Can Tottenham equalize the first-leg result?
On Thursday, 03/11/2025, the second leg of the Europa League tie between Tottenham Hotspurs and AZ Alkmaar will be played. The home side are under particular pressure because after the 0-1 defeat in the first leg, the Spurs absolutely must win this game. The bookmakers seem to consider this scenario to be very likely, because for Tottenham vs. Alkmaar, tip 1 is only quoted at 1.50. Can Ange Postecoglou’s team avert the next disaster?
We now want to answer this question with the help of our Tottenham v Alkmaar prediction. First, let’s take a look at the home and away records of the two teams. The hosts are doing a little better, because at home the English were able to get an average of 1.68 points per game and won 50% of the games. On the road, the away team only managed an average of 1.33 points and a win rate of 33%. In their own stadium, the favorites seem to have a good chance of equalizing the result from the first leg.
In the comparison of form, however, the roles are not confirmed, because Spurs have only won two of their last six competitive games and are therefore anything but in good form. The Dutch team have been doing much better recently, with only one defeat in their last nine games, and their form has been improving significantly in recent weeks. However, we are not satisfied with the Tottenham vs. Alkmaar odds for an away win, because here we have to clearly differentiate between the different qualities of the opposing teams.
Tottenham – Statistics & current form
Tottenham have had an extremely weak season so far and just can’t get back on track. Ange Postecoglou’s team have already been knocked out of the two cup competitions and are unlikely to make a breakthrough in the Premier League either. The same could happen in the UEFA Europa League, because after the 0-1 in the first leg, Spurs now have their backs to the wall. The return game is therefore the most important game of the season, because if the hosts cannot correct the result, the club will miss out on international competition in the coming season. Can Spurs still save the current season?
Tottenham will score for sure
Age Postecoglou’s team can hardly be criticized for their offensive play, having scored 85 goals in 44 games (Ø 1.93), which is almost two goals per game on average. Moreover, the home side have only gone without scoring in seven of their matches this season, finding the back of the net in 84% of their competitive matches. At home, the rate is even better at 91%. In addition, with Johnson, Solanke, Son, Maddison and Kulusevski, the hosts have no fewer than five players with at least 17 points. That’s an absolutely insane number!
Tottenham with problems in defense
With 62 conceded goals in 44 games (Ø 1.41), the Spurs’ defense is often too vulnerable. Nevertheless, Ange Postecoglou’s team has kept a clean sheet eleven times and thus conceded a goal in “only” 75% of the games. In their own stadium, Tottenham even managed to keep a clean sheet in 27% of competitive matches. It seems that the hosts lack the necessary consistency or concentration. Individual mistakes are not uncommon for the English team. We are curious to see how they will fare against AZ Alkmaar.
Alkmaar – Statistics & current form
Alkmaar can be absolutely satisfied with the season so far and should therefore also go into the second leg with a positive feeling. Maarten Martens’ team is in the final of the KNVB Beker (21/04/2025), has one foot in the Europa League quarter-finals and has also achieved decent results in the Eredivisie so far. In the Dutch top flight, AZ are “only” in sixth place, but with only one point behind the international places, there is still a lot possible. Will the Kaasboeren continue their good run?
Alkmaar can annoy Tottenham
With 70 goals in 39 competitive matches (Ø 1.80), the away team’s offense is doing an excellent job and is capable of being dangerous against any opponent. For this reason, Maarten Martens’ team have only gone five games without scoring, putting the ball in the net in 87% of their matches. However, the rate is considerably worse away from home, at just 72%. By comparison, at home AZ is at 100%. So there is a clear tendency that seems to be anything but advantageous for the second leg. A goal for the guests is therefore by no means a forgone conclusion and could prove decisive in the end.
Alkmaar is very solid defensively
But it’s not just in offense that the Kaasboeren are doing very well, they are also doing very well defensively. With only 44 goals conceded in 39 games (Ø 1.13), the Dutch are even close to the golden mark of 1.0. It is therefore no surprise that Maarten Martens’ team have kept a clean sheet 13 times so far, allowing a goal to be scored in just 67% of competitive games. Even away from home, the rate is only 72%, so Tottenham faces a difficult task. However, we doubt whether that will be enough to keep a clean sheet in the end.
Tottenham – Alkmaar direct comparison / H2H record
At the time of writing this forecast, we have not yet been able to identify a clear favorite, because, apart from the individual class, which is also reflected in the market value of the two teams, the two teams are on an equal footing. This is also confirmed by the direct comparison, because with one win each, the H2H comparison is also completely balanced. We therefore believe that the Tottenham vs. Alkmaar betting odds are a little too far apart.
Tottenham – Alkmaar betting tip
In summary of all the facts mentioned, we have decided on a Tottenham vs. Alkmaar tip for a Spurs victory in connection with under 5.5 goals. This is primarily because the home side perform significantly better in their own stadium than away and also have more individual quality. In addition, the away team is not particularly strong away from home and has already lost a game at Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium this season. Furthermore, we expect rather few goals, because in the only two duels between the two teams, there was only one goal each time. AZ will do everything they can to save the narrow lead over time and sit deep.
Alternatively, you can add the Tottenham vs. Alkmaar odds for the hosts to advance to the slip. As already mentioned, we expect the home side to win. Even if the game goes into extra time after 90 minutes, the momentum will be on Spurs’ side due to the second leg. In addition, Ange Postecoglou’s team has significantly more experience, which could also be an advantage in a penalty shootout. The best betting odds for this tip can be found at what is probably the most well-known bookmaker in Europe, namely Bet365.