Will there be Gladbach’s fifth consecutive away win at the Millerntor?
It has been a good four years since Borussia Mönchengladbach last played in the Champions League. The Foals were knocked out in the round of 16 after losing to Manchester City on aggregate. Next season, the Champions League anthem could be heard over the loudspeakers at Borussia-Park again. With seven matchdays to go, Seoane’s team are just two points behind the fourth-placed team. To build on this promising position, a bet on the team from the Lower Rhine should also pay off on Sunday afternoon between St. Pauli and Gladbach.
However, with the Kiezkickers, an uncomfortable opponent awaits, who annoyed league leaders Bayern for long periods of the game in the previous week and also urgently needs the points in the relegation battle itself. Hamburg are just three points above the relegation zone. Apart from that, it should be noted that, in view of the St. Pauli v Gladbach prediction, Alexander Blessin’s team have rarely been rewarded for their efforts at home this season. In particular, the lack of firepower in attack is and remains the main talking point for the former World Cup winners’ conquerors.
In the penultimate match of the 28th matchday in the Bundesliga, the odds in the three-way market between St. Pauli and Gladbach point to a very even 90 minutes. The 2.55 for the home win is opposed by 2.85 for the guests’ three points. Because the most popular betting providers also expect a rather low-scoring encounter, this mathematically increases the probability of a draw.
St. Pauli vs. Gladbach prediction AI
There is a special feature in the AI tips for the Bundesliga this weekend. In the home game of FC St. Pauli against Borussia Mönchengladbach, identical xG values (1.37) were calculated for both clubs. Nevertheless, the value is quite clearly in the bet on the away win, as the “BETSiE” estimates a 38% probability of victory for the Foals, while the bookmakers only calculate 34%. According to artificial intelligence, the three-way odds on the guest three should be 2.62. However, Betano is offering a top price of 2.85, so the St. Pauli vs. Gladbach AI forecast brings value with it for the foals.
St. Pauli – statistics & current form
Never before in the history of the club has FC St. Pauli had fewer goals than they currently have after 27 Bundesliga matchdays. The Blessin team has only managed to score 22 goals so far. The Kiezkicker therefore have the weakest offense in the German top flight, but before the final spurt begins, they still have their fate in their own hands. With only three points separating them from the relegation spot and five more points than the second-to-last team in the table, the fight against relegation from the Bundesliga still threatens to be exciting and exhausting.
St. Pauli home games don’t usually offer much in the way of spectacle
In addition to the overly harmless offense, it is also a disappointing home record that jeopardizes the season’s goal. They have only won three of their previous 13 home games. Three draws and seven defeats round off the balance. The total of just eight goals scored also corresponds to the lowest value in the league. But Hamburg can rely on their defense. 14 goals conceded in their own stadium are only surpassed by FSV Mainz 05.
Considering the fact that only 22 goals were scored in 13 home games of the promoted team and that in ten out of 13 cases, a bet on Under 2.5 would have been successful, I think that a prognosis of a tough and low-scoring game between St. Pauli and Gladbach is also an option for Sunday. The Interwetten app is offering 1.95 for a maximum of two goals in 90 minutes. If you want to bet on a maximum of one goal in the first half, you can still get 1.47 for it and possibly use it in a combination bet.
But on balance, I would not bet on the hosts winning. On the one hand, because Borussia is an extremely strong and away opponent. On the other hand, the “Boys in Brown” have never won two home games in a row in 2024/25. To end this curse, they will need to improve on their 1-0 home win over TSG Hoffenheim before the international break, when, as so often this season, they defended well but created few chances up front. It is not for nothing that they have the lowest number of shots per game in the Bundesliga.
Gladbach – Statistics & current form
On Sunday, Borussia Mönchengladbach could achieve something they have not managed in almost five years. The last time the team celebrated three Bundesliga victories in a row was in June 2020 under Marco Rose. After the recent successes at Werder Bremen (4:2) and at home against RB Leipzig (1:0) the team from the Lower Rhine region is now aiming for the third consecutive win. Although high odds of 2.85 are being offered at peak times in advance of the St. Pauli v Gladbach game, I definitely don’t see the guest as an outsider.
Once Gladbach takes the lead, it’s hard for the opponent
This subjective assessment is based primarily on the recent away strength. Tim Kleindienst and Co. have won four (!) consecutive Bundesliga away games. The European Cup contender even scored a whopping eleven goals, or almost three per game. In the separate away table, the Rhinelanders have already catapulted themselves into seventh place. The second-half tableau puts the traditional club in fourth place. In the overall standings, however, head coach Gerardo Seoane’s team are in fifth place. The former German champions are therefore justifiably dreaming of a return to the international stage.
One of the Foals’ great strengths this season is their ability to manage a lead. Borussia have been ahead 27 times in 27 matches, with a win ultimately secured in 13 of those cases. Only once did Gladbach have to settle for a draw after taking the lead. The statistics underline how important it would be to score the first goal of the game again in view of Sunday’s game, with the opponent from the Elbe having lost all 16 Bundesliga games this year in which they fell behind.
St. Pauli – Gladbach Direct comparison / H2H record
The first leg will be a happy memory for the Gladbach players. At the end of November, Borussia deservedly won 2-0 at home thanks to goals from Plea and Kleindienst in the first half. However, it was only the sixth BMG victory in the 17th meeting in the top German division. The majority of the encounters ended in a draw (seven), while St. Pauli at least managed to get the upper hand four times. It is also interesting to note that Gladbach have played at the Millerntor eight times in the Bundesliga and have always scored. A goal on Sunday would probably be enough to ensure that the team does not leave the field as the loser.
St. Pauli – Gladbach Tip
In the Bundesliga, Gerardo Seoane has played against promoted teams in eleven games so far. The current BMG head coach has yet to suffer a defeat (6-5-0). Should this impressive streak continue on Sunday, the Swiss resident would equal Pep Guardiola’s top score. I think the chances are quite good, because the foals are not traveling to the Millerntor as underdogs. Anyone who wins four away games in a row, is ranked fifth in the table and has one of the best and most in-form attacking duos in the Bundesliga will also get the chance to take three points in Hamburg.
It must be stated, however, that the Kiezkicker have recently performed well and have one of the most stable backlines in the top flight, but my St. Pauli vs. Gladbach tip is still on the X2 & Under 4.5, which is quoted at an appealing 1.75 at Betano. I choose six units as my stake. Risk-loving bettors can even speculate on the away win, although the home side would certainly be satisfied with a simple point. In any case, the eagerly awaited clash on the Elbe does not promise many goals.