Will the Blancos beat their city rivals?

This will be the tenth Champions League clash between the two city rivals from Madrid’s capital. The two teams have faced each other five times in the knockout rounds (including finals). The Blancos have prevailed on all five occasions, which is why the bet on the reigning champions winning the first leg of Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid seems to be very consistent in principle.

However, the Colchoneros not only used their dress rehearsal against Bilbao (1-0) at the weekend as an opportunity to move past the Whites in the table, who slipped up at Betis Sevilla (1-2). But the Rojiblancos have also won their last two competitive European games against the Merengues, which is why it is not entirely far-fetched to predict that Diego Simeone’s side will be able to put themselves in a good position at the Bernabéu when Real Madrid face Atletico Madrid.

The Whites, whose personnel situation has eased somewhat, particularly in defense, have just put down a big marker in the playoffs when they knocked Manchester City out of the competition with a 6-3 aggregate score. Overall, Real Madrid are now unbeaten in nine UEFA Champions League knockout matches this season (five wins, four draws) and have lost just one of their last 17 games (eleven wins, five draws).

Real Madrid – statistics & current form

Real Madrid were overtaken by the Colchoneros in La Liga on Saturday with a 2-1 defeat at Real Betis. The Blancos are back in the lead as defending champions since their show of force in the play-offs against Manchester City. Now, in their tenth clash with city rivals Atlético in Europe’s top flight – the two teams incidentally share the record for the most meetings between two teams from the same country with Chelsea v Liverpool – another show of force is expected.

Historically, there is much to suggest that Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid will be a good bet for the Galactic side to progress. Real have always prevailed in five knockout matches against their city rivals, including the two memorable finals in 2014 and 2016. The Merengues’ overall form in the knockout phase is also impressive. They have lost just once in their last 17 knockout matches (eleven wins, five draws). Since the 4-0 defeat to Manchester City in the 2022/23 semi-finals, Real have gone nine unbeaten in a row (five wins, four draws).

Can Real Madrid also shine in attack?

The Madrilenians have won all of their last five Champions League games, scoring at least three goals in each. Real have scored a total of 17 goals in this period, impressively demonstrating their attacking prowess. The Blancos are particularly difficult to beat at home: they have only lost one of their last 13 home games in the knockout stages of the top flight – against Chelsea in the 2022 quarter-finals, when they still managed to progress with a win at Stamford Bridge.

Kylian Mbappé plays a central role in this. The Frenchman has already scored 24 goals in 32 Champions League knockout matches and contributed three assists. He scored a treble in the recent 3:1 home win against Manchester City. It was his second hat-trick in the knockout phase of the top flight. Only Cristiano Ronaldo has scored more trebles in this stage of the tournament (four).

Vinícius Júnior also remains a key player. With seven goals and two assists, he is one of the most productive attacking players this season. If he scores or assists again against Atletico, it will be the fourth year in a row in which the Brazilian has scored at least ten points in a Champions League season – a record that only CR7 has achieved for the Blancos so far.

Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form

Atletico Madrid travel to the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu with confidence. The Rojiblancos have won all of their last five Champions League games, setting their best winning streak in this competition. Such a run had only previously been achieved in the 2016/17 season, when the Colchoneros reached the semi-finals. On that occasion, however, their run came to an end against their current opponents Real Madrid.

Diego Simeone’s team now want to overcome a historic weakness. The Rojiblancos have never won an away game against a Spanish club in the Champions League (one draw, four defeats). Four of these five games took place in the Simeone era, including three defeats at the Santiago Bernabéu at the city rivals, which is why the odds are now also against the visitors in Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid. Quotes above the 4.00 mark are advertised in the bookmakers’ numerous sports betting apps for tip 2.

Does Atletico Madrid remain efficient in offense?

The goal threat of Julián Álvarez could put an end to this dry spell. The Argentine has scored six goals in eight Champions League games for the madridistas. In the club’s history, only Diego Costa (2013/14) and Vavá (1958/59) scored more often (eight times each) in their first European Cup season. With a rate of one goal every 95 minutes, Álvarez is also one of the most efficient players in Champions League history.

Rodrigo De Paul, meanwhile, will play a key role in the build-up play. The midfielder impressed in the league phase with club records in several categories: most successful passes (374), most progressive runs (63) and most line-breaking passes (65). In the competition, only Bayern’s Joshua Kimmich played more passes that broke the opposition’s chain (20) than De Paul (19).

However, the Rojiblancos have lost all of their last three away games in the knockout phase of the Champions League (0:1 against Manchester City, 0:1 against Inter Milan and 2:4 against Borussia Dortmund). If this negative run continues, the task of beating Real Madrid in a European competition for the first time since 2017 could be a huge challenge…

Real Madrid – Atletico Madrid Head-to-head / H2H record

Head to head: 116 – 63 – 59

The Derbi Madrileño has been played a total of 238 times and Real Madrid clearly lead the direct comparison with 116 wins. The last three duels have all ended in a 1-1 draw, with Atletico Madrid having won two in a row against the Blancos in Europe. In the knockout In the knockout rounds, however, the Whites have beaten the Colchoneros on all five occasions – including twice in the Champions League final.

Real Madrid – Atletico Madrid betting tip

In the first leg between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, our prediction tends to favor the home-strong Blancos, who always have the aura of being record winners, especially in the Champions League. Although the Colchoneros are in fine form and have won all of their last five matches in the top flight, the Whites have gone nine games in a row in the knockout phase without defeat (five wins, four draws). Against this background, a home defeat at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu would certainly come as a surprise.

For the home-strong Rojiblancos, a draw at the Bernabéu would already be a great partial success, allowing them to secure a place in the quarter-finals at home next week. We expect Simeone’s team to play very defensively. Against this backdrop, the combined bet on the double chance 1X at under 3.5 goals offers a lot of value