league games (average 1.94), the home side have one of the best attacks in the Premier League. In fact, only Liverpool FC have scored more. Pep Guardiola’s team have failed to score just five times, meaning they have found the net in 85% of their games. At home, the rate is even better at 87%. In their 16 home games so far, Spurs have scored 37 goals, averaging 2.31 per game. For this reason alone, it is unlikely that the Villans will go home without conceding a goal in this encounter.

Manchester City has a weak spot

With so much offensive power, the question naturally arises as to how the Citizens can be 21 points behind Liverpool FC. The answer to this question is quite simple, because defensively, Pep Guardiola’s team is far from its best form. With 42 goals conceded in 33 games (Ø 1.27), the Citizens are only seventh in the league and thus behind Everton, for example. Nevertheless, the home side have already kept ten clean sheets and conceded a goal in “only” 70% of their league games. However, we doubt that this will be enough to stop the visitors’ strong offense over 90 minutes.

Aston Villa – Statistics & current form

Aston Villa are having a truly remarkable season. Unai Emery’s team have picked up 57 points from their first 33 games and are just one point behind the Champions League places. The Villans are also in the semi-finals of the FA Cup and still have a chance of winning a trophy. However, the direct clash with Manchester City is the main focus for now, as a win could theoretically see the visitors jump to third place. With only 15 points left to play for, that would of course be an excellent starting position for the coming weeks. Is Aston Villa capable of defeating the reigning champions?

Aston Villa has great players in its ranks

With “only” 53 goals in 33 league games (average 1.61), there are a number of teams that have scored more frequently this season. Seven teams, to be precise, meaning that the Villans are only seventh in this category. Nevertheless, Unai Emery’s team found the back of the net in 82% of their games and only failed to score six times. Away from home, however, the rate is significantly worse at only 75%. Nevertheless, we expect the visitors to score, as they have an incredible amount of quality in players such as Marcus Rashford, Ollie Watkins, Marco Asensio, Josh McGinn, and Morgan Rogers.

Aston Villa with slight problems in defense

Defensively, things are not going quite as well for Unai Emery’s team as they are in attack. The Villans have conceded 47 goals in their first 33 games (average 1.42) and are only twelfth in the league in this respect. In addition, the visitors have kept a clean sheet only six times this season, conceding at least one goal in 82% of their league games. Surprisingly, however, the away record is slightly better at “only” 75%. Nevertheless, we would not bet our money on a clean sheet against one of the best offenses in the Premier League.

Manchester City – Aston Villa Head-to-head record / H2H record

In the first two sections of our analysis, we were unable to identify a clear favorite, but what does a look at the head-to-head record tell us? The H2H comparison paints a different picture, as the Cityzens have won 81 of the 182 encounters, while the Villans have 59 wins, meaning they have won only 32% of all meetings. In the first half of the season, however, Pep Guardiola’s team was defeated 1-2, losing two of the last three encounters. For us, this is another reason why the Manchester City vs. Aston Villa betting odds should be a little closer.

Manchester City – Aston Villa Tip

Based on our analysis, we can’t get past the Manchester City vs. Aston Villa betting tip “both teams to score – yes.” The Citizens naturally have more individual quality and are particularly difficult to beat at home. On the other hand, the visitors are in much better form, winning ten of their last ten competitive games and two of their last three encounters. In addition, both teams have scored at least one goal in seven of their last eight meetings. This suggests that we are in for a high-scoring match.

Alternatively, or in addition, you can add the Manchester City vs. Aston Villa odds for over 2.5 goals in the game to your betting slip. In six of the last eight matches, more than two goals were scored, with an average of 3.25 goals per game. Even a game with more than 3.5 goals is therefore not that unlikely. You can find the best odds for our alternative tip at Winamax. However, an account with this bookmaker is also worthwhile for other reasons, such as the odds boost, which maximizes your winnings.