Who will win the Bundesliga duel of the problem children?

BVB did it! With a 2-1 away win in Lille, the black and yellows once again made it to the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League, where they will now be served two more highlight matches against FC Barcelona on a silver platter in April. However, the pleasing performance on the international stage should not obscure the fact that BVB could fail to qualify for the European Cup for the first time since 2008/09. The upcoming opponent shares this fate almost entirely, so that the RB Leipzig vs. Dortmund tip for the further course of this Bundesliga season has a trend-setting character.

For the first time in their joint first division history, the clubs are facing each other without at least one team being in the top four of the table. The Bulls have recently fallen back to sixth place after poor performances, while BVB are only in tenth place. It doesn’t take a prophet to predict that both teams will be desperate for the three points to improve their situations ahead of Saturday evening’s game between RB Leipzig and Dortmund.

Nevertheless, after their recent performances at national level, there are few arguments in favor of a goal-filled spectacle. Instead, it can be assumed that Marco Rose and Niko Kovac will probably give their charges more controlled match plans, which should influence the number of goals scored during the game.

RB Leipzig vs. Dortmund Prediction AI

In any case, the calculated xG values of 1.36 to 1.29 suggest that there will probably be no high victory for either team. In general, it must be noted that the AI’s prophecies are almost 100% in line with the betting odds offered by providers, which makes it particularly difficult to identify value. In any case, “BETSiE” assumes that both teams will score and that there will be more than 2.5 goals. The RB Leipzig vs. Dortmund AI prediction therefore combines these two markets into a maximum rate of 1.78 at Betano.

RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form

Never before has RB Leipzig had fewer points on the account after 25 match days than they currently have. The 39 points collected leave the managers of the Red Bull group on the one hand questioning and on the other hand fearing. Questioning because the expectations of the soft drink manufacturer are of course quite different and the central city team is lagging miles behind. They are worried about the fact that not only the CL participation, but even the complete qualification for the European Cup is in jeopardy. In the worst-case scenario, the international season 25/26 will go by without RBL participation for the first time since the Bundesliga promotion.

RB Leipzig is currently only average in many respects

Until then, however, Marco Rose and his players still have the opportunity to limit the damage. However, it is precisely this endeavor that has failed with alarming regularity in recent weeks. The Saxons, who still have a chance of lifting the DFB Cup, have won just one of their last nine Bundesliga games. They have not won four times in a row (0-3-1). There has never been a run of five Bundesliga matches without a win in the history of the young club!

In particular, the lack of firepower in attack is currently causing the coaching team headaches. Ten goals scored in eight second-half matches is a disappointing figure. Especially when you consider that they have not scored in three of their last six Bundesliga matches. At least the defense is reliable. This is underlined by the twelve clean sheets and the seven consecutive Bundesliga games that ended with a maximum of four goals in the game. In five of the seven cases, even under 3.5 would have gone through.

Last week there was a 0-0 draw against SC Freiburg. It was already the sixth (!) Zero number of the current season. In general, the central city team is the draw kings of the Bundesliga with nine draws. On Saturday evening, betting odds of 3.70 are offered in the Oddset app for the X before the duel between RB Leipzig and Dortmund.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Smiling BVB players, celebrating fans in black and yellow and officials who were visibly relieved. All this could be seen after many weeks of sadness at the end of the CL round of 16 second leg in Lille. Thanks to goals from Emre Can and Maxi Beier, Borussia came back from 1-0 down to win 2-1 in northern France and advance to the last eight of the Champions League. They will face FC Barcelona in April, an opponent against whom last year’s finalist has nothing to lose.

Is BVB falling back into old Bundesliga patterns?

However, the two additional English weeks are poison for the task of still being able to have a say in the race for the top four in the Bundesliga. Especially when you see how BVB has presented itself in the league games following Champions League nights this season. The best example of this was last week, when the team, which is tenth in the table, lost 1-0 at home to FC Augsburg, and in doing so, lacked all the momentum that had suddenly returned four days later in the premier league. It’s hard to figure out the Kovac team, which is why I would tend to refrain from making a prediction about the guest team between RB Leipzig and Dortmund.

This is also supported by the fact that Niko Kovac, with six points from the first five Bundesliga games, had the weakest start of all BVB coaches since Jürgen Röber in 2007. Ten points from eight second-phase games is the weakest return since 2008/09 – incidentally the last season in which the black and yellows missed out on qualifying for Europe. A certain weakness away from home has been a recurring theme throughout the season.

After the exertions during the week and in view of the fact that the second English week in a row for the crisis club ends on Saturday evening, coach Kovac will therefore give his team a rather wait-and-see approach. With a high degree of discipline, concentration and passion, danger is to be created from a compact basic order with transition actions. In view of this assumption, the odds on under 3.5 goals in the top tip table are also found between RB Leipzig and Dortmund.

RB Leipzig – Dortmund direct comparison / H2H record

In November 2024, the teams faced each other in the first leg. At the time, former coach Nuri Sahin was under extreme pressure after poor results and led his team to an important 2-1 home victory. Looking back at the last eight competitive duels, it was one of only two successes for the black and yellows, who lost six times and thus continue to have no good record against their bogey opponents from Saxony. In Leipzig, Dortmund have even lost four times in a row. Another defeat in the Red Bull Arena would at least not be a surprise.

RB Leipzig – Dortmund Tip

Two problem children of this year’s Bundesliga season face each other in a direct duel on Saturday evening. It’s hard to believe that RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund are currently only in sixth and tenth place respectively. Both teams are lagging behind expectations and cannot afford many more slip-ups in the rest of the season if they also want to be in Europe in 2025/26.

Although BVB were able to celebrate a success in the premier class during the week, I see the home side, who have drawn six of their last eight Bundesliga matches, as being slightly ahead. The fresher bulls have home advantage and, in addition, a strong record against Borussia. That’s why I combine the 1X with a maximum of four goals after 90 minutes in my RB Leipzig vs. Dortmund betting tip and get 1.78 as the highest odds with the help of the Bet Builder from Betano. My stake is six units.