Can the Rouge-et-Bleu set the course for the semi-finals?

While Aston Villa steamrolled past Club Brugge with a total score of 6:1, Paris Saint-Germain surprisingly defeated Liverpool FC in the round of 16. After the Rouge-et-Bleu were eliminated by an English club in the knockout round of the Champions League for the third year in a row, they have finally managed to eliminate a representative of the Premier League again. Even now, the betting tip for PSG against Aston Villa is that the newly crowned French champions will advance.

With a 1-0 home win over Angers in the dress rehearsal on Saturday, the Rouge-et-Bleu secured their 13th national championship at a remarkably early stage in the season. This means that Luis Enrique’s team can fully concentrate on the Champions League. It is certainly worth noting for the PSG v Aston Villa prediction that Enrique leads the direct head-to-head with Emery with seven wins from ten meetings (one draw, two defeats). However, the two coaches have not yet met in the current line-up. In fact, it is the first competitive meeting between the Parisians and the Villans.

The visitors from Birmingham are definitely bringing momentum with them to the Seine. Aston Villa have won their last eight competitive games across all competitions. In the final rehearsal, they celebrated a 2-1 home win over Nottingham Forest, who are currently in third place in the Premier League. The Lions have also won their last three Champions League games and finished the league phase in eighth place, seven places ahead of Paris Saint-Germain.

PSG vs. Aston Villa prediction AI

In principle, supercomputer BETSiE agrees with our betting tips. The AI calculates an expected goals value of 1.94 for Paris Saint-Germain and 0.86 for Aston Villa – a combined total of 2.80, which means that under 3.5 goals are just as likely as under 2.5 goals scored by PSG. However, the AI finds even more value in another betting option, which is why the AI prediction for the double chance X2 is in PSG against Aston Villa.

While Betano offers odds of 3.00 for this, suggesting a probability of 33.3 percent that the Lions will not lose at the Seine, the AI even calculates that the Villans have a 37.3 percent chance of avoiding defeat at the Parc des Princes. This results in an admittedly very risky tip, but one that promises a positive expected value in the eyes of the AI.

PSG – Statistics & current form

After their spectacular victory over Liverpool FC, Paris Saint-Germain are through to the Champions League quarter-finals for the sixth time in ten years. However, the fact that Aston Villa are now waiting to be the fourth Premier League representative this European Cup season underlines the Rouge-et-Bleu’s tough draw.

However, PSG have recently been vulnerable at home in the Parc des Princes. They have lost four of their last eight home games in the Champions League (three wins, one draw). That’s as many defeats as they’ve had in their previous 22 games combined. After the 1-0 defeat to Liverpool, they are even facing the prospect of their second consecutive home defeat for the first time since May 2024. In addition to the youthfulness of the squad (average age of 24), Ousmane Dembélé in particular is a source of hope. The tricky dribbler scored seven goals in his last six Champions League games – as many goals as he previously scored in 36 games in total.

Can PSG crack the Villans’ compact defense?

Playmaker Vitinha also performed remarkably well. Not only does the Portuguese have the highest pass completion rate under pressure in the current competition (93 percent), but he also played the most line-breaking passes in the knockout phase (77). Overall, Luis Enrique’s team is good at breaking down defences, though this is where the most compact team in the competition awaits them, which is why we are tipping a first leg that is not too high scoring when PSG take on Aston Villa.

Meanwhile, Luis Enrique’s players should not lack self-confidence after reaching several milestones again recently. Not only did the Parisians reach the final of the Coupe de France, which will take place in May, but they also secured the 13th championship in the club’s history last Saturday with a 1-0 win against Angers. After 28 league games without defeat (23 wins, five draws), the 22-point lead over Olympique Marseille can no longer be caught in mathematical terms.

Aston Villa – Statistics & current form

Aston Villa go into this quarter-final tie with three consecutive Champions League wins. They recently eliminated Club Brugge with an aggregate score of 6:1, putting the Premier League club in the top eight in Europe for the first time since 1982. However, Unai Emery’s team have had a mixed run away from home in the current CL season. In five away games, there have been alternating wins (three) and defeats (two).

What is striking is the great stability in the center of the Lions: no team in this Champions League season allowed fewer chances through the midfield third than Aston Villa (only twelve in total), while 52 percent of their own scoring chances were built up through exactly this zone – the highest in the competition. And the individual quality also stands out: Marco Asensio scored three goals in two appearances as a sub – more than in ten previous Champions League games for his former club Paris Saint-Germain, for whom he would now love to extend this series.

The record speaks against Aston Villa

Aston Villa have not won away games against Ligue 1 teams in five attempts (three defeats, two draws). The Birmingham club lost to Lille and Monaco under Unai Emery. The Lions’ manager, of all people, also has a mediocre personal record against PSG coach Luis Enrique (two wins, one draw, seven defeats), including the infamous 6-1 defeat to Paris in Barcelona.

Against this background, the odds against Aston Villa at PSG also speak against the visitors. The Bet365 app quotes 7.50 for the Villans’ first-leg victory, which would be historic in more ways than one. Not only would Aston Villa take a giant step towards the semi-finals, but they would also finally shake off their image as the supposedly weakest team in the remaining quarter-finals.

PSG – Aston Villa head to head comparison / H2H record

Never before has a European competitive game been played between the two. Therefore, no direct “head to head” data is available yet that could influence our prediction at PSG vs. Aston Villa.

PSG – Aston Villa Betting Tip

For our liking, the betting odds for PSG against Aston Villa are a bit too clear in favor of the Rouge-et-Bleu, who have not been too dominant lately, especially at home. In the Champions League, they have lost four of their last eight home games (three wins, one draw) – including the 1-0 defeat in the last 16 first leg against Liverpool, which was still erased at Anfield. Traditionally, however, the Parisians have a hard time against English teams in knockout duels, which is why we do not expect the newly crowned French champions to settle everything in the first leg.

While we do not rule out the favored French team winning the first leg, the defensive qualities of Aston Villa in particular must be recognized. The Lions beat, among others, the strong attacking Bayern 1-0 in the league phase and only conceded seven goals in ten Champions League games in 2024/25. Accordingly, it makes sense to avoid the three-way system and to bet on a first leg that is not too high-scoring.

We recommend betting on under 3.5 goals, which we offer at Betano at odds of 1.65 with five out of ten units.