Can Real Madrid upset the favorites?

On Tuesday, March 18, 2025, the women’s Champions League will see the clash between Real Madrid and Arsenal. If we look at the bookmakers’ odds, the English women seem to have the better chances of winning despite not having the home advantage. This is probably due to the fact that the Gunners have more individual class than the Blancas with a squad value of €4.2 million compared to €3.4 million. In our Real Madrid vs. Arsenal Women prediction, we now want to take a closer look at the two teams.

First, we look at the home and away records of the two teams. It quickly becomes clear why German betting providers are more likely to expect an away win. The Blancas have already conceded 18 points in their own stadium and won “only” 11 of their 18 home games. By comparison, the Gunners already have nine wins from 13 away games and have only dropped ten points. Home advantage is thus losing a great deal of its relevance, so the Real Madrid vs. Arsenal women’s odds rightly favor the visitors to win.

The comparison of form also makes the distribution of roles clear, because while the hosts have only won one of their last four competitive games, the Gunners have won four of their last five. So early on in our analysis, we can’t seem to get past our Real Madrid vs. With a maximum rate of 2.07, found at Betano, this betting tip also offers a lot of value. But first, let’s take a look at the team analysis.

Real Madrid – Stats & current form

Real Madrid will look back on the season with mixed feelings. Alberto Toril’s team took 56 points from their first 22 league games to finish second in La Liga. However, winning the league is still quite unlikely, as FC Barcelona already have seven more points and have only dropped three points. The Blancas also had a tough time against FCB in the Copa de Su Majestad La Reina and the Supercup. The only chance of a title remains the premier class. However, the odds for the hosts to win the title are 35.00 at Betano.

Real Madrid with plenty of offensive power

With 93 goals in 36 competitive games (Ø 2.58) across all competitions, the Blancas are performing at a very high level offensively. In addition, Alberto Toril’s team have only been without a goal of their own four times, thus finding the way into the opposing goal in 89% of the matches. Furthermore, three of the four clean sheets were against the currently best team in women’s soccer – FC Barcelona. It seems to be damn hard for all other clubs to stop this forward line. One player stands out in particular and that is Signe Bruun. The Dane has already collected 20 scorer points in 1,241 minutes of play and has been involved in a goal every 62 minutes.

Real Madrid with slight defensive problems

While things are going almost perfectly on the offensive side, the hosts’ defense still has room for improvement. However, this is complaining at a high level, because the Blancas have conceded only 44 goals (Ø 1.22) in 36 games and have thus been anything but bad. Nevertheless, Alberto Toril’s team has conceded at least one goal in 67% of the games and has too often failed to keep a clean sheet even against supposedly weak opponents. Especially against Arsenal FC, who also have plenty of quality in attack, we think it unlikely that they will keep a clean sheet.

Line-up:
Rodriguez – Lakrar, Mendez, Carmona, Garcia – Leupolz, Toletti, Weir, Angeldahl – Caicedo, Bruun

Arsenal – Statistics & current form

Arsenal’s season can be compared very well with that of Real Madrid. The Gunners are also playing second fiddle in England and have little realistic chance of winning the league. In addition, Renee Slegers’ team only recently lost in the FA Cup and also failed in the League Cup. So the Champions League is also the last real chance for the away team to win a title. However, this is not really realistic, because teams like Barcelona, Lyon or Chelsea are simply on a different level. That’s why the odds for winning the Champions League are 8.00.

Arsenal with a great offensive line

With 81 goals in 31 games (Ø 2.61), the away team’s forward line is even better than Real Madrid’s. In addition, Renee Slegers’ team have only been without a goal of their own four times, putting the ball in the opponent’s net in 87% of competitive games. Alessia Russo and Mariona Caldentey are two players who particularly stand out. The duo already has 31 scorer points this season and is therefore difficult to stop. Away from home, however, the Gunners’ rate is slightly worse at just 77%. Qualitatively, however, the guests are definitely capable of scoring at least one goal against the Blancas.

Arsenal are very compact

Renee Slegers’ team are not only doing well in offense, but also in defense. The Gunners have conceded only 24 goals in 31 competitive games (Ø 0.77), well below the magic mark of 1.0. It is therefore no wonder that the English team have kept a clean sheet 17 times already, allowing a goal in just 45% of games. However, the ratio is slightly worse away from home, at “only” 54%. Nevertheless, this is still a very good value on which to build before the game against Real Madrid.

Lineup:
Domselaar – Fox, Catley, Williamson, McCabe – Cooney-Cross, Little, Foord, Caldentey – Blackstenius, Russo

Real Madrid vs. Arsenal Women Head to head / H2H record

Arsenal have come out on top in the first two legs of our analysis, but how do they fare when it comes to head-to-head encounters? There is no winner in the H2H comparison, because the two clubs have not yet met each other. This is quite unusual, because the two teams have been playing in the Champions League for years and are an integral part of this competition. This point is therefore completely irrelevant for the distribution of Real Madrid vs. Arsenal Women betting odds and will only be interesting in the second leg at most.

Real Madrid vs. Arsenal Women Betting Tip

In summary of all the facts mentioned, we recommend the Real Madrid vs. Not only are the Gunners in much better form, but they have also been able to get more points on average away than the Blancas at home. However, since there is still a second leg, we expect a somewhat quieter game in which the two teams will approach each other. Especially in the first leg, the focus will be on avoiding mistakes. For this reason, we expect a maximum of four goals in this duel.

Alternatively, you can also put the Real Madrid vs. Arsenal Women’s odds for “both teams to score – yes” on the slip. This is primarily because both teams have plenty of offensive power and will therefore create chances. Nevertheless, we do not expect a goal festival in this game, because the Gunners’ defense is too strong for that. However, we still think the Blancas could score an honor goal at home, because without it, the second leg in London could be very unpleasant. You can find the best betting odds for this tip at Bet365.