Will Montenegro get off to the expected home win in the opener?
The name Scott Wiseman literally invites you to create uncreative puns. Admittedly, however, the 39-year-old native of England can certainly be described as a wise man, because under other circumstances the Gibraltar Football Association would hardly entrust two national teams to the ex-professional. Wiseman is not only coaching the newly formed women’s team, but also the men on an interim basis. He will make his debut on Saturday evening in the World Cup qualifiers. However, before the Montenegro v Gibraltar game, backing the footballing maverick to get a point is a huge gamble.
Although the Montenegrins have not played the stars from the sky in competitive matches recently either, they are of course the clear favorites at the start of the European World Cup qualifiers compared to the underdog from the British overseas territory. This Montenegro vs Gibraltar prediction is also fully supported by the bookmakers.
This assessment is illustrated by the Montenegro v Gibraltar odds. While you can get sensational odds of up to 38.00 for a guest win, which corresponds to a 2% probability of occurrence, the maximum odds for the home success of the “Sokoli” is just 1.07. If you want to combine the expected victory of the host with other markets, you can, for example, use the Bet Builder in the Merkur Bets app.
Montenegro – Statistics & current form
The Montenegrin national team has had a rather disappointing year of football in 2024. In ten international matches, they suffered seven defeats. At least they were able to win the other three games. In addition to victories against Belarus and North Macedonia, the 3-1 home win on the final matchday of the Nations League preliminary round against the European Championship quarter-finalists from Turkey caused a sensation. If the team of coach Robert Prosinecki can build on the performance they showed in late fall, a forecast for a (double) handicap bet should be considered between Montenegro and Gibraltar.
Montenegro relies on home strength
In any case, it should be noted that the overall disappointing NL group stage was primarily due to a good opposition in the B division. Opponents like Wales, Iceland or Turkey are basically in a completely different league to the Gibraltarians on Saturday evening.
Added to this is the home advantage, which traditionally plays a not insignificant role for the “Sokoli”. In the course of qualifying for EURO 2024, the Montenegrins were also able to beat Lithuania and Bulgaria at home, for example. They managed to draw against European Championship participants Hungary.
Although it is now to be assumed that the Falcons will have to seize the initiative against a very deep opponent, I also see a serious quality advantage in favor of the 73rd-ranked team, which should tip the pendulum significantly in favor of the home team. It is therefore quite possible that the team of coach Prosinecki, who can call on well-known players such as Jovetic (Omonia Nikosia), Krstovic (Lecce), Osmajic (Preston North End) and Radulovic (Rapid Vienna), especially in offense, to take a small preliminary decision in the first 45 minutes, especially since 63% of all international goals were scored in the first half last year.
Expected line-up:
Nikic – Marusic, Vujacic, Sipcic, Radunovic – Jankovic, Bakic – Radulovic, Jovovic, Camaj – Krstovic
Gibraltar – statistics & current form
At first glance, it may come as a surprise that the Gibraltar national team has now gone seven international matches without defeat. On closer inspection, however, this supposed monster streak must be put into perspective. The opponents in the course of the positive run were namely San Marino, Liechtenstein, Andorra or Moldova. Against more notable opponents, the selection of the national association, which became a full member of UEFA in 2013 as the 54th member, has regularly reached its own limits in recent years.
How long will it take for Ribas’ successor to settle in?
Apart from that, there was a huge turning point in the still young history of the 196th-ranked team in the world, which is actually ranked behind national teams from Montserrat, Laos and Macau in the FIFA ranking, about three weeks ago. Long-standing coach Julio Ribas, who previously worked at club level in Gibraltar, left the British overseas territory for family reasons and returned to Uruguay. Since no permanent solution was found at short notice, Scott Wiseman, the current coach of the women’s team, who also have important qualifiers at the beginning of April, has taken over.
In view of the change on the bench, it is even more complicated to identify worthwhile odds between Montenegro and Gibraltar. Basically, however, I would not be surprised if the modified ideas of the new coach were initially accompanied by a drop in performance or a temporary deterioration compared to the Ribas era.
In the early stages in particular, a possibly exaggerated courage or overconfident self-confidence could lead to early goals against. If you think the no-name side from the south coast of Spain will score at least once, you can get an impressive 3.35 for both teams to score in the Betano app.
Predicted Lineup:
Banda – Santos, Torrilla, Bent, Lopes – Walker, Pozo, Scanlon – Britto, De Barr, Ronan
Montenegro – Gibraltar Head to Head / H2H Record
The only two previous meetings between the sides were in the qualifiers for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Montenegro won both the home and away games, beating Gibraltar 4-1 at home and 3-0 away. We are also seeing similar levels – in terms of the handicap or the number of goals – in the upcoming duel in Niksic.
Montenegro – Gibraltar Tip
Neutral fans certainly don’t need to hope for a big football treat in Montenegro on Saturday evening. In World Cup qualifying group L, which also includes the Serbs and the loser of the NL quarter-final between Croatia and France, the Montenegrins and Gibraltar face each other. Both teams are only considered outsiders with regard to next year’s World Cup finals in the USA, Canada and Mexico. The guests from the British overseas territory even more so than the hosts, who at least managed to achieve a notable success in their last international match with a 3-1 victory against Turkey.
The Gibraltarians, on the other hand, have a seven-match unbeaten streak to their credit, which, however, came about against significantly weaker opponents and under a different coach. On Saturday, Scott Wiseman, who otherwise coaches the country’s women’s team, will be sitting on the bench as a coach with no experience at this level. I therefore expect the hosts to have a clear advantage and am betting on at least two goals being scored in the first 45 minutes before the Montenegro v Gibraltar clash.