Will the Orly celebrate a great start?

The start of Group G of the 2026 World Cup qualifier sees two teams clash that have not been doing well recently. While the Polish national football team has been relegated from League A of the UEFA Nations League after being knocked out in the preliminary round of the EURO 2024, the Lithuanian team has even been relegated to League D and will now have to compete at the same level as teams like Liechtenstein and Andorra. Against this background alone, the tip for the home win of the Orly against Poland is almost inevitable.

However, the Poles’ self-confidence is anything but pronounced. The red and whites have only won one of their last nine international matches (two draws, six defeats) and recently even suffered a 2-1 home defeat against Scotland in the Nations League, which should not be excluded from the forecast in the game between Poland and Lithuania.

On paper, Poland has the much more notable team and should be able to translate the quality difference into goals through stars like Robert Lewandowski. Nevertheless, Lithuania should not be taken too lightly. Although the Baltic team is currently on a six-game losing streak, none of their last 26 international matches has been lost by more than two goals.

Poland – Statistics & current form

The Polish national football team has established itself among Europe’s elite, taking part in five consecutive European Championships. However, their recent elimination in the preliminary round of EURO 2024 in Germany marked the beginning of a downward trend. After the Orly (in English: the Eagles) always finished third in League A in the first three editions of the UEFA Nations League, thus avoiding relegation, they were relegated to League B in the 2024/25 edition.

The crash was not even on the horizon, because with a 3-2 away win over Scotland, the red-whites (Polish: Biało-Czerwoni) actually got off to a great start in Group A1. However, because they were only able to score one of a possible 15 points after that, Poland ended up in fourth place and will have to play in League B for the first time next season. Accordingly, a smooth qualification for the 2026 World Cup would be important now.

Poland has to do without three regular players

In principle, the tip for Poland against Lithuania is that the red and whites will win their first game. After all, one of the underdogs from qualifying group G is now coming to the Warsaw National Stadium. However, with the Polish team having won only one of their last nine international matches (two draws, six defeats), there is a slight dip in the confidence of coach Michał Probierz’s team.

There are also a few injuries to deal with. While Barca goalkeeper Wojciech Szeczesny retired after the EURO 2024, three potential starting players – Sebastian Walukiewicz (Turin FC), Nicola Zalewski (Inter Milan) and Arkadiusz Milik (Juventus) – are currently out injured, which means the team will have to find a way to compensate for their absence. Despite stars like Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona), the quality of the Orly is not particularly strong.

Predicted Poland line-up:
Skorupski – Bednarek, Bereszynski, Kiwior, Dawidowicz – Frankowski, Szymanski, Moder, Kaminski – Piatek, Lewandowski

Lithuania – statistics & current form

The Lithuanian national football team has yet to achieve any notable success. The football minnows from the Baltic region, who have been trying unsuccessfully to qualify for a final round of a World or European Championship since the collapse of the Soviet Union, only took part in the Olympic Games once, in 1924. The Trispalvės (in English: the tricolors) have not yet played a role in the UEFA Nations League either.

After Lithuania managed to stay in League C of the Nations League for three consecutive years, it will face opponents such as Andorra in League D in the upcoming edition, marking a new low. However, in Group C2 with Romania, Kosovo and Cyprus, the Lithuanian team suffered six defeats in six games, in which they only scored four goals.

Lithuania have not been beaten in a long time

The Lithuanians, who usually play very defensively, have only conceded eleven goals – and thus on average less than two goals per game. However, this defensive style of play was usually at the expense of offense. And yet: the team of coach Edgaras Jankauskas has not lost by more than two goals in any of their last 26 international matches, which is why the chances of not going down in Warsaw are favorable.

Nevertheless, the 142nd-ranked team in the FIFA world rankings is, of course, traveling to Poland as a very clear underdog. At Betano, where new customers can currently get a 100% bonus up to €80 as well as a €20 free bet with the Betano Bonus, the odds for Poland against Lithuania are 24.00 for an away win by the football minnow, which has already won two of its ten previous internationals against the Polish team (three draws, five defeats).

Predicted Lithuania line-up:
Gertmonas – Lasickas, Girdvainis, Sirvys, Utkus, Kazukolovas – Cernych, Golubickas, Gineitis, Matulevicius – Paulauskas

Poland – Lithuania Head to head / H2H record

Head to head: 5 – 3 – 2

A total of ten duels have taken place between the two nations so far, and with five wins, the Polish national football team clearly leads the direct comparison. Most recently, the Orly remained unbeaten by Lithuania in three consecutive meetings (two wins, one draw). They last celebrated a confident 4-0 home victory in a friendly match in Warsaw in the summer of 2018.

Poland – Lithuania Betting Tip

Although the betting odds of the best bookmakers are clearly in favor of Poland against Lithuania, However, the Orly have not won any of their last five international matches (one draw, four defeats) and are not exactly entering this home game with excessive self-confidence. In other words, given the very low prices found in the three-way system, the tip for the home win of the red and whites should not be taken lightly. In particular, this bet should not be included automatically in combination bets under any circumstances.

Basically, the forecast for Poland vs. Lithuania must be a Polish home win. However, we do not expect a landslide victory, which is why most eventualities can be covered by applying a handicap of +3 to the Lithuanian team.