Will Sabalenka win the Miami title?
Aryna Sabalenka qualified for the final in Miami with a dominant performance against Jasmine Paolina and is aiming for her eighth title win at the WTA 1000 level. In the WTA Miami Final 2025, the world number one from Belarus is rated as the favorite by the betting providers without tax. The bookmakers are currently only offering odds in the mid-1.30s for a corresponding Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula tip.
Since October 2023, Aryna Sabalenka has not lost a single match against the American. In their last two meetings – both in the United States, mind you – Aryna Sabalenka came out on top against the local heroine. Although Jessica Pegula played a strong tournament, it is obvious that Aryna Sabalenka will triumph against the challenger from the United States this time as well.
The American already stumbled in the semi-finals against Alexandra Eala and only made it to the final in three sets. This time, we even rule out the fourth-seeded player winning a set and instead tend towards the Belarusian winning in straight sets.
Aryna Sabalenka – Statistics & current form
In Indian Wells, Aryna Sabalenka lost to Mirra Andreeva in the final by the narrowest of margins. Now the Belarusian is on the verge of her next final at the 1000 level. In the Miami final, the world number one will face Jessica Pegula and thus get the next chance to win a title. It would be the eighth 1000 title in Aryna Sabalenka’s current career.
It would be the first singles title in Miami for the Belarusian tennis player. In the six previous appearances, the quarterfinals were the best tournament result for Aryna Sabalenka. Therefore, reaching the final of the WTA Miami 2025 is all the more gratifying. Aryna Sabalenka has not yet lost a single set in the entire tournament.
Among others, she put in a dominant performance in the semi-final against Jasmine Paolini. The 26-year-old not only won the match against the Italian without dropping a set, but also only conceded four games over the two sets. In particular, her success rate on her own serves was impressive against a returning player like Jasmine Paolini.
Will Sabalenka take the momentum from the semi-finals with her?
Aryna Sabalenka served with a 78% first serve success rate against the world number seven from Italy. The world number one did not have to give up any of the eight service games against Jasmine Paolini. By comparison, Aryna Sabalenka was broken a total of four times in the quarterfinals against Qinwen Zheng.
In the last 11 matches, the 26-year-old only dropped a set in the 2025 Indian Wells final. Aryna Sabalenka ultimately lost that match 1-2 to Mirra Andreeva. In contrast, the Belarusian won 10 of the last 11 meetings without dropping a set. That is one of the reasons why betting on a 2-0 victory for Sabalenka in the WTA Miami 2025 final is worth your while.
Betting fans who want to place a bet on Sabalenka vs. Pegula winning without losing a set will find the best odds for this at Betano.
Jessica Pegula – statistics & current form
Jessica Pegula also managed the semi-final against Alexandra Eala in three sets after the exhausting quarter-final against Emma Raducanu. After the comeback in the first set – the world number four was trailing 2:5 at one point – Jessica Pegula surprisingly lost the second set to the young Filipina.
It was only in the deciding set that the US-American managed a comfortable victory. In the third set, Jessica Pegula did not lose a single service game and played with a success rate of 74% after her own serves. The 31-year-old will have to build on this against Aryna Sabalenka, otherwise even winning a set will be difficult.
In her current professional career, Jessica Pegula has already won three times on the 1000 series. She celebrated two of these three victories at the Canadian Open. In Miami, her best result so far has been a semi-final appearance. This year’s final is a new milestone in the Miami 1000 tournament.
Tired Jessica Pegula doomed to fail?
In their last seven meetings, Jessica Pegula has only won once against Aryna Sabalenka. Consequently, the American is also the clear underdog in the upcoming match. Jessica Pegula lost the six matches against Aryna Sabalenka without winning a set. The only time the 31-year-old beat the Belarusian was at the WTA Finals in 2023. Jessica Pegula won that group-stage match 2-0 without losing a set.
If you also want to place a bet on Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula this time, you can also use a free bet without a deposit to minimize your own risk. All you need to do is successfully verify your account.
Jessica Pegula last won the Canadian Open in 2024. At the Cincinnati Open 2024, however, the American lost to Aryna Sabalenka in the final – in two sets, mind you.
Aryna Sabalenka – Jessica Pegula head-to-head record
In the last eight meetings between the two players, Aryna Sabalenka has beaten Jessica Pegula six times. The American only won the first duel in August 2020 against the then inexperienced Belarusian and the match at the WTA Finals 2023 in Cancun. Last year, the two players met twice. Aryna Sabalenka won both encounters without losing a set, 2-0 each time.
Aryna Sabalenka – Jessica Pegula Betting tip
Aryna Sabalenka dominated at will in Indian Wells 2025 and did not lose a single set until the final against Mirra Andreeva. The final defeat against the young Russian woman was therefore all the more surprising. In Miami, the world number one continued her strong performance from Indian Wells. Once again, she did not lose a single set.
The showdown against Jessica Pegula is now in the final. Aryna Sabalenka won both meetings against the American last year without dropping a set. Jessica Pegula has stumbled recently, losing at least one set to the competition in three of her last four matches. In her current form, the 31-year-old cannot be trusted to pull off a coup in the final. We are opting for a 2-0 victory for Sabalenka against Pegula and are betting five out of ten possible units on this.