Will Uruguay suffer their first home qualifying defeat against the world champions?
Without Lionel Messi, the world champions from Argentina have to play the next two internationals in March. The 37-year-old, who leads the CONMEBOL zone’s goal scoring chart with six goals, is suffering from muscular problems and has therefore not been nominated by coach Lionel Scaloni. Messi will therefore not only miss the difficult away game in Montevideo on Friday night, but also the clash against arch-rivals Brazil next week. Read on to find out how the absence of Messi will initially affect the Uruguay vs. Argentina tip.
The fact is that the “Celeste” and the “Albiceleste”, currently the two best teams in South America, will face each other in a direct duel. At least that’s what the standings in the World Cup qualifiers suggest. The Gauchos still lead the standings by five points, but now have one more defeat to their name than the two-time world champions from the continent’s smallest Spanish-speaking country. Furthermore, a prediction about the supposed underdog would have already been accepted in the first leg, which Uruguay played in Argentina…
The difficulty that even bookmakers with a German license have in naming a favorite in advance is underlined by the odds offered in the three-way market between Uruguay and Argentina. Curiously, Interwetten is only offering a 2.90 top offer for a draw.
Uruguay – Statistics & current form
The Uruguayan national team has had a good World Cup qualification so far. The positive results are closely linked to head coach Marcelo Bielsa, who has been in charge since May 2023 and has a positive record so far. After 21 international matches under “El Loco”, there have been twelve wins, five draws and only four defeats. After the disappointing early exit at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, the “Celeste” have made good progress again. This was also underlined by their third place at last year’s Copa America.
In three of the last six World Cup qualifiers, the Urus didn’t score a goal
In retrospect, however, a small dip in form could be observed in the last six international matches. Only one of these six matches was won. Instead, there were four draws and even a 0-1 defeat in Peru. Nevertheless, the starting position in the World Cup qualifiers is relatively comfortable for the former world champions, who are currently in second place. They have a seven-point lead over the team in seventh place.
For the home game between Uruguay and Argentina, the prediction of a home win does not play a major role in my considerations. The background to this is the often disappointing offense in recent games, which is accompanied, however, by an extremely stable defense. Three of the last six qualifiers ended 0-0. In five of these matches, the under 2.5 would have passed, and in four cases, the under 1.5 would have passed as well.
A goal-filled spectacle therefore seems rather unlikely in the night from Friday to Saturday, especially since Bielsa’s team have yet to lose a home game in the current World Cup qualifiers (4-2-0) and have only conceded a total of three goals. The 11th-ranked team in the world rankings certainly also has great respect for the quality of the world champions, which also suggests a rather uneventful first half with risk minimization on both sides. Incidentally, you can significantly reduce your risk with the large number of free bets without a deposit. Especially if you want to take advantage of high odds on the X or a goalless first 45 minutes in the top match Uruguay against Argentina.
Expected line-up:
Rochet; Varela, Gimenez, Olivera, Saracchi; Valverde, Ugarte, Bentancur; Pellistri, Nunez, Aguirre
Argentina – statistics & current form
The Argentine national football team continues to be the measure of all things in world football. The team of long-time head coach Lionel Scaloni is not only the reigning world champion, but also won the Copa America last year, the South American equivalent of the European Championship. The Gauchos are also leading the CONMBEOL zone World Cup qualifiers by a comfortable margin. With a five-point lead over second place and as many as twelve points over seventh place, their renewed participation in the 2026 World Cup finals is a formality.
Argentina’s defense is still world-class
Nevertheless, the betting odds between Uruguay and Argentina already show that one should be careful about betting on an away win for the Albiceleste in Montevideo. On the one hand, because Lionel Messi, the top scorer in the World Cup qualifiers, is unavailable for the March internationals due to injury. On the other hand, the Scaloni team has rarely covered itself in glory away from home recently.
For example, none of the three qualifying away games in 2024 could be won. In Paraguay and Colombia, they even suffered 2-1 defeats. In Venezuela, the star ensemble also had to settle for a disappointing 1-1 draw. Nevertheless, the Argentinians continue to be the best away team in South American World Cup qualifying. Nevertheless, I would advise against betting on the away three and instead focus on the aforementioned 2.90 for a point-sharing.
At least the Argentine defense can be relied on in any case. There have been eight clean sheets in twelve meetings. The seven goals conceded in total is also an absolutely top figure. I therefore expect another very concentrated defensive performance from the world champions, who would surely be happy with a draw in Montevideo. Consequently, it cannot be assumed that the Scaloni team, which will be full of world stars, will play for a win just before the end of the game in the event of a draw. In the end, we wouldn’t even be surprised if the game between the second and the first ended in a draw.
Expected line-up:
Martinez; Montiel, Balerdi, Otamendi, Tagliafico; De Paul, Fernandez, Mac Allister; Correa, Martinez, Alvarez
Uruguay – Argentina Direct comparison / H2H record
The Uruguay v Argentina fixture is a real classic on the South American continent. There have been as many as 200 meetings between the teams of these nations. With 93 wins, 59 defeats and 48 draws, the Argentinians have the edge. However, the most recent direct duels are far more relevant than the historical view of this match. As mentioned, Uruguay surprisingly won the first leg 2-0. Before that, however, there were three Argentine successes, all of which were achieved without conceding a goal. In three of the last four home qualifiers, the Uruguayans also failed to score against the Gauchos.
Uruguay – Argentina Tip
The top game of the South American World Cup qualifiers will take place in Montevideo during the night from Friday to Saturday. Second-placed Uruguay will face leaders Argentina. Both teams can already plan to take part in the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Canada and Mexico. However, the direct duel between the former world champions always has a special appeal, especially because the “Celeste” won the first leg at the “Albiceleste” 2-0. Argentina is insisting on revenge, but will have to do so without top scorer and superstar Lionel Messi.
Generally speaking, I expect the teams to meet on equal terms and, as is so often the case in the CONMBEOL zone, caution and risk minimization will be in the foreground. That’s why I see an appealing value in the Uruguay vs. Argentina tip on a goalless first half. At Interwetten, a 2.35 is offered at the top, which I play with four units as a stake. Alternatively, it also makes sense to put the X on the betting slip or possibly to go home with an Asian under bet on 2 goals (AH). The latter approach brings a 1.74 at Bet365.